Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 07/8/2022 14:40

It isn't all about interest rates....

Approx:
A 0.25% rise in mortgage interest on a £100k mortgage is around £20 pm.

Whereas energy price caps increase would be (forecast Oct) around £180pm++, so is eq of around 2%-2.5% increase in mortgage interest based on a 100k mortgage.

That's on top of interest rate rises, fuel price rises, food price rises.

[tornado12] 06/8/2022 09:36

Seems from reports the market is softening with flatening of house prices. I don’t expect a complete tanking unless the inflation doubles again into next year. I think below 450p is a good investment point and 400p would be ideal. Waiting patiently …

[888icb] 04/8/2022 14:48

All the house builders were down 5% on Tuesday so it was already accounted for

[creditcrunchies] 04/8/2022 13:46

Interesting the market didn't react

[unastubbs] 28/7/2022 12:11

nailed down I should say. in the barclays results analyst call the FD said they were going with 2.5% base for the end of 22. but shares seem to look further out than that hence they (housebuilders i mean) are rising a little right now. the strong balance sheet here plus the structural dearth of houses in the UK will see these right in the medium and long term. i'm happy to hold.

[creditcrunchies] 28/7/2022 12:07

I wonder how the market will react to a BoE hike of 0.5% on 4th August? It seems quite likely after 0.75 Fed hike

[medieval blacksmith] 25/7/2022 10:09

EVEN if it is slowing down that doesn't mean house builders are a poor investment. This news/expectation/fear is ALREADY over-discounted in the price.

[sikhthetech] 24/7/2022 16:17

New housing market data shows ‘start of the long-awaited slowdown’

[unastubbs] 24/7/2022 15:23

interesting beckers thanks

[beckers2008] 21/7/2022 14:48

Good news for the longs here, Marshall Wace have been buying back shares and reduced their short position to less than 0.50% and notified on the 19th July.
Looks like the bears are retreating.

[medieval blacksmith] 21/7/2022 14:45

Anyone here think Barratt might be making a bid for Countryside Partnerships?

A billion in cash.

Update investors in September as to capital allocation.....

Countryside putting itself up for sale.

Actions and timings all fit in and CSP EV within affordability.

[creditcrunchies] 15/7/2022 13:41

Nothing goes down in a straight line otherwise everybody would be waiting you get seasonal variation in price, for example the dividends coming in for FTSE stocks into the autumn are huge

[sikhthetech] 15/7/2022 11:54

Credit
"Long term these are good value but investors hit this type of stock when they price in recession."
"huge demand for housing and the markets sell as usual lol"

Why would I buy if I believe they were going lower.
I would consider them once housing market crash/recession is factored into the price..

There was huge demand before the previous house market crash. Eastern European countries had joined the EU in 2004 which led to a huge influx of East Europeans into UK.
Post brexit that huge influx from EU doesn't exist.

The huge demand and lack of supply pre-the previous crash didn't stop housing market from crashing.

Just before the previous housing market crash, the experts were saying(Dec 2006) no crash because of lack of supply but housing market did crash.

[creditcrunchies] 15/7/2022 11:46

I was looking at the yields and forecasts on FTSE stocks they're at insane levels so many 6 to 9% yield meeting expectations on earnings. Most will be exdiv in September the payouts will be enormous

[creditcrunchies] 15/7/2022 11:39

I like the bit about a special cash dividend we'll find out for sure in September.

[unastubbs] 15/7/2022 05:38

tempus (the times) - hold

[roguetraderuk] 14/7/2022 08:52

volumes down rest ok. but f/c margins up (more eps on less vol). glass half empty. these likely to turn when rates outlook turn around end of this year.

[creditcrunchies] 14/7/2022 08:49

Ahead of expectations with huge demand for housing and the markets sell as usual lol. Should be a bumper dividend this autumn

[creditcrunchies] 14/7/2022 08:43

Long term these are good value but investors hit this type of stock when they price in recession. Once distressed housing sellers get flushed out the demand will outstrip supply again. It's cyclical so always worth accumulating when they become cheap. Personally I avoid new builds there's never enough parking space, it's fine if you are single, a couple with no children or just starting a family. If you've got grown up kids they're not for you.

[salver2] 14/7/2022 08:26

A pe of about 4.25 if you strip out the billion plus cash on hand - this would be cheap at double the price- insane bargain ( but clearly no one else sees it that way !)

[eddie1980] 14/7/2022 08:19

£1bn profit, but excluding £412m of 'adjusted costs'? - Is that the cladding issue. (was £100m of adjusting costs in PY.)

[muscletrade] 14/7/2022 07:51

This is the part that causes concern to me. "we are currently experiencing total build cost inflation of between 9% and 10%".

[cwa1] 14/7/2022 07:45

David Thomas, Chief Executive, commented:



"We have delivered an excellent performance this year, reflecting the strong customer demand for our homes and the productivity of our sites. We are delighted that completions have now returned to pre-pandemic levels and I am grateful for the hard work and dedication of our teams and partners over the past two years to achieve this important milestone.

While there are clearly macro-economic uncertainties ahead, the housing market remains robust, our forward order book is strong and we have the resilience and flexibility to react to changes in the operating environment. Our focus remains on addressing the UK's housing shortage with the high-quality, energy-efficient, sustainable homes and developments which we pride ourselves on building."

Highlights

· Strong nationwide demand sustained throughout the year, resulting in net private reservations per active outlet(2) per week of 0.81 (FY21: 0.78)(3).

· Total home completions returned to pre-pandemic levels, with 17,908 homes completed in the year (FY21: 17,243 homes) including 746 from JVs (FY21: 726).



· Adjusted profit before tax is anticipated to be in the range of £1,050m and £1,060m, slightly ahead of current market consensus expectations(4) at £1,048m (FY21: £919.7m). This is stated before adjusted item costs of c. £412m (FY21: costs of £107.5m).


· Awarded 98 Pride in the Job Awards for outstanding site management in the June 2022 NHBC awards, more than any other housebuilder for the 18th consecutive year.

· Continued to demonstrate our leading design and innovation capabilities, with the launch of the zero carbon concept home, the "Zed House", as well as completions from Delamare Park, our first air source heat pump development of 82 homes.

· Introduced an accelerated 5% pay increase from 1 April 2022 and a further temporary salary supplement of £1,000 to all employees below senior management, phased over the coming six months to 31 December 2022.

· Balance sheet strength maintained with year-end net cash(5) of c. £1,125m (30 June 2021: £1,317.4m) after the £250m acquisition of Gladman Developments and land spend of c. £1,050m during the year.

· Well positioned for FY23 with total forward sales (including JVs) at 30 June 2022 of 13,579 homes (30 June 2021: 14,334 homes) at a value of £3,622.3m (30 June 2021: £3,473.5m).

[unastubbs] 14/7/2022 05:36

trading statement today

[creditcrunchies] 06/7/2022 09:11

2 million people missed bill payments and or mortgage payments there's going to be some distressed selling of property giving a small window to buy on the dip soon.