Bacanora Lithium Share Discussion Threads

[rwauu] 09/1/2017 15:59

Look how much moneys people made!!! Bringin insane amounts of bacon!!! Now just see if it will continue higher, much more higher, about the time!!!

[steeplejack] 09/1/2017 14:36

Yes it's a good article in the FT.Takes a long term view and wonders whether lithium won't ultimately prove vulnerable to oversupply as there's a rush to satisfy strongly rising demand.Thereagain,it predicates a substantial global supply deficit in the year 2025 of over 100,000 tonnes,so I don't think the cycle is going into a downturn anytime soon.The article is loath to suggest that lithium could prove to be a bubble like rare earths that fell sharply in price back in 2012.The demand is uncompromising for lithium.The article also draws attention to China's appetite for lithium,now even drilling for the resource (expensively)in Australia.

[hutch_pod] 06/1/2017 12:59

FT article is interesting. Points to meteoric demand forecasts - 175k tonnes to 775k tonnes by 2025 but then highlights "no shortage of lithium in the earth's crust" as well as it being "very difficult to mine and process".

So you might think that BCN is relatively advanced in its development and therefore might take full advantage of the rising demand before supply catches up.

[red nutter] 06/1/2017 10:44

Thanks Steeple!

[steeplejack] 06/1/2017 10:29

It's EMH




It has had a hell of run.

[simonsaid1] 06/1/2017 10:22

Yes that's all very intriguing but doesn't say who this low cost miner actually is!

[steeplejack] 06/1/2017 10:22

Lest anyone be confused by the above comment from LSE,it's a comment commending the relative merits of EMH ,European Metals Holdings,attempting to lay out a case that EMH is better value than BCN.Shame the poster,who took someone else's comment from LSE,failed to recognise that there's no mention of the company in the post itself.

[red nutter] 06/1/2017 10:17

What share you referring to?

[myst1] 06/1/2017 08:19

Great post from Xulu on LSE;


BCN having a nice revival. They are double our MCap now - and i'd be surprised if we don't come in with an NPV double their's when we publish our PFS in March.

If you take their $750M as a base case to work from in comparison:

We need $153M less Capex. Using the same 8% discount used by BCN, over 20 year initial LoM that is worth $600M extra on the NPV.

We are producing Lithium at >$1000/T cheaper. Assuming 35kT/y production as BCN, thats >$35M saving every year over 20 years = $700M without taking into account compound interest.

BCN went with $6000/t selling price... Well that's conservative even a year ago at the time. Let's assume $8000/t for a contract now as a conservative long-term figure given contracts are this year $11000. At 35kT/y that's an extra $70M/y. Over 20 years its $1.4 Billion before compound interest.

Now consider we will have cheaper transport to our customers. Consider the much higher payback/IRR. Consider no competition in Europe. Consider the 15% increased Lithium recoveries from our recent metalwork studies. Consider the shallow high-grade Lithium we've discovered to start our mine off on. Consider that Tin prices have fully recovered allowing further cost offsets.

These are obviously rough figures, but the point is, put all this together and the NPV that comes out of our PFS is going to be huge. It will dwarf BCN's. Both BCN and EMH's PFS will focus only on a small portion of their resource.

It will be +$2Billion because our margins are so high - Producing carbonate for $1000 and selling it for $8000. That means that for example if someone was to pay $2Billion

for us now - it'd be the same as them investing $2Billion in a managed fund that brings them a guaranteed constant 8% return for 20 years. Something that any large investor would be ecstatic about. The reason they use such a high figure is to provide security for the buyer.

Our current Mcap is $55M. This is the share tip of 2017, not BCN.

(for the record, BCN's revised FS due in the summer will also take into account higher lithium prices and thus a much larger NPV)

[3dwd] 06/1/2017 08:00

Article in today's ft about lithium bubble..

[diesel] 05/1/2017 23:31

Talk of "news on the way", is bit of an old chestnut! Surely the rise is more to do with being tipped in the Mail, as a share for 2017, and the corporate activity elsewhere in the sector.

[melody9999] 05/1/2017 22:45

I think the Tesla GIGA factory commencing production has craeted renewed interest in lithium and lithium miners. I hold no position here but do hold EMH well placed to supply the Europeam market.

