Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[craig666] 04/4/2009 09:40

I'll do a quick simple calculation.

If you take the high of £8.00 and divide by the low of 0.45 you get a price target of £1.77, this is how I calculate the stage-one break out at key resistances once broken. Now you add the low of 45p to give a new target of £2.22 which IMHO will be hit next week.

You then do some other caculations once the £2.25 has been hit, but this time you calculate down to give you a support of £1.70, this is the back test and once complete a new high can be calculated from the pivot. I will be back in Barcs from £1.40 on any snap back given the chance. 90% of traders scared to average up and do not know how to trade a bull market. The sell off in Barcs was manipulated beyond reason.

[craig666] 04/4/2009 09:32

>diku

I can see a Dow high around 18k in 5yrs, I'm expecting this bull to end the year around 11k, therefore I think I am being realistic with a Barc target around £3.50

Ken if you are doing a year end target comp put me down for £3.50 buddy

[wenlynn] 04/4/2009 09:28

CRAIG,
Well done as you've made over £1 million from BARC.
You're the man.

[diku] 04/4/2009 09:27

craig...900p for Lloy even in 5 years is just a bit too ambitious...have considered becoming a market maker?...we might just get there in 5 years!!!...

[fiendish] 04/4/2009 09:22

Monty, why do you continue to attempt to antagonise PIs on this thread. I can remember a couple of months ago when you were posting rockets and other amusing images. Surely, it cannot be down to the fact that you may have been short from around the pound mark? I thought you were a far better trader than that!

Cant we all just support each others trades in a reasoned and civilised fashion whatever the direction may be? This is what I try and teach my young children, just be respectful to your fellow man/woman, its much more rewarding in the end.

[craig666] 04/4/2009 09:22

Last high Ken was around £1.98, it won't take much to get this through £2.00 This is a must for all ISA, and you still have a couple of days left to get one. All in all, I expect a share value around £3.00 later this year. RBS is a strong outsider for a great recovery next week upto 40p and LLOY upto £1.05

The banks will be the first to recover and lead us out of a recession, there's that much money now being pumped into the system they can't fail. Its going to be a great year, but if you look 3yrs ahead just 10k invested across the 3-main banks would imvho make you 40-50k

I know Barclays has the edge due to excellent managerment structure, but LLOY will be a beast of a bank and within 3-5yrs would not rule out £9.00 per share.

It was the Dow recovery I was looking at Ken, not the ADRs. The ftse-100 and Asia will rally as the index was down around 80 points on our close, more important is the fact the Dow closed above 8k

[diku] 04/4/2009 09:22

If you disagree...just say you disagree...no need to use foul language...your true character on display...

[diku] 04/4/2009 09:13

I think the FSA only saw the assets...Barc wanted them to see!...thus the all clear...or else management credibility on the line with the entire board up for re election at the next AGM...

[kenbachelor] 04/4/2009 09:12

Thanks for that Craig.

I'm sure somebody will tell you that the price in the US doesn't effect the price here, but it certainly is a indicator of the sentiment after our close.

This week we have been rigidly following the middle Gann line and although we actually lost a couple of p this week, the recent trend remains intact. I'm going for 195p by Thursday, but not 225p.

[isis] 04/4/2009 09:12

Ask the FSA they cleared them. :-))

[montyhedge] 04/4/2009 09:10

Where are the toxic assets, dumped in a draw, LOL

[gordo58] 04/4/2009 09:09

He points out that in June 1933 the US market rallied 105 per cent in six months long before all the bad news had played out. Similarly, in 1974, the UK market jumped by 148 per cent in five months. "How would you have felt then with your large and beloved cash reserves?" he asks.



worth repeating

[montyhedge] 04/4/2009 09:07

Will Barclays cash in now with a rights issue, seeing the share price as risen from 57p to 170p in 20 days?

[isis] 04/4/2009 09:05

At least 6 top Fund Managers have said we are entering a new Bull market, including Anthony Bolton:-

Gurus say bottom near

By Pauline Skypala

Published: March 15 2009 09:36 | Last updated: March 15 2009 09:36

Investment gurus are lining up to call the bottom of the market. Anthony Bolton of Fidelity International did so last week, telling delegates at a pensions conference markets were at or near lows.

He said much the same in October last year, so in a video interview, FTfm asked why he thought he was right this time. Opening with the remark that it is "very difficult" to get market timing right, Mr Bolton said he looked at three factors: the history of bull and bear market cycles; sentiment – how investors are behaving and thinking; and valuations. Those reached an extreme back in November that he thought might have marked the final low, and again in the first week of March.
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"That is why I think we are pretty near the end of this pretty awful bear market," he said.

