Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2022 14:28

elephant

"Has anyone got any insight as to the recent share price drop?"

Markets look forward.

Affordability is a major problem. Energy price rises and Oct price cap will be announced tomorrow.
Interest rate rises due to inflationary pressures.
Deep recession fears, job losses leading to again affordability.

Last date to use Help to buy fast approaching.

Homeowners in severe mortgage debt rising so mortgage repossessions will rise..



April onwards..
sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.
;-)

[ghhghh] 25/8/2022 14:10

Markets are doing what they always do, overshoot.

HB's have been highly volatile in the past since they borrowed heavily at cyclical tops. Barratts and TW typical examples of this greed, both indebted by £bns and requiring highly dilutive RI's.

This time the HBs are sitting on £bns of net cash.

Bottom line is HB's priced for > 10% fall in house prices and 20% volume reduction and trading currently very good! They are raking in the cash. Thanks to Planning constraints they can't build as many house as they want anyway which will partly support prices.

And if we do have a fall in prices, and therefore volumes, raw material prices will fall to help protect margins. There will be a lag of course.

[elephanthunt] 25/8/2022 12:50

Hi all, long time lurker, first time poster

Has anyone got any insight as to the recent share price drop?

I've held BDEV for around 5 years with my weighted average price around a fiver - the share price seems to have broken through all support levels I've seen while holding, I appreciate the drop has been a gradual decline since the beginning of this year but I'm hoping some more experienced heads can help me understand what we've seen in the last couple of weeks.

Alex

[wskill] 25/8/2022 09:07

Thanks Una it will be a change from the bashers.

[beckers2008] 24/8/2022 23:25

Thought I would share this with you holders, it's got sometimes quite fractus over on Tw. today, Sikhthetech's team are doing their best but failing miserably.
I wonder how many 'vote downs' I get, lol, just lol again!

Take a look at my little teaser...
Bless, Sikhthetech feels it always has to have the last word.
It must be getting paid?

The Sikhthetech trolling club will no doubt be meeting tonight or first thing tomorrow to discuss tactics, lol!

Firstly, the new recruit n6 demonstrated an appalling first time out, ranting and wanting someone to die!
All because of a Share Price!, lol, yeah and lol, again, especially for you n6, lol, just lol.

sT, as usual types away to its hearts content, desperately trying to please his master but fails miserably as it gets mixed up on the facts and gets so emotionally involved capital letters come into play, lol, just lol!

Sikhthetech has many other trolls that are just not up to the job, snippets there and snippets there that soon get shot down by some on here that understands the housing and equity markets and also the BOE base rate vs the bank to bank lending rate, that Sikhthetech, lacks knowledge of, lol!

Interestingly, this leads me to G25 who braggs about its mates 'probably spending £15k per day', lol.
But it must have the most expensive hankies in history to be on attentive hand to give to...
The master troll, Sikhthetech the paid troll that trolls away for all it's worth for nearly 4 years calling it wrong, year after year, bless you, tear after tear, after tear, year after year, after year. Honestly gov, the housing market is going to crash, lol.

I hope you don't run out of hankies dear, lol, just lol!

[beckers2008] 24/8/2022 15:41

Do not engage with 'Sikhthetech' unless you want to argue with it, as it has been doing every week for the past nearly 4 years, forecasting a housing crash, it's been consistently wrong, lol, just lol!

Please I am begging you, please listen to me, why don't you listen to me for more than 3 years, there is going to be a house price crash, honest, there is. It really is going to happen this time, lol, just lol!

[porsche1945] 24/8/2022 14:59

This went from 830 to .33p between 07 and 08, 12 months to wipe out almost its entire value, UK facing maybe worse problems this time. If Citi are right interest rates will need to hit 7pc plus and soon, parabolic taxes, labour shortages juicing inflation thanks to the fxcking brexit fiasco and collapsing sterling, U.K. is fxcked. This is a screaming short.( next support level for this is 373, its now gone through both previous supports ) UK banks are going to be facing huge issues with their lending, could see lloyds back to 22/28p range

[sikhthetech] 24/8/2022 12:16

Also re 18% inflation, what will happen to those homeowners who bought New Builds using the govn Help to Buy equity loan scheme? The scheme which all HBs benefited from, making huge amounts of money from it?


