Bango Share Discussion Threads

[rmillaree] 02/10/2024 09:50

I think you need to do your own research and calculations

i have done my own research (otherwise i wouldnt be hanging around) - i just have pet hate for companies promisingb the earth and not delivering or unsubstantiated claims of huge profits when the company is going to the trouble of saying nothing or suggesting the opposite. Its not exactly hard for the board to be open honest and on the ball ref numbers - rather than all the fanciful talk of greatnes without putting pen to paper and when they do put pen for paper for numbers to turn out plain wrong.
Hopefully for holders "things wil be different" over the next 12 to 18 months - would i bet on it happenming no as the board install zero faith despite the underlying prospects looking brilliant.

[adtraderuae] 02/10/2024 09:35

Any word from Hastings on his H1 results call with Bango management ?

[amt] 02/10/2024 09:03

My model shows share price with pe of 12 as follows in 2030 based on 10% growth in Transactional revenue and DVM annualisee growth ranging between 20% to 40%
Overheads remaining unchanged and 95% margin for DVM
20% growth 7.50
30% 11.50
40% 18.00

[lentjes] 01/10/2024 19:13

Larbey in his Proactive interview stated that H1 DCB revenue increased 10% in local currency mainly in Japan although due to the strong US$ in H1 this resulted in only 5% actual revenue contribution, considering the strengthening of JPY against the US$ since the start of H2 you would think this would provide a positive upside in H2 revenue although Matt Garner appeared to put the mockers on this in the presentation referring to the strengthening GBP v JPY which is rather confusing as we report in US$ not GBP

Thinking further with many of the Bango overheads in the UK the strengthening of the GBP v US$ would impact profitability

[amt] 01/10/2024 09:03

Difficult to buy shares currently, easy to sell so perhaps the tide is turning but we have been here before so not holding my breath.

[amt] 01/10/2024 08:47

rmillaree I think you need to do your own research and calculations. Forecasts are obviously not factual whoever does them. Investing is not about having everything handed to you on a plate.
I don't think you understand what I have stated about margins. The transactional business had Gross margins of over 90% now after Docommo it has dropped to upper 70's.
So margins there are clearly lower. Some recovery is likely when everything is transferred to the Bango platform but from what they mentioned as being the result in a change in Geographic mix I take to mean that Japan will continue to operate at a lower GP than some other regions.
Nothing to do with overhead and scale.
The reason why they say margins will recover in the future is because the DVM business operating at 95% margin will be a greater proportion of the mix.

The reason I was a little annoyed with your post that Bango produced hot air was because it was disrespectful to a team of obviously hard working and very successful people building a great company. At the same time you couldn't be bothered to do any basic work to determine how things might look in the future. Did you attend the call yesterday when you could have asked about forecasts, I suspect not.
There are some companies I am invested in which I don't research and rely on other posters but I am clear in admiting that.
I think Bango has to be one of the most communicative and honest companies out there. You can send them questions if you want rather than expecting answers on a BB

[amt] 01/10/2024 08:34

Paul is a very good communicator

[rmillaree] 01/10/2024 08:13

They could have a stab at a forecast for 2025 but if they did it would have to be extremely prudent and timeing of DVM revenue looks to be difficult.

Its becoming a worthless discussion going round in circles here - its not my fault that the company wont put anything out for next year. I fully agree the possibilities here ref revenue growth and profit geenration presuming things go on track - personally though i simply follow sensible information provided from the company/official sources rather than speculation when tehy choose not to provide said information - you can pilory me for that thats fair enough but i am the one living in the real world of factual data.

Ref margins - in the real world its often the case that overheads need to increase proportionatly so the operational gearing is often much less than one could project when one is in the exciting growth stage looking at gross margins alone - on a positive note h2 is projected to be much better than h1 here - so real progress should be delivered with next 3 sets of six monthlies if your golden land of $16 mill net profit next year is something more than jackanory stuff.

[amt] 01/10/2024 06:03

They could have a stab at a forecast for 2025 but if they did it would have to be extremely prudent and timeing of DVM revenue looks to be difficult.
So if they did publish something it would probably be disappointing. Best to wait until the year end report next year so they can if all goes to plan publish something impressive.
They have given us the 100m turnover number for DVM medium term as an indication so you can do your own calculations.

