Beazley Share Discussion Threads

[ahmedjbh] 28/8/2007 13:34

Im loving it, its a long term dream this one.

[ahmedjbh] 17/8/2007 09:37

quiet board, often a good sign, im happy to keep making the money all by my self.

[spanishomlette] 30/7/2007 09:41

Insurer Beazley toasted record half year profits Monday, more than doubling from the same period last year. Profit before tax for the six months to 30 June leapt to �60.2m from �28.3m a year earlier. The combined ratio, which measures claims and costs as a percentage of premiums, was better at 87% versus 90% in 2006.

[spanishomlette] 27/7/2007 13:37

Buy Beazley*
Says David Linton of TipsTracker.com - 25/07/07

Before we take a look at my chosen stock for UK-Analyst today, let's just reflect on what we have been saying to TipsTracker members over the past couple of years. We have been extremely bullish on the UK stock market and have given our long term targets for the market that are well north of here. We have also given accurate assessments on which sectors look best at which times. While we have been very bullish, we have at the same time said to sell hundreds (yes hundreds) of UK stocks that have been tipped by the press or where our members have requested us to monitor them for them. But still don't take my word for all this, see for yourself the full recording of we said at the Master Investor Show in London back in March - Watch the Webcast Here

Perhaps one of our best kept secrets, however, is our regular Top 10 UK stocks lists that we put out. And last weeks list was put up on the site for our members last week. Now this is not me just saying, 'this looks good' and here's another tip. The fact is that after telling members about these 10 stocks last week, I bought all 10 of them a couple of days later for myself investing several thousand pounds in each one of them myself. Beazley is just one of these stocks and although it has already risen over 7% since being tipped, we are telling you about it because we believe it has further to run. To find out about the other 9 stocks in the list, see - www.TipsTracker.com




*Please note I bought Beazley shares after tipping them and still own them

So before we take a look at Beazley (BEZ.L), let's just look at the character of the stocks in our regular Top 10s tables. I told all TipsTracker members about these stocks telling them that I would be buying from the Top 10 myself 24 hours later giving them the opportunity to get in ahead of me as usual. So what's good about the stocks in these lists each month?

1. They have been chosen for their upside potential (20% minimum) in a relatively short timeframe. None of this 'the fundamentals look good rubbish' and the price might go up one day. These are stocks that are breaking out now and precise price targets are given.

2. These stocks all demonstrate the right risk/reward characteristic where the upside outweighs the downside by 3 to 1 or better dramatically stacking the odds in their favour.

3. Each stock has been meticulously checked for a strong Relative Strength and Volume Accumulation measures. There is a weight of money buying these shares.

4. I buy some of these stocks myself and keep buying from the new lists each time with an average investment of several thousand pounds in each one, putting my money where my mouth is. Actions speak louder than words.

Get into these Top 10 lists with me and members each month - See TipsTracker.com

"I want to tell you that my TipsTracker Portfolio has been my best performing portfolio this year!" Master Investor Delegate

So why Beazley now?

Below is the Point and Figure chart for Beazley which met my scanning criteria last week. The scan looked for stocks with Upside Price targets where the Reward to Risk Ratio is greater than 3, where the shares are in an uptrend and the upside target is at least 10% away. In running this scan in the Updata Highlighter I got around 25 UK stocks that met the criteria in a few minutes. I narrowed this down by a further 20 stocks by scrolling the charts with a line chart with Relative Strength and On Balance Volume on (chart above). The Top 10 were chosen based on my gut feel of what looked best in these last 20.




Now the Beazley Point and Figure chart had all the characteristics you would want. A long column of Xs showing uninterrupted buying thrust. More and more buyers coming in all the time with very little profit taking. There is an upside targets of 200p which was then 23% away from the price. Everything looked great propelling Beazley into our Top 10 list and having told TipsTracker Members my Top 10, I duly bought the shares myself a couple of days later. I must stress - I still own shares in Beazley.

Another interesting point on Beazley is that we said that they needed to make a new high ideally and it would be good to see on balance volume turning. Well now we have a new high on the shares, this gives us a stronger conviction to the target.