Read my views on Help to Buy scheme. I believe it's toxic.



sikhthetech - 17 Aug 2022 - 21:37:34 - 3104 of 3160 PERSIMMON PLC - THE CHARTS
spawny,

Similar to 2006-7 housing market crash, GFC...when I predicted house prices will crash 40%, peak to trough, not all areas and asking prices crash the largest amount. New Builds usually command a premium and that will significantly reduce or disappear...

HBs are just about running ahead because of house price inflation....

Read about H2B.. I believe it's PPI, mk2...toxic.




It's obvious the govn are desperately trying to prop up the market...All that does it delay the inevitable...

[wskill] 24/8/2022 12:09

Still think a PE of 4 is rather too low for a quality business like BDEV.

[sikhthetech] 24/8/2022 12:00

wskill,

What you miss is that buy to let is no longer favourable as it was. So B2l investors will sell.

All those with holiday homes, 2nd homes.. If it becomes too expensive to run a holiday home due to energy price hikes or interest rates then those investors will sell.

Also international housing markets are crashing. This ripples across the world. UK is not immune.


Have a look at airbnb, where thousands of investors joined in to hopefully make some money. In many places airbnb is more expensive than a hotel!!!

What would happen if all those investors who have holiday homes, airbnb etc see their places are vacant but they still have a mortgage and bills to pay?

[tornado12] 24/8/2022 11:53

I generally agree there can be further downside risk in BDEV and that is also reflected in the share price I invest in small tranche into any stock like this that is in downward turn with good prospects in both yield and share price recovery in 2 yrs. For me they have solid balance sheet and can weather this storm, but need patience and the rewards can follow. The U.K. people have not fallen out of the home owner dream and push to build more affordable will continue directly supported by the government policies on either side GLA

[sikhthetech] 24/8/2022 11:40

wskill,

18% inflation will make affordability significantly worse.

Interest rates rising to curtail inflation. If inflation continues to surge then so will interest rates. Just like they did during GFC, just before the previous housing market crash. The interest rates then were around 5-6% not 17%




sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.

[wskill] 24/8/2022 11:32

Inflation of 18% will help with affordability its not like we will have 17% interest rates as we did in past recessions wage rises will help pay off mortgages added with fixed rate mortgage offers which have been widely available in the past year .

[sikhthetech] 24/8/2022 11:25

There you go, HBs falling as predicted.
More and more news of recession and housing market crash in the media.



sikhthetech - 13 Apr 2022 - 14:25:40 - 2388 of 2451 Barratt Developments - Building Profits - BDEV
Affordability is a major problem and is going to get worse.

House prices would only rise if people could afford to continue buying...

When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.


What do you think will happen once courts catch up with all those evictions which were halted during the pandemic??? What will happen to the number of homeowners in severe mortgage debt..

[tornado12] 24/8/2022 10:36

Bdev remains a medium term invest as they have huge cash pile plus a very healthy land bank portfolio. I’m here for sustained dividend which they also have a good track record. The main challenge is to find the bottom in this market. That’s going to take months , but waiting for the business update in September to decide when I add further.

[beckers2008] 24/8/2022 10:02

P45,

The market started predicting some bad news for HB's back in Mid 21.
YE 2021 the noise grew.
Russia invasion, the noise was deafening.
You missed the boat old chap.