[hutch_pod] 05/1/2017 16:38

I guess with lithium prices significantly higher, and underlined by the Shandong - Birimian deal, as well as the mexican peso falling further, the economics seem to be moving in the right direction.

[steeplejack] 05/1/2017 12:09

The daily volume since the New Year has been up around the half million mark,well above the Dec average.Slipped on low volume pre year end,rising on high volume since.This is an encouraging sign.

[simonsaid1] 05/1/2017 11:42

Thanks for all the informative replies. I am relatively new to AIM so perhaps a little naive! Well, a correction from the pre-xmas (silly) drop accounted for a return to 80p, stoked by the press tips. But today has far exceeded that so it is beginning to look like something else.

Perhaps someone with a higher-level account can get some clues from the types of trades compared with their volumes and get some idea of what's going on. I note that most of the trades are still very small, which suggests yet more PI's piling in, perhaps having seen tips in the press and noting the price is still below its 12 month highs and well below the few price targets out there (circa 120p), even now.

On a personal level, cursing myself for not trusting my original investment case for BCN and topping up last week at 65p.

[steeplejack] 05/1/2017 11:22

Well,you're right of course and there's the old City comment that observes that "someone always knows and someone always tells".The problem lies in the fact that prop books and the like often stoke speculation that news is imminent pretending that they know something.As far as insider trading is concerned,it is not illegal to be in possession of insider information,it is only illegal if you use that info to make take unfair advantage and make a profit.I don't suppose that the price rise here is anymore than recovery from the fall seen pre Xmas plus a few paper and broker tips but it's nicer to think that a deal is imminent and news of this has leaked out.Most inside information is a bit like a First World War trench,A tells B who tells C etc with an appendage that this comes from a reliable source.Ultimately,it can all become a bit muddled.

[bookwormrobert] 05/1/2017 11:15

Hi Simonsaid1 - yes, this does happen all the time, with the bad companies on AIM. The good companies are much more responsible with information. It's actually a tell-tale sign of trouble ahead.
I'll think more of the BoD of BCN if there ISN'T an RNS today!

[hazelst] 05/1/2017 11:09

Happens all the time Simon......welcome to AIM.

[simonsaid1] 05/1/2017 11:05

People keep saying this must mean good news is on the way. But doesn't that imply insider trading? If somebody knows good news is coming and is buying up stock on the cheap to ride the wave... how can that not be considered insider trading?

[hazelst] 05/1/2017 11:02

It will be interesting to see how we do in Canada this afternoon. If the rise continues news must be on the way.Remember we are in advanced negotiations.

[rossowheels] 05/1/2017 10:55

There is no smoke without fire as they say.

[cpap man] 05/1/2017 10:04

Apart from BCN & REM also other LITHIUM plays such as PREM but best of the lot perhaps KOD?!?!?

[3dwd] 05/1/2017 09:20

Started to buy a few BCN.. As well as REM.. I see 100p target..

[jimmmy] 05/1/2017 08:08

more than nothing going on ?

[hutch_pod] 04/1/2017 14:51

So BCN has 6m lithium carbonate tonnes and mcap of £88.64m, albeit lower grade. Under £12 per tonne.

Looking at spangels comment below - not sure if you can do this so simply but converting the the Shandong deal payment from Li2O to Li2CO3 gives £111/tonne roughly. Quite a premium.

Spangel :

Birimian Gold – offer of A$107.5m for its Bougouni ‘Golamina̵7; asset values A$469 (US$341) per lithium resource tonne

The offer by Shandong Mingrui Group appears to be bang on the average value for lithium resources which looks like a nice deal for Shandong considering the relatively high grade of Birimian’s Golamina resource at 1.8-2.2% lithium (Li2O) for 229,000t of contained lithium metal.
The weighted average on our table of lithium producers is US$350/t though this is skewed by a relatively high valuation for Nemaska Lithium in Canada.
If we strip out the value of Nemaska Lithium then our weighted average value for lithium resources falls to US$260/t of lithium.
We suspect Shandong’s offer is based on the potential for increasing the Golamina lithium resource which is still a bit on the small size compared with others in our peer group.
Elsewhere Albemarle Corp, the US lithium and speciality chemicals group has just completed its acquisition of Jiangli New Materials in China for US$145m. The Jiangli New Material assets are focussed on the production of battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate have a total lithium salts capacity of 15,000tpa which Albemarle will raise to 20-25,000tpa.