Baron Oil Share Discussion Threads

[hugomaracuya] 17/5/2018 18:50

Hi Alasdair, and other friends. Yeah, its been a while, haha. I don't look in too often, just now and again to see how we are doing, but as we approach the drills, I will hopefully stay more in touch.

Life in Sth America is good. (Should have done it years ago), I hope everything with you guys is also well, and wish you all success after such a long time waiting.

[nlmbidc] 17/5/2018 10:52

There will be no placing until we find oil or gas. All planned drilling including SE Asia - if we finally get is covered by existing funds.

[chinadog3] 17/5/2018 09:52

Hugo,

Well reasoned post. Thank you for popping in.

I think you agree that: ` the share price right now is not . . . . at a level anywhere near making placing viable let alone attractive.`

[pembury] 17/5/2018 09:16

They still have a good chunk of cash reserves after these 3 wells Hugo!
Could fund more drills.
They will still have a large portion of that 5.2m cash remaining, the big next call is XX1.

[nlmbidc] 17/5/2018 09:01

Especially Colter which may be drilled horizontally from Wych Farm.

[kinkell] 17/5/2018 08:41

In the success case there is also the possibility of a farm-out or sale.

[alasdair100new] 17/5/2018 08:29

Nice to hear from you Hugo- been a while! Fingers crossed for a placing once we hit oil then at a price way way above the current sp

[hugomaracuya] 17/5/2018 00:08

Optimistic is one thing, but over-exuberance is another. Deliberate and prolonged over-exuberance, done to coerce others to invest more for their own gains, is called ramping. Whichever this is, is left to the judgement of others. I will make no comment.

But as far as a possible placing, the suggestion by Tommo and Pete is actually quite realistic. If the wells are a failure, or maybe a snag in the drilling, or if the result is inconclusive and requires another drill or sidetrack, maybe we hit water, we will need more cash, as the amount that's left won't buy us a lot, so its quite a possibility.

If however, the wells are successful, what then? More money will have to be spent to evaluate the find, completion, testing, which may be long term, tanks, contaminated water disposal, maybe more seismics and drilling appraisal wells to delineate the field, and much money needed before we see true returns. Money which we will not have.

Luckily this is not all bad, for on a successful drill, we should see the share price rise and so any placing should be held off until all the results are in. Then we can capitalise on the share price rise, and do the placing at a much higher price. If they do it too early, that could be bad for us shareholders.

The third scenario is XX1. The primary target will be for gas, perhaps oil too if we are lucky. If we do find gas, the infrastructure required for gas is actually much more expensive than for oil, and our requirements will be a lot higher.

So whichever way we look at it, its quite likely that we will have to raise money, whichever of the above results comes about.

All we should hope is that the wells are successful, so that we can raise money at a much higher price.


(and for the newbies in this share, I'd just like to say I've been in this one since almost the beginning, and have been investing in oil since 1973, so I'm quite used to the ups and downs and risks of oil, and pretty conversant with the industry by now).

[redhill] 16/5/2018 21:23

tommo41

Your comments don't make sense.

If you are sitting on a loss then why attack rampers who are trying to get the price up which will enable you to get out ?

I've been holding these a fair while and i'm under water so have no reason at all to contradict posters who are optimistic.

[chinadog3] 16/5/2018 18:04

I'm nursing hefty losses here too but that is not the reason that I tend towards the Pazzuzu view rather than yours Tommo. I followed the recent rise,placing,and fall in Nuogs share price and I find the pump & dump rhethoric argument quite persuasive in that case but here there seems no basis for that scenario to be in play. Money is in hand and news flow is gathering pace plus the share price right now is not in my view at a level anywhere near making placing viable let alone attractive. As for Mrs P's apparent reduction overall it could be one of many reasons eg transferred to a different entity or relative or to raise a little cash: we don't know

[petecb1] 16/5/2018 17:10

In contrast all you do is slag off anyone who says anything even slightly bearish about the stock.

[pazzuzu] 16/5/2018 16:44

And ps. As it seems he is critiquing peoples use of the English language, says it all really. Do some research and come up with figures to refute the valuation or support the idea of a fundraise, rather than trite remarks.

[pazzuzu] 16/5/2018 16:41

That makes sense oilden! Can't really be bothered to point out the many flaws with the 'share issue coming' in the complete void of any reasonable explanation as to why, other than a crystal ball of course. or the notion that he is somehow more legitimised to comment becasue he has had shares for ages. Surely buying at a bad time and being heavy underwater indicates the complete opposite to what he thinks it should. I really wouldn't mind, if he had anything constructive to offer to back up the possibity of a fund raise and I'd unfilter him. But he sneers at anyone who is bull on this stock. He clearly hasn't sat down with a calculator and worked it out for himself, I posted a valuation forcast a while back, the numbers are solid and somewhat Conservative. Can't argue with that! But alas some just want too pick things out the air without objectively looking at it, didn't he even post some nonsense about the TR1 this morning. It would seem there is a very good reason she sold some but it would seem even the most cursory Google search is too much effort. Or perhaps the truth wouldn't fit his narrative

[oildon11] 16/5/2018 16:24

Poor tommo been holding for years then sold out at a huge loss. Use correct english?? Pipe down internet chat thread officer. Im sad for you that you jumped ship at the wrong time and took such a hit.Maybe you should let it go now and stop posting.

[2admiral] 16/5/2018 14:06

If the selling is done then this is going up!!!!!.
With the volume of recent weeks we would be over 1p imo.
2ad

[pazzuzu] 16/5/2018 13:33

God is he still going on about a fundraise? Had ti filter him. I don't mind critics but have more of a basis for your opinion other than I have bought a lot if aim shares and I feel it in my waters! Fact is they are fully funded for three wells, the share price look very likely to multiply imho, why take the wind out the sails now when they can wait fir a few months and have a more valuable business. Doing it now would be self flagulation and idiotic of management.

[tommo41] 16/5/2018 13:24

Don't be so certain, pembury. I'm a bit baffled as to why she should choose to start off-loading now when she sat on her holding throughout all the barren period.

[shokty] 16/5/2018 12:47

you are right that IF she is reducing fully then the rise will be somewhat suppressed but that’s a big IF and based on what we seen still expecting a nice move here as we enter an exciting period for the company

[pembury] 16/5/2018 12:39

no placing then tommo!

[shokty] 16/5/2018 12:36

APOlogies being a bit flippant - you are right let’s see how it pans out ...hoping just a small reduction

[petecb1] 16/5/2018 12:35

You don't think selling 15% of the company would suppress the share price?

[shokty] 16/5/2018 12:31

Yeah definitely been suppressed with a close to 50% rise over last week odd :)

[petecb1] 16/5/2018 12:25

Parvati selling up. At least now we know who the big seller has been. If she's selling everything could be suppressed for a while yet