So what stop should you use now?

Now, it's true that Beazley has jumped several percent and that members have had the benefit of that rise, but the risk has been reduced with the new price high. The target is still nearly 30p away and our Optimised Stop loss (the mainstay of the TipsTracker Service) is 10% and matches the P&F stop of 152p now - around 15p downside. The upside clearly outweighs the downside. So you have 30/15 (2.0 RR) - not quite the 3 to 1 ratio we had last week, but still good for upside in the high teens from here.

Remember the Golden Rule of Investment - Eggs and Baskets!

Now you may be reading this and thinking I am just going to buy these shares and see if David's right. Don't! I mean buy the shares by all means, but don't buy them in isolation. If you want to get the average weighted performance that my regular Top 10 stocks will give you, you need to buy as many of the ones from the latest list as you can afford. I would recommend a minimum of three of them. If you do choose less than 10 you should conduct some more work in narrowing them down. It may be that Beazley shares are now less attractive compared to others in my latest list and this could be especially true if you are not buying several of the latest shares we've identified.

The best thing you can do is get this list now and decide how to invest in these latest 10 shares yourself. To get this list and a whole lot more - Sign up to TipsTracker

Conclusion

Buy Beazley with a target of 200p and a stop of 152p.

[amla] 08/3/2007 12:57

Fantastic results.Looking to buy at 135p

[utsushi] 28/2/2007 22:20

Double top?

[adriand] 19/12/2006 10:27

Sector consolidation?

[lanzarotelady] 15/3/2006 16:13

I've just bought in too.

Rates are rising, P/E very low, beat analyst expectations by a long way. Underwriting tight, A rated.

[mart] 15/3/2005 07:39

Anybody around. Seem like a good set of results to me, but then I'm not an accountant!

[andysand] 20/2/2005 17:30

Been away for a while...

The rise will come because people will notice the low rating of BEZ as it comes up to the results. I have seen it so many times! We will get to 130p in due course....


Andy

[theberg] 16/2/2005 11:59

Scott18,

BEZ Results out Tuesday 15th March 2005


RNS Number:0829H
Beazley Group PLC
06 January 2005


6 January 2005


NEWS RELEASE



Beazley Group plc


Notification of Preliminary Results

Beazley Group plc confirms it will announce its results for the twelve months
ended 31 December 2004 on Tuesday 15 March 2005.

For further information, please contact:

Finsbury
Melanie Gerlis Tel: [phone]

[scott18] 03/2/2005 21:06

andysand

why do you expect ahuge rise mid/late feb?

[andysand] 31/1/2005 13:02

Just came on to my radar:) Bought in and expect to see a huge rise in the shares around mid to late Feb.


Andy

[geoffrey] 02/1/2005 16:30

It seems strange to me that there are no FBB comments since 28/2/2004 in spite of Rights issue at 84p(80% subscribed)and forecast for a 4p dividend for 2005. I bought following recent Investors Chronicle recommendation. Price has been stable at 86p and any comment would be appreciated.Also not much news on SVB FBB but assume they are still more risky at 32p after their fall last year? Both stocks have significant potential this year IMHO !

[paddyfool] 28/2/2004 10:00

The thing also to remember is that these guys operate in a subscription market i.e. they all participate in the same risks. Therefore it is extremely unlikely that any one of them would have a significantly worse/better claim experience. I for one am concerned that theirs is so low. I fear they may pay for this in future years.

[alexandrews] 28/2/2004 00:38

Marc,

Yes, their combined ratio of 80% looks very attractive on the surface, but, as I remarked in my initial post, I feel it was flattered by the very low claim ratio of 41% - the lowest of the dozen or so ILV's I've looked at - whereas it has a worryingly high expense ratio of 39% (second worst only to SVB's 41.4%) when the others reported a figure in the 26-33% range. What's the likelihood of the claim ratio falling even lower? Personally, I want to see evidence of the expense ratio heading towards the median level - until then, I'll maintain my "unattractive" rating on them 8-)

No investment advice intended.

