Bacanora Lithium Share Discussion Threads

[dplewis1] 29/6/2019 23:03

You seem to be having issues with quite basic mathematics.. the market cap of Bacanora is nowhere near a billion..

[johncasey] 29/6/2019 21:17

1.7% of a billion is £17m..right? market cap = £10m..AND HOW MANY BILLIONS ARE WE TALKING?

[dssloan] 29/6/2019 21:14

Cadence will quadruple??

Not on its small percentage of 1.7%.

Bear in mind....

"Cadence also owns a 30% direct interest in The Megalit, Buenavista, and San Gabriel concessions, which are held by Megalit S.A de C.V (“Megalit̶1;) which when combined with Cadences’ direct interest of 6.95% in Bacanora, has a total economic interest in Megalit of 34.85%.

These areas are not part of the mining plans of the Sonora Lithium Project and have not been assessed in sufficient detail to provide a 43-101 compliant Mineral Resource Estimate."

[johncasey] 29/6/2019 20:51

been told by a city boy tonight that cadence will quadruple on this news monday..and more..silly market cap

[tidy 2] 29/6/2019 20:41

It's happening 250yr LOM. Bacanora Lithium Ltd - Mining Capital Conference May 2019 youtu.be/6HWR9olah78 via @YouTube #BCNhTtps://youtu.be/6HWR9olah78

[abbett1] 29/6/2019 19:31

Wasn't far off.

[tidy 2] 29/6/2019 18:29

VSA had a £1.14 target. Multiply that now me thinks.

[cudmore] 29/6/2019 13:03

Pwhite thinks ‘cornerstone’ is a company 😆😆😆

Tidy2

This is a biggy. So many would have missed the RNS coming out at 4.00pm. Reckon we’ll see some of the big analyst’s talking about this on Monday. Would be interesting to see brokers share price predictions on this one now. Should see it on some Sunday Share tips across the broadsheets. I’m expecting £1+ at least over the first view trading days.

[dan1nat1] 29/6/2019 13:00

Whether the US "allows" Mexico to trade with China...lol can it actually stop it?Beside which the US and China are restarting trade talks, as confirmed today -G20 summit: Trump and Xi agree to restart US-China trade talks https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48810070

[tidy 2] 29/6/2019 12:55

ganfeng's commitment to the sonora project will be demonstrated during the financing of both the equity and project funding stages of the capital expenditure required to complete stage 1 of the sonora project... so, in conjunction with our existing senior debt facility from rk mine finance, we are now much closer to completing the construction funding for stage 1 and transforming bacanora into a major supplier of battery grade lithium...we are demonstrating our intention to be the cornerstone funding partner for bacanora at a corporate and project level going forward... the cornerstone funding partner...

[cudmore] 29/6/2019 11:58

Pwhite73

It’s now been signed. THE DEAL IS DONE! It’s massive news. We’ll see how the market reacts on Monday. I’m sure it will the biggest riser of the day.

[gersemi] 29/6/2019 10:59

What is this company conceivably worth?

[marvelman] 29/6/2019 10:53

Pwhite..thank you for your input. In summary it would seem that my glass is more than half full and yours is much less so. I continue to be invested however.

[xtrack] 29/6/2019 10:46

BMW recently said that batteries in 2021 will be able to reach the 700km distance mark. This is essential for a broad customer acceptance of electric cars in my opinion.

BMW also said their aim to offer 25 different electric car models is brought forward from 2025 to 2023.

The automobile makers are already preparing the ground for higher lithium prices. And the combination with the mentioned shortage of project financings in your article will add fuel to the fire.

And trade tensions between US and China will soon be solved... they have to, Trump needs a success for the elections next year.

[gersemi] 29/6/2019 10:26

June 26, 2019

Lithium intervention needed for EV takeover

Battery metal prices have come off the boil in the last 12 months but the long-term undersupply scenario has not gone away. Lithium production only looks set to meet electric vehicle-driven demand in 2025 if every single project in development right now makes it into production, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

This is unlikely, given the realities of the mining sector. There have been positive moves recently, like Bacanora Lithium (BCN) getting the backing of Chinese major firm Ganfeng Lithium after struggling to raise cash for its Mexican project. Overall, though, it’s unlikely carmakers will have enough lithium supply to meet their planned moves to majority electric vehicle (EV) line ups. This is despite the abundance of lithium reserves in the ground.

Currently, the majority of lithium supply comes from Chile and Australia, with just nine operations providing the lion’s share of the 65,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) produced in 2018, according to the US geological survey.

Benchmark consultancy chief Andy Leyland said at a media briefing carmakers would push development along to guarantee supply. “You're starting to see the OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) realise [they’re] going to have to start taking steps to learn about these supply chains, and learn about these industries,” he said. “The alternative to the OEMs not doing it, quite frankly, is the oil and gas industry doing it, because they're the losers from this, and they've got plenty of money.”

Volkswagen (Ger:VOW) has been held up as an example of an industry laggard, both on committing to EVs and locking down cobalt and lithium supply. It now has an agreement with Ganfeng Lithium. Elon Musk has also floated the idea of getting into mining.