[amt] 01/10/2024 05:06

By the way Paul mentioned that there was no reason why the DVM shouldn't reach 100m usd annualised in the medium term.
Let's call that 5 years.
If that happens then profit before tax would be approaching 100m if overheads dont rise. That's because the transactions business growing at 5% per annum should cover costs.
So if that happened it should easily translate into Bango becoming a billion pound company and therefore a share price of £12 plus

[amt] 30/9/2024 21:25

rmillaree did you listen to the presentation and Q&A. They answered all the questions I put to them satisfactorily.
On reflection I think margins on Domocco are not as high as I would have expected but that won't become relevant a year from now due to substantial growth in DVM.
I put numbers through my spreadsheet assuming growth of 5% in Transaction business and initial growth of 50% in DVM dropping back to 20% in 3 years time. I get profits before tax of 72m by 2030. On a pe of 12 the share price could be 10 quid by then.
Although for this year I can see how they get to Turnover and Ebitda expectations, I suspect they will be pushed to make a net profit, so may fall short. Anyway might be completely wrong
After listening to todays talk and the revival of audiences and utilising the wealth of data they have available, I have never been more excited about the future. We will just have to be patient with the share price for another 9 months or so.

[rmillaree] 30/9/2024 16:47

I think the results don't change anything - amt has summed up the bull case very succinctly and thats all about the future (and having faith as things stand ) - the interims taken at face value look pretty grim and the intangible asset spending has continued at pace. It's all in the rear view mirror though and isnt really unexpected or relevant to the bullish viewpoint. I would like to have seen broker forecasts introduced for next year so if that hasnt happened thats not helpful. On the plus side they have repeated the claims that they expect to be back to net cash position next year - so at least the little they are saying is being said in the right manner.
In some respects nothing going wrong here is the main thing that has been avoided and needed to be avoided - so on the basis they should be posting profits in h2 - the fact they have had no banana skins so far ytd is good bearing in mind only 3 months left of 2024. They managed to blot the copybook last year right at the end though - one would hope that they dont do that again.

Have there been any broker updates yet on the back of these numnbers? would have been nice if they had reitterated prior expectations - as little has changed though does anything ned to be said?

[vespasianthesubguest] 30/9/2024 15:55

rmillaree, what say you? 😆

[6gr] 30/9/2024 10:11

Agreed, they've dropped over 100 staff through the integration (it was good to hear that expressed specifically ) and costs are still declining further. The existing DCB will keep growing at 5-10% with little effort/cost and DVM is growing fast just through existing customers NRR at 160%.

The maths is clear, the trajectory is clear and they are very clearly un-fussed about their ability to repay the NHN loan. They will be generating significant cash in years to come without doing a single new deal.

[amt] 30/9/2024 09:59

Excellent presentation and great they answered all of my questions including the one about Google and withdrawl of carrier billing in the US.
I like the comment at the end by Paul about the maths to project going forward. Leads me to think anyone can do there own calculations for 2025 and get a good idea of the range of outcomes

[weblinkman] 30/9/2024 08:25

For those who are thinking forward (vs rear view mirror only mode) Anil is on Stage with IBM in South Korea on Wednesday:

[amt] 30/9/2024 08:18

Yes.but the market doesn't look forward.
There are a few opportunities amongst all the rubbish on AIM.
We will have to wait until middle of next year before we get a proper rerating I suspect.

[jasperlachat] 30/9/2024 08:06

On any kind of forward thinking the share price should at the very least be twice where it is now.

[amt] 30/9/2024 07:18

Yes it was flagged but I was reiterating why the great performance of the company has been clouded by a lot of costs related to Docommo. Next year will be a clean year so I reckon on 17m to 25m usd profit before tax in 2025 and a big rerating.

[jasperlachat] 30/9/2024 06:42

I thought the Docomo migration timeline was already flagged along these lines. Inertia within the business speaks for itself - all good with me.

[amt] 30/9/2024 06:30

Looks exciting to me. Interesting that they are still dealing with Docomo migration which is now clearly been a bigger exercise than originally believed. However that will be completed by y/e so it will leave 2025 clear for a big turnaround in financials.
H2 will generate a lot of cash so I don't have any concerns about cash and they have the overdraft facility.
Interesting that audiences and data monetization are making a come back and found a market within subscriptions.
That's also exciting.
It's now a question of how big this business can become. They have carrier billing to generate the cash and subscriptions audience's and data monetization to grow quickly at 95% margin
Docommo acquisition has clouded the success of the underlying business but in the long run looks to have been a good acquisition even though its resulted in a big outlay todate.

[ic777] 29/9/2024 12:35

Think reason why hardly any job posting is because after acquiring NTT Docomo biz, there are alot of redundancies...at the same time, think alot of investors have given feedback that they need to show FCF positive and the viability and profitability of their biz model...so guess they need to balance between trying to improve investor sentiment and at the same time still investing for the hyper growth in DVM...

[lentjes] 29/9/2024 11:33

Hoping they give a Q3 update in the morning

[amt] 29/9/2024 11:11

It would be interesting to know why there is only one permanent job advertised. Is that a good sign that the business is now maturing in terms of investment and growth will not require more than current outlay. Or are they cutting costs to hit targets and prove to the market they can be profitable.