He is not talking about a bear market rally, he added, but the start of a new bull market. Mr Bolton, and Fidelity International, generally advise against trying to time markets. Investors should hold on through thick and thin to avoid missing out on the best days that often come when the market turns, they have frequently said.

Mr Bolton now appears to be timing markets. He admits to being "a bit foolhardy going against my own advice" but remains consistent in putting out the message that it is hard to time markets and most private investors should employ a buy and hold strategy.

He believes all risk assets are now attractive, not just equities. The only one that looks less attractive is government bonds, where there could be a bubble building, he says.

He is not alone in his assessment. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, told clients in a newsletter last week to adopt a reinvestment plan and stick to it.

GMO made one very large reinvestment move in October and has a schedule for further moves contingent on future market declines, he says, in the belief that a few large steps are better than many small ones.

Mr Grantham is not brimming with confidence but says it is vital to have a battle plan, otherwise paralysis sets in. He points out that in June 1933 the US market rallied 105 per cent in six months long before all the bad news had played out. Similarly, in 1974, the UK market jumped by 148 per cent in five months. "How would you have felt then with your large and beloved cash reserves?" he asks.

In common with Mr Bolton, he advises the market is a powerful discounting mechanism. Investors who wait for light at the end of the tunnel will miss the upturn.

The market turns "when all looks black, but just a subtle shade less black than the day before".

[craig666] 04/4/2009 08:55

Expect a good open around £1.80 on Monday after the U.S close. I have no position but one sees a target of £1.95 being hit Monday afternoon and £2.25 by Thursday close. IMVHO

[mknight] 04/4/2009 08:35

Hillbrown , there is alot of money on the side watching the market tick ever higher ..... There are shorters which will not like seeing their profits being reduced on a daily basis .I believe the market rally may even get hotter next week , of course we will pull back but at what price ?

[isis] 04/4/2009 08:23

LEX isn't very good though.

[hillbrown] 04/4/2009 08:19

Anyone who believes that the mark to market change is neccessarily good should invest in todays FT. Lex on the back page tell why it not. Also warns of the continuing fragility of the UK housing market and the strong likelehood that we are now in the false dawn of a bear market rally. He is uncannily close to my own views previously expressed on this board. Having said that I hold Barc as my one and only equity as it will outperform the market and it would be careless not to be holding a share which will already be out of the traps when the final market capitulation takes place towards the end of this year.

[isis] 04/4/2009 06:51

US suspends mark-to-market rules on bank assets

By Stephen Foley in New York

Friday, 3 April 2009



Banks in the US are being given more discretion on how to value the toxic mortgage assets that have poisoned their balance sheets in a reversal of parts of the controversial "mark-to-market" accounting rules that many blame for exacerbating the credit crisis.
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The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) voted yesterday to let banks ignore market prices for assets if they judge the market is illiquid and that the most recent sales are being done at firesale prices by distressed sellers. There will also be changes to allow banks to book smaller losses on impaired assets that are available for sale, which could take extra pressure off many of the biggest banks in the US.

Traders put yesterday's dramatic rally by global equity markets down to the relaxation. In New York, the Dow Jones broke through the 8,000 barrier for the first time since 9 February, before closing up 2.8 per cent at 7,978.1. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 4.3 per cent to 4,125 – the first time it has closed above 4,000 for more than a month.

The FASB was acting under pressure from Congress, which said it may legislate if the board did not ease the rules.

The Centre for Investors and Entrepreneurs, which has been campaigning for a suspension of mark-to- market accounting, welcomed the move. Its director, John Berlau, said: "By itself, this change will not make the price of mortgage assets higher or lower. Rather, it will allow price discovery to occur. Mark-to-market distorted the market by forcing banks to take losses on mortgage assets even if the underlying loans were still performing."

The issue is at the root of the problems facing banks over trillions of dollars of mortgage-related assets, many of which have not traded for 18 months. As mortgage arrears have ballooned, investors have fled the market and those who want to buy them are not keen to pay top dollar. The few early trades, at low valuations, forced all the banks holding similar assets to write off more than half a trillion dollars, sending several large players to the point of insolvency.

Since then, banks have refused to accept dramatically lower prices, believing their losses will be less if they hold the assets until all the underlying mortgages have been paid back. The stalemate, though, has led to frozen credit markets.

[rwlly] 04/4/2009 02:32

Thanks for info.

[gcom2] 03/4/2009 23:50

gordonbrown you still think adr's influence london opening prices
oh well....your name is GB after all.......