Former Tesla supply chain manager Vivas Kumar, now principal consultant at Benchmark, said if carmakers left themselves beholden to miners and speciality chemical companies it would very difficult to keep EV prices stable. “You cannot just rely on your cell manufacturer to manage your prices, because they have made it abundantly clear they just don't care,” he said.

The lithium supply chain has already seen more M&A activity than cobalt or nickel since the EV boom began in 2015, with the biggest deal coming last year with Chinese company Tianqi Lithium buying a quarter of the world’s second-largest producer, Sociedad Química y Minera (US:SQM) for $4.1bn (£3.2bn). Other Chinese companies specialising in producing batteries or the lithium products that go into them have bought plenty of stakes in junior miners, across hard rock and brine developers.

Leyland said SQM and Albermarle (US:ALB), the world’s largest producer with a market capitalisation of $7.2bn, were not big companies compared with oil and gas majors and carmakers, with their combined market capitalisation of $10bn less than 10 per cent of BP's (BP.) valuation.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) and BP declined to comment on the prospect of buying lithium miners. Both companies have so far stuck to infrastructure such as charging points.

IC View

Carmakers have previously bottled supply agreements with battery mineral producers (see Volkswagen demanding cobalt in an under-supplied market in 2017) and the current price lows have taken away some of the supercharged development from the mining side. The mining industry’s inability to finance projects means carmakers might have no choice but to throw billions at guaranteeing future supply through M&A and project finance.

[pwhite73] 29/6/2019 10:16

marvelman - "Clearly the issue here is funding which is now by default guaranteed to happen"

Not necessarily this is a highly politicised subject area. The reason why this private deal requires the approval of the Chinese authorities is because China has strict controls on currency leaving the country. Many listed stocks have had deals collapse because Chinese money promised on signed and stamped contracts had never materialised. Bagir being the latest.

You may also be aware there are geopolitical concerns particularly from the US about China cornering the world's supply of Rare Earth Minerals and other minerals required in electric cars and mobile gadgets. Indeed as part of the trade war with the US, China threatened to restrict the supply of Rare Earth Minerals to the US.

The Sonora project is in Mexico - South America. There are existing tensions between Mexico and the US and China and the US. Whether the US will allow Mexico to continue to ship minerals to China that are essential to its battery powered industries such as Lithium is yet to be seen.

Furthermore unless I am mistaken wasn't this whole Sonora project suppose to be funded by numerous investors - The Sultanate of Oman as per RNS 01/04/2019, Hanwa the Japanese company and Southern Copper of Mexico. When did these companies lose interest? to be supplanted by Ganfeng.

My personal view is that the Sonora Project is so large and lucrative it cannot jump through all the political, environmental, financial and regulatory hurdles required to get off the ground just yet. This is why its being bounced around from one strategic investor to the next. In the meanwhile small shareholders need to be mindful of potential placings to keep this dream on the road.

[dssloan] 29/6/2019 09:59

Oh dear.... "Cornerstone".

Poor PWhite 73 (alias Mercier et Camier).

None of us are infallible.

[xtrack] 29/6/2019 09:34

PWhite: in May it was just a LOI (letter of intent). Now it is a signed and binding contract. So there is a large difference between both RNS.

[marvelman] 29/6/2019 09:06

PWhite

Clearly the issue here is funding which is now by default guaranteed to happen through the auspices of Ganfeng. The fact that this project is now virtually certain to be up and running within a 2 year timeframe is key. The NPV of the asset has surely not begun to realise its true worth in the share price but with a Chinese investor of such stature and determination it surely will....if it is not just simply bought out before that. The first stage of owning 30% of the company is already in place.

The company that is investing here is not Cornerstone and you may have picked up that name from this part of the RNS:-

"We are demonstrating our intention to be the cornerstone funding partner for Bacanora at a corporate and project level going forward. Over the rest of 2019, we will work closely with Bacanora's management team to optimise project capital costs and evaluate potential economies of scale in the Sonora Project."

All in my opinion but always grateful for yours and any other opinion as the story here is still unfolding.

[pwhite73] 29/6/2019 08:43

Couple of salient points.

This RNS was already published in its entirety on 20/05/2019. All that's happened is that the proposal has been signed off by both parties and awaiting approval by the Chinese government.

The deal involves the issuance of 29.99% of shares to Cornerstone in exchange for £14.4m. Again mentioned in the 20 May 2019 RNS. So if approved a near 30% dilution will ensue but at what share price?

Why the RNS at 4.00pm instead of 7.00am well to escape the critical eye of online AIM commentators like Vox Markets and Shareprophets who would have already finished publishing for the day.

Nothing new really hence the sellers taking advantage of the surprise tick up.

[marvelman] 29/6/2019 08:00

Switched off my monitor at 3.00 p.m. and sitting here with a cup of coffee wiping my eyes to see if I am really awake. As someone else commented, a very unusual time to announce such incredibly good news as I would have been expecting a disastrous RNS at that time of the trading week. So its sit around now and wait to see just where the market believes the share price should be...and it will be wonderful to watch. I think I will have another cup of coffee and toast all of you who believed in the story here.

[dplewis1] 29/6/2019 07:08

Nope, they sold the shares they bought for a quid at 20p to fund their salaries. The only thing going up 400% at KDNC is the number of shares in issue..

[johncasey] 28/6/2019 22:58

will cadence rise 400% monday? this news is bigger than macarthurs