[porsche1945] 22/8/2022 15:14

Rising energy prices could push UK inflation above 18% next year, the highest rate in nearly 50 years, according to experts.
Inflation - the rate at which prices rise - hit 10.1% in July, which is five times the Bank of England's target.
Investment bank Citi, which made the forecast, said inflation was "entering the stratosphere".
The Bank of England has previously projected that inflation will rise to more than 13% in the coming months.
Citi's forecast - which would be the UK's highest rate of inflation since 1976 - comes ahead of Friday's energy price cap announcement on the maximum amount suppliers can charge households for gas and electricity from October.
Citi's chief UK economist, Benjamin Nabarro, said affordability concerns were "growing more deafening by the day". This just on business wire, if Citi are right you can kiss goodbye to the property market, will be talking a 40 per cent reset with the interest rates needed to contain it. ALL builders are now a screaming short.

[tornado12] 22/8/2022 12:09

Added more @ 450p. Expecting the business update to be positive note with good divi payment in November. Risks for further weakness, but satisfied as a long term investment into my balanced portfolio GLA

[cwa1] 16/8/2022 07:43

News from this am:-

Aug 16 - UK's Competition and Markets Authority:


* COMPETITION AND MKTS - LEASEHOLD INVESTIGATION UPDATE


* UK'S COMPETITION AND MARKETS AUTHORITY SAYS IS POSITIVELY
ENGAGING WITH FIRMS WHO PURCHASED FREEHOLDS FROM TAYLOR WIMPEY
IN ORDER TO SECURE FORMAL COMMITMENTS FROM THOSE FREEHOLDERS TO
REMOVE DOUBLING CLAUSES FROM THEIR LEASES


* UK'S CMA SAYS REGARDING ITS INVESTIGATION INTO ALLEGED
MIS-SELLING BY BARRATT HOMES, CMA HAS NOW CLOSED ITS CASE


* UK'S COMPETITION AND MARKETS AUTHORITY SAYS BARRATT'S
SALES
PRACTICES HAVE CHANGED, AND THEY NO LONGER SELL LEASEHOLD
HOUSES.


* COMPETITION AND MARKETS AUTHORITY (CMA) IS POSITIVELY
ENGAGING
WITH FIRMS WHO PURCHASED FREEHOLDS FROM TAYLOR WIMPEY IN ORDER
TO SECURE FORMAL COMMITMENTS FROM THOSE FREEHOLDERS TO REMOVE
DOUBLING CLAUSES FROM THEIR LEASES


* CMA- CONCLUDED IT WAS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CLEAR
LEGAL CASE
FOR CMA TO SECURE COLLECTIVE REDRESS FOR BARRATT LEASEHOLDERS
UNDER CONSUMER LAW POWERS

[unastubbs] 14/8/2022 06:55

very positive BUY rec from Questor today (Sunday Telegraph)

[buywell3] 09/8/2022 22:45

The fall in Housebuilders is not going away due to :


Household energy costs are now thought to be 4K by Jan 2023 and reach 4.4K months later

A 100% increase in prospect as mortgage rise too and the cost of food and everything else rises as inflation goes from 9% to over 14% --- a 50% increase


buywell hopes to read that Liz Truss announces a widespread policy of solar energy installations to help with the electricity costs

This could be done in a number of ways including 50% subsidized home installations with batteries included

Just giving cash handouts is a waste of time and shows lack of vision

A long term solution using tested and available technology NOW is what is needed and was needed well over 18 months ago

Our so called government, have been very shortsighted

All need to book appointments with their optometrists today





The fall in Housebuilders is not going away due to :


Household energy costs are now thought to be 4K by Jan 2023 and reach 4.4K months later

A 100% increase in prospect as mortgage rise too and the cost of food and everything else rises as inflation goes from 9% to over 14% --- a 50% increase


buywell hopes to read that Liz Truss announces a widespread policy of solar energy installations to help with the electricity costs

This could be done in a number of ways including 50% subsidized home installations with batteries included

Just giving cash handouts is a waste of time and shows lack of vision

A long term solution using tested and available technology NOW is what is needed and was needed well over 18 months ago

Our so called government, have been very shortsighted

All need to book appointments with their optometrists today