Axa Property Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 13/9/2012 10:20

It's an early evening kick off and I've got a function on, so unfortunately not.

[badtime] 13/9/2012 10:15

Tilts u coming down to the amex end of september?

[tiltonboy] 13/9/2012 09:51

SBP,

No problem. Indeed SKYSHIP is one of the most respected posters on the board, and a source of great information/research for me.

Right, enough of the back-slapping, let's find the next winner.

[badtime] 13/9/2012 08:58

SBP..think uncle arthur and then u hav sky :)

[stupidboypike] 13/9/2012 08:36

tiltonboy, I'd already worked out you were a class act and I don't think SKYSHIP is too shabby himself!!
I really like this "buy at deep discount, wait for value" approach.

I will contact you when funds are released (on the sale of my property, may be a while!!!)

Best regards

SBP

[tiltonboy] 12/9/2012 23:55

SKYSHIP,

You embarrass me, but thanks for those kind words.

SBP,

Don't be put off by SKYSHIP's words!!!

[yieldsearch] 12/9/2012 21:44

Italy is 21% by value (IMS march 2012)
in itself not a huge concern but need to be discounted

AGNADELLO
Using google map, i just cannot find the asset in Agnadello ( tenant should be /Stock House Italia Logistic Srl 11 Via Strada Statale Bergamina, Agnadello, CR 26020 Italy‎??). However it is not really in logistics area, it seems more a small town ( no large town close by, far from motorways). So if the tenant is leaving, they may struggle to relet, and i am quite surprised ( read shocked) that it is valued at 8.39% ( last fact sheet), bearing in mind that the tenant may be leaving

scburbs: fully agree with you. the company will have to justify putting more money (repay the loan), and should anyway get a new valuation. I have seen situation like this where the company just walk away from the property.

https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en_uk&ll=45.447366,9.557848&spn=0.030499,0.066047&gl=GB&t=h&z=15


CURNO
this leisure property let to UCI Italia. Seems to be better located,close to a shopping centre, and also access to motorway but again valuation of a leisure asset at 7.03% in Italy??




So all in all, not ready to buy yet. When is the company supposed to provide new valuation on the properties? I am expecting a further reduction in value.


some more reading, sadly applicable to a number of property companies in europe

[sleepy] 12/9/2012 18:26

Not very obvious but APT only have a 50% share in the Agnadello property. I think lease expires in June 2014. Recent announcement suggested to me that tenant would not renew. Wonder what the value would be without a tenant?

[skyship] 12/9/2012 18:01

SBP - Tilts is a class act - but you may have to own a worthwhile portfolio to participate!!!

There again, you are a fellow ADVFN poster - so that might help...

[stupidboypike] 12/9/2012 13:21

tiltonboy - ah that explains it!! many thanks. Might well contact you when funds permit. I am just lining up the ideas at the moment but will be in earnest before too long (I hope!)

Best regards
SBP

[madmix] 12/9/2012 09:57

If you're a private investor (like me) and you want to be able to place trades on the order book, I personally use iDealing.

[tiltonboy] 12/9/2012 09:54

E-mail at hotmail.com if you want to speak.

[tiltonboy] 12/9/2012 09:54

SBP,

I am a broker.

[stupidboypike] 12/9/2012 09:50

tiltonboy,

If you don't mind me asking, do you use a broker or do you manage to buy yourself online and if so how? I'm thinking that the odd % on buying and selling makes a big difference.

Best regards

SBP

[scburbs] 12/9/2012 08:18

Skyship, That is the proportion of the gross property value, the proportion of NAV should be lower due to the higher gearing in Agnadello.

The Agnadello asset is valued at Euro12m with debt of 8m (APT's share of both). This means NAV of 4m (i.e. a smaller proportion of net assets than its 9.3% share of gross assets).

At 67% LTV there is a serious question mark as to whether APT should inject more money for a refi especially as the valuation will be very subjective (liquidity in Italian property market is very low at the moment so there will be no comparables).

APT should be looking to take advantage of the desparation of the lender to get out (i.e. only put in more money in exchange for a discount). It is highly unlikely the lender will want to exercise its security as they can't sell it at the moment.

[skyship] 12/9/2012 07:34

20% at last valuation, ie 12p ex 60p. Note there are just two Italian assets; and both are North of Milan. Personally not concerned - perhaps to be conservative assume a 20% write-down there....

[scburbs] 11/9/2012 22:05

YieldSearch,

Italian assets 3rd & 4th largest are certainly a concern for me, but I am also tempted.

The statement below is worrying. Not sure I would be keen (if I were a holder) in APT injecting more funds (preserving cash in order to waste it?) in order to get a new loan. They need to be looking for a discounted take out (not sure they have enough firepower for that though).

"The loan of €8.0m at Agnadello in Italy expires in December 2012. In light of hardening attitudes of lenders generally to property loans, the Agnadello lender's recently stated desire to withdraw from non-core markets, and the now relatively short maturity of this loan, the Board believe that the Company should be preserving cash to prudently manage the contingent restructuring of this loan, should the current lease renewal discussion not be satisfactorily concluded."



Skyship, Any idea what proportion of net assets is represented by Italy? If they got wiped out in Italy would they still look good value?

[badtime] 11/9/2012 22:03

4 is easy to answer...no decision made to wind up the company and as far as I know the normal activists aren't on the scene...yet

[yieldsearch] 11/9/2012 21:05

Tempted to buy but a few concerns, views appreciated

1) looking at the factsheet, top 10 assets, i was surprised to see the second asset (italian leisure) valued at yield of 7.6%?? Given the situation in Italy ( and the fact that the existing lender are not willing to renew), this valuation is bound to reduce? Also some industrial assets valued at 6%?? is the valuer sleepy??
2) From the IMS: "The Company's net property yield on current market valuation (after acquisition and operating costs) as at 31 March 2012 was 7.17% (7.33% as at 31 December 2011)." also surprised to see yield reducing in this environment?
3) Asset in Eur and listed in GBP: anyone has view on the impact of gbpeur on nav? my understanding is that they only hedge the income side, so any payback to shareholders would be at spot fx on the day??
4) has there been any notification of formal liquidation of the company? Or I guess eventually through continuation vote, which brings me to the activist investors, it doesnt seems that there is currently the usuals make_the_existing_management_sweat activist investors?

As i said, tempted, no holding yet but great discount. views /comments on the above appreciated

[djderry] 11/9/2012 18:58

Thank you kindly Skyship.

[tiltonboy] 11/9/2012 15:09

no. I'm on the board at 28.5p.

You know me; tight on pricing!!!

[skyship] 11/9/2012 14:26

100k bought @ 29.5p - Was that you Tilts?

[skyship] 10/9/2012 16:56

Sold for E6.6 million. I think it was in the books at E6.0m (3.93% of the £124m Total Assets in the Interims).

[djderry] 10/9/2012 16:47

Do we know how much they sold it for and how much it was valued on the books?

[skyship] 10/9/2012 16:17

Good news. That didn't take long...

==============================================
10 September 2012

Subject: Sale of asset at Pankower Allee, Berlin

ASSET SALE NOTARISED

Further to the Company's announcement of 21 August 2012, the Board is pleased to announce that a Sale and Purchase contract for the Company's property at Pankower Allee, Berlin, was signed on 7 September 2012. Receipt of sales proceeds is expected to take place before the end of 2012.
==============================================