Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

[unastubbs] 06/9/2022 08:56

hopefully augurs well for results tomorrow...

[lafiamma] 06/9/2022 07:25

Positive update from BKG this morning:
"Berkeley has continued to trade well during the first four months of the new financial year, with the value of underlying sales ahead of the financial year ended 30 April 2022. The good level of demand continues to support pricing above business plan levels, which is sufficient to cover cost increases on a blended basis across Berkeley's developments. Consequently, Berkeley is on track to meet its profit guidance and deliver a pre-tax profit for the current financial year ending 30 April 2023 of £600 million and £625 million for the year ended 30 April 2024"

[medieval blacksmith] 02/9/2022 16:53

If house prices crash land will adjust accordingly. House builders should offer free energy for a year to first time buyers. £3/4K saved versus compensating a landlord would look rather attractive.

[medieval blacksmith] 02/9/2022 16:50

It isn’t HSBC, it is some little nerdy tosspot with an Excel spreadsheet. WTF do they know.

[tornado12] 02/9/2022 13:06

Brought a few more sub 400p. The Englishman’s castle is his home so confident in medium term on share price recovery with some risk on divi levels, but generally pays something. Long term play here

[wskill] 02/9/2022 10:43

Lucky that profits are ahead of expectations hate to think what the share price would be if we had missed them.

Bought a few more today to keep a decent average price,

Highlights from July trading update

-- Strong nationwide demand sustained throughout the year, resulting in net private reservations per active outlet(2) per week of 0.81 (FY21: 0.78)(3) .

-- Total home completions returned to pre-pandemic levels, with 17,908 homes completed in the year (FY21: 17,243 homes) including 746 from JVs (FY21: 726).

-- Adjusted profit before tax is anticipated to be in the range of GBP1,050m and GBP1,060m, slightly ahead of current market consensus expectations(4) at GBP1,048m (FY21: GBP919.7m). This is stated before adjusted item costs of c. GBP412m (FY21: costs of GBP107.5m).

[unastubbs] 02/9/2022 10:23

true.

results on wednesday. i'm expecting them to be strong as per previous updates. predictions are for a 27p dividend. however, everything depends on the forward guidance. so much bad stuff must already be in the price but the market can keep on handing out the punishment for just as long as it takes.

i've been very much asleep while this has just melted since I bought in February. been too busy with other stuff i guess. far too late for me to sell, so I will just have to hold. my portfolio is looking pretty sickly right now, it's loaded with UK-centric stocks. not a good place to be methinks!

oh well - GLA, keep it there!

[dodge meister] 02/9/2022 10:05

Bank predictions are interesting...they have been wrong for the last 9 months, people now believe they are right,lol.

[unastubbs] 02/9/2022 10:00

for info hsbc new target price is £4.30

[dodge meister] 02/9/2022 09:30

The talk of doom and gloom is summer madness and help to get internet traffic to websites. If we are in recession by Q4 (BOE prediction ignoring any government action), the higher gas prices (down 15% today) will constrain the economy and help regulate internally generated inflation. Given the lag in effects of interest rate rises, the BOE wont keep raising rates when in a recession it will do a wait and see as it wants a mild increase in unemployment but not a depression. A couple more rises will about do it.

People are joining the cumulative worst case scenarios. Look to mortgage approvals for indication, hxxps://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals

[sikhthetech] 01/9/2022 12:41

It's not just interest rates..



sikhthetech - 29 Jul 2022 - 14:07:21 - 159339 of 161806 Share Ideas:
Thorpematt,

Re #319

I posted 0.25% interest rate rises as I think rises are likely to be in multiples of this and so makes calculating additional interest easier than using 0.1%.

Approx:
A 0.25% rise in mortgage interest on a £100k mortgage is around £20 pm.

Whereas energy price caps increase would be (forecast Oct) around £180pm, so is eq of around 2%-2.5% increase in mortgage interest based on a 100k mortgage.

That's on top of interest rate rises, fuel price rises, food price rises.


which brings me back to:

sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.
;-)

[squintyflinty1] 01/9/2022 12:20

Entirely agree with you. I've sold all my Barrat shares and all my Taylor Wimpey shares.

[squintyflinty1] 01/9/2022 12:17

If mortgage rate go up to 10% as predicted then there will be a housing crash. This could easily wipe a £1 off the share price.

[porsche1945] 31/8/2022 15:54

Cant work out how this is still above 4 quid, outlook for housing and U.K. in general is utterly horrific, years of recession and high rates falling living standards, brexit fiasco, poor covid response, massive debt high taxes, inflation slated to be 3x higher than france ffs as U.K. energy poor, housing is gonna tank like ‘08.

[photogenic] 25/8/2022 22:23

Does anyone know the date of the next divi and what date do you need to own the shares from, thanks!

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2022 21:27

V11SLR,

New builds usually command a premium anyway. During a downturn that premium significantly reduces or disappears altogether.

There are major affordability problems.

The Oct Energy price cap will be announced tomorrow. That, as well BoE interest rate decisions to combat inflation, GDP to determine how deep a recession will be, will ultimately decide the direction..

HBs falling as expected - April onwards..


sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price

[v11slr] 25/8/2022 21:10

High energy prices could mean a premium for well insulated low energy homes and that generally means new. Anybody fancy a single glazed, single brick Victorian terrace at the moment?

[elephanthunt] 25/8/2022 18:41

I really appreciate the detailed responses I've received. Thanks guys.

[wskill] 25/8/2022 18:10

Looking good to me plot value for Barratt £25.7 Billion P/TNAV OF 1.3 its at the low end thats for sure lots of fat to get it through any recession .Bought a few more but WTFDIK I have been wrong before.


Key Ratios for Persimmon, Barratt and Berkeley
Index FTSE 100 FTSE 100 FTSE 100
Market cap £5.4 bn £4.7 bn £4.3 bn
Forecast revenues £3.8 bn £5.2 bn £2.5 bn
Forecast P/E 6.9x 5.7x 9.7x
Forecast P/TNAV 2.6x 1.3x 1.8x
Prospective dividend yield 13.8% 8.3% 5.6%
Average selling price per home £245,597 £300,000 £603,000
Number of plots for development 89,052 85,500 66,163
Value of plots £21.9 bn £25.7 bn £40 bn

[lafiamma] 25/8/2022 18:10

Salver2 I was about to ask exactly the same thing, they look way off to me too!

[salver2] 25/8/2022 17:53

How did they get those price to net asset value ? Barratt trade under asset value as well as Vistry according to other sites

[unastubbs] 25/8/2022 17:06

here is the piece from Shares magazine today on BDEV, also some data from the same article comparing all the ftse350 builders