Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[smurfy2001] 20/3/2023 13:36

FED need to guarantee deposits of all regional banks.

[johnwise] 20/3/2023 13:23

Almost 200 US Banks Are at Risk of Silicon Valley Bank-Like Collapse: Study


Nearly 200 more banks could be vulnerable to the same type of risk that collapsed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) earlier this month, according to a recently published study.

There are 186 banks across the United States that could collapse if half of their respective uninsured depositors withdraw their funds, researchers with the Social Science Research Network found. Deposits at member banks of up to $250,000 are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., although the agency agreed to insure depositors’ funds far above that after SVB’s collapse this month.

“Combined, losses and uninsured leverage provide incentives for an SVB uninsured depositor run,” an abstract of the paper reads. “We compute similar incentives for the sample of all U.S. banks. Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk.

“If uninsured deposit withdrawals cause even small fire sales, substantially more banks are at risk. Overall, these calculations suggest that recent declines in bank asset values very significantly increased the fragility of the US banking system to uninsured depositor runs.”

Insured depositors of those banks could also see problems trying to withdraw their cash if those financial institutions face a bank run, the paper’s authors (pdf) say. The researchers noted that those banks hold a large amount of their assets in government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which are highly reactive to interest rates that have been raised significantly over the past year by the Federal Reserve.

“Our calculations suggest these banks are certainly at a potential risk of a run, absent other government intervention or recapitalization,” the economists wrote.

Their study evaluated banks’ asset books around the United States, finding an estimated $2 trillion discrepancy in their overall market value. It also noted that uninsured depositors are a major source of funding for commercial banks and account for about $9 trillion of their liabilities, meaning that bank runs on these institutions could present a “significant risk.”

“As interest rates rise, the value of a bank’s assets can decline, potentially leading to bank failure through two broad, but related channels,” they wrote. “First, if a bank’s liabilities exceed the value of its assets, it may become insolvent. This is particularly likely for banks which need to increase deposit rates as interest rates rise. Second, uninsured depositors may become concerned about potential losses and withdraw their funds, causing a run on the bank.”

[johnwise] 20/3/2023 13:11

Credit crisis is coming, says Jefferies

The current liquidity crisis within the banks will pass, says Jefferies, but a credit crisis may soon be upon us.

Contagion fears following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) should fade thanks to measures from the US Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

The measures should provide easy access to liquidity, ensuring the current deposit flight does not lead to further failures.

However, credit tightening and demand, the broker says, points to a credit crisis, not similar to ones previously witnessed on Wall Street, but a “Main Street” crisis, where small businesses find access to credit restrained.

Regional banks, which have been lending to small businesses since the pandemic, will be far more limited in their ability and willingness to do so.

The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows credit standards have been tightening since the third quarter of 2021 and was at their lowest level since the final quarter of 2020 at the start of this year, highlighting there was a credit problem before the failures of SVB, Silvergate and SBNY.

Jefferies said that when the dust settles, it is likely smaller regional banks will have a smaller deposit base, and it is unlikely they will be able to attract most of their old customers back quickly.

[smurfy2001] 20/3/2023 13:02

FTSE100 bounced off the lower trend line. RSI oversold.

[johnwise] 20/3/2023 13:00

Why do the Torys enjoy making life unbearable for the average Brit?

After they have bankrupted Britain, you can help to pay for their stupidity

The Torys plan for you to " work until you drop"

State pension age rise expected to be ‘brought forward’ by Hunt following Budget
Speculation has run rife that the age threshold may be raised to 68 earlier than currently planned.

[smurfy2001] 20/3/2023 12:54

So Credit Suisse investment bank to be wound down. Good for Barclays and other investment banks.

[johnwise] 20/3/2023 12:37

Oil falls, gold price jumps as banking stress deepens

Oil futures have fallen to their lowest level in 15 months and gold prices jumped 1% as concerns of risks in the global banking sector rise.

[smurfy2001] 20/3/2023 11:58

We didn’t expect the leopards to eat OUR faces, say AT1 bondholders

[smurfy2001] 20/3/2023 11:51

I suspect BARC buyback will still be 10m (per Friday buyback).

[clond] 20/3/2023 11:04

100 down and 100 high yet barcs still not at 139.

Think under 130 will come again this week.

[diku] 20/3/2023 10:22

Anybody think FTSE Oct lows get retested?...

[deme1] 20/3/2023 10:18

Ftse has bounced off its support, however if the 7300 breaches then we could be looking at sub 7000 next.

I hope the stocks do turn as I am still heavily invested with only half cash available, I can just see a mini 2008 happening in the financial and housing markets

[xongkudu] 20/3/2023 10:13

good luck deme but I can’t see it.

[deme1] 20/3/2023 10:12

My buy order has been set at 105p, I think this has further to run and am not looking at rushing in.

Dow futures are down, I can see the ftse heading that way later on. Half in cash with my other stocks getting a hammering also

bring on 2008 again I say!

[xongkudu] 20/3/2023 10:11

Yes. It’s now going the wrong way for some ultra pessimists who may have missed low 130 levels. Who knows though…but it doesn’t pay to be to greedy with bottom-feeding buy orders. Rather buy in smaller tranches in real time.

[eisler] 20/3/2023 09:47

Hopefully we will see 100ish - very nice entry point

[coxsmn] 20/3/2023 09:43

0847 GMT - U.K. banking stocks are caught up in the market confusion caused by Credit Suisse's AT1 bond write down, says Shore Capital in a note. "Share prices are likely to remain sentiment-driven and so volatile in the near-term, and we would therefore encourage long-term investors to take advantage of the excellent buying opportunity in the U.K. banking sector that this has created," analyst Gary Greenwood says, noting that U.K. banks are in a strong position to withstand the economic downturn with strong balance sheets. Shares in the sector extend last week's losses, with NatWest and Barclays both down around 6%, Standard Chartered falling 5.3%, HSBC down 3.5% and Lloyds 2.7%. ([e-mail])

[manics] 20/3/2023 09:30

PRBSHARES: forget charts for now, imo. Black swans don't care...

[clond] 20/3/2023 09:30

I can imagine the next rns

Barclays are holding back the buyback scheme for a rear
until liquidity and confidence has returned to the market!

[costax1654x] 20/3/2023 09:28

I will buy some at 100

[kogg] 20/3/2023 09:24

"Buy backs well timed!"

It seems that way, thing is will barc take advatage on the buy back at this level or maybe they expect further down pressure and wait it out. One thing is sure we're getting more back than we thought we would over a week ago.

[reidy66] 20/3/2023 09:18

Small top up at 131.04

[coxsmn] 20/3/2023 09:15

Buy backs well timed!