Alex

[keepfaith] 24/2/2004 12:38

Alex,

Beazley has quite a few things going for it. The main ones in my view are :

- Premium recovery : rate increases for Director insurance and medical negligence of 29% and increases of 54% for professional indemnity insurance. This should have very positive effect on the financials.

- Capacity increase : Beazley has raised its capacity (amount of business that can be written by syndicates) by 12% to £737m for 2004.

- Combined ratio : the combined ratio has been cut from 98% in the first half of 2002 to 80% in the latest period. The combined ratio is a measure of both the claims made against and the cost of running a syndicate, so the lower it is the better.

Marc

[alexandrews] 23/2/2004 18:06

Aha! There is someone else watching these. If they can hit 13.3p, then, yes they would appear to be suitably valued, but at 4.6p EPS they are currently on a P/E of 21. The 13.3p EPS forecast is quite a growth in profits - presumably it assumes they will not take any big hits from claims over this calendar year... far too much of an assumption for my liking given that there's quite a lot of this year left to go 8-)

No investment advice intended.

Alex

[keepfaith] 22/2/2004 14:53

Hi AlexAndrews,

Numis Securities forecasts pre-tax profits of £15.2m this year, feeding through to earnings per share of 4.6p, rising to £43.8m and 13.3p next.

That would give a modest rolling-forward price-earnings ratio of 8.5.

[alexandrews] 22/2/2004 13:35

Just had a quick look at these - from interims to 30/06/2003 (v 6m to 31/12/2002):

- NTA 61p (v 60p)
- combined ratio 80% at 41/39 split (v 94% at 60/34 split)
- PBT £2.54m
- EPS 0.7p (v LPS 1.7p)
- dividend 0.25p

Annualising these gives a P/E of 68(!) and a yield of 0.5%. This does not seem to be particularly inspiring especially given a combined ratio of only 80%, and the increase in the expense ratio from 34% to 39% is a little worrying - if the claims ratio had again been 60% instead of 41%, the combined ratio would have gone up from 94% to 99%...

The F/Y results on 23/03/2004 will hopefully go some way to explain such a seemingly high rating, but in the meantime does anyone have any reasons of their own?

No investment advice intended.

Alex

[rambutan2] 13/3/2003 00:04

Beazley Furlonge, the Lloyd's managing agency owned by Beazley Group plc ('Beazley'), announces the results of its managed Lloyd's Syndicate 623 in respect of the 2000 year of account and gives an update on the forecast for the 2001 year of account.

Results

Syndicate 623 delivered profit of 0.6% on capacity for the 2000 year of account. This is within the range forecast in December, when the forecasts were last updated. This profit is after Names' expenses including managing agent's fees and commission. This strong performance continues the syndicate's unbroken track record of delivering profits to its names.

Forecast

The forecast for 2001 remains breakeven, with the estimate for the World Trade Center loss remaining at £100m gross and £20m net. The 2002 forecast is a preliminary estimate and as there is still significant business on risk, this forecast assumes a normal loss development pattern and no significant catastrophes.

Year of Account Current Estimate Previous Estimate Capacity

2001 (2.5)% - 2.5% (2.5)% - 2.5% £215.3m
2002 10.0% - 15.0% N/A £403m

As announced in December, from 1 January 2003 Beazley Furlonge has managed both Syndicate 623 and Syndicate 2623 as a single underwriting unit, with a combined capacity of £660m. Beazley's maiden results, for the six months ended 31 December 2002, will be released on 24 April 2003.

Andrew Beazley, Chief Executive of Beazley, commented:

'We are pleased that we were able to deliver profits for the closed year. 2001 benefited from the improvement in terms and conditions and the current favourable trading environment is expected to continue throughout this year. Our successful IPO in November means that we have the flexibility to continue to create value from this positive underwriting environment.'

[redchef] 18/2/2003 09:50

Triangle is now complete, volume has shrunk away, everyone stands and waits, no one dares breathe, what's going to happen next ?????

Someone has obviously been buying all available at the lows on the rising line of the Triangle. Will they now show their colours?