Axa Property Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 22/8/2012 08:01

Hmm - difficult to read. Certainly a very strong buy @ 30p as a wind-up (which is highly likely) will certainly provide something north of 50p...

[djderry] 21/8/2012 19:17

I suspect the market won't like this.What do they mean by 'winding-up'? How would that work in practice? Many shareholders hold this co. for its dividend.Obviously,I want them to be prudent but I want to see a clear path to reducing the discount to NAV.

[paul1966] 19/8/2012 11:28

Hmmm, no news release on dividend to end of June - usually gets notified in first week of August

[specuvestor] 15/8/2012 17:42

Just dipped back in myself at 34.3 after selling in the mid fifties last year.

Winterflood reckon its too risky because of Euro Zone Crisis, heavy gearing and exposure to Secondary Retail German Property which is vunerable to competition from internet sales.

However, according to the interim report the retail exposure is weighted towards food retailing and logistics. This swayed me and I am back in for a juicy 9% divi and large discount to NAV.

Regards to all who provide interesting commentary on all these Commercial Property companies.

[skyship] 07/8/2012 18:03

Bt a few today @ 34p...

[djderry] 07/8/2012 18:01

Yes,happy to hold,let's come back in a few years and see how it's done.

[zastas] 04/8/2012 15:29

Quiet.

APT has ben holding up well from early June onwards. More keen and generous bids now.

Latest news -27/7/12- seems excellent, under circumstances. I just foresee that with the deleveraging we may have to give up some NAV per share over the coming years. Still with a divi of about 9%, and for now NAV about twice the price, we should not complain; there are far worse shares out there.

[zastas] 05/7/2012 18:31

Djderry,

You and I obviously noticed the little shareprice lift over the last few days. Something positive seemed afoot, and it had to be this result of the anticipated and expected LTV test.

I too view it as positive, relatively. We all expect valuations to remain under downward pressure, but at this speed it remains manageable over several years, if that needs to happen. I am comfortable with my small renewed investment. Divi continues too; better than nothing on cash!

By the way, it looks like a few insiders must have had advance knowledge of these results . Despite all regulation and FSA's reasonable attempts, that continues to be the case.

[djderry] 05/7/2012 17:43

Any views on today's RNS re LTV?

[zastas] 23/5/2012 16:30

Indeed I am; in fact I could not wait any longer and have bought some 'peanuts' already!

As I said earlier, I do like the company, except for its high expenditure. And I still believe it should be only really good value when much cheaper. But I am tired of my cash sitting for nothing in accounts whilst the BOE is trying to inflate it away slowly but steadily......

[envirovision] 23/5/2012 14:16

You sound like your thinking of buying zastas

[zastas] 17/5/2012 11:41

Despite some interest by buyers yesterday, again big sellers remain.

The 3 pence spread has now collapsed, all because of lower and lower offers posted on the orderbook, with relatively large chunks. Now the bid is going too.

Still, the recent IMS was not as bad as I had foreseen a while ago. Perhaps the sellers are all going through a Divorce. Or are being 'rinsed' by some Channel-4 chancers!

[zastas] 02/5/2012 06:48

Still quiet. So far I'm wrong. There must be either a big buyer or a big seller holding the price so long at 34-35. There are plenty of shares being traded, sometimes many 100k.

SREI and PCTN have just announced some modest downward valuations. Will Europe's APT be the same, better or worse?

[zastas] 07/4/2012 12:48

It's quiet here. And not much has happened , in either direction. All waiting for those LTV reviews alter 2012 and the associated bank re-negotiations I suppose.

[zastas] 06/3/2012 15:14

The trouble with all property valuations, and by definition then APT's NAV, is that valuations of both Residential and Commercial is entirely dependant on support through borrowing, leverage.

Our houses would be only worth a fraction of today's value if banks would stop lending completely.

I have seen some Comprop nearby recently being sold at auction at about 20% of its loan ( I managed to decipher the 'tippexed' loan £ 1 million value), and still it has a 15% yield and 10 year new lease. Yes, it's second or third rate, but still. An unbelievable crash in valuation, but you understand if you assume that mortgages are not or hardly avilable on it now, where once LLoyds/HBOS lent freely to the bankrupt LTD, or stupidly if you want.

So , if we want to take comfort from any of these NAVs, essentially we believe that the volume and eagerness of lending by banks ,or others, will at least remain as it is. That's the worry.

[zastas] 06/3/2012 13:20

I take no pleasure out of seeing people lose money, I 've been there.

I would like to re-kindle my love for APT, as I have some warm memories of her embrace a few years ago. But the chart does not look good imho. It just seems to hold the assault before the next leg down.

As I wrote earlier, APT is dependant on one main lender ACA, itself severely under pressure in late 2011. I know because I did buy then and still have ACA shares! Today reports in I believe The Times of how apparently only few large European banks are prepared to lend now on ComProp in a significant way. And then only on top-notch ones.

Firstly, because of the more difficult and pricy borrowing funds in the MMs. But also because of the impending Basel III requirements, which will make lending on Comprop at today's rates just not profitable enough.

We'll see, I may be very wrong of course. But a futher LTV assessment on APT is coming up later in 2012.

[djderry] 02/3/2012 22:05

Thanks for your reply zastas,I suppose what I meant is that I'm fairly comfortable with the NAV of 63/64p,with the steps taken to address the LTV stress tests and the indication of reinstating the previous level of dividend.However,I agree with you fully on the level of fees.

[sleepy] 02/3/2012 15:56

Sun Life, at the time an Axa Group company, disclosed a 29.9% holding in APT just after the IPO in 2005.

I believe Sun Life has now been sold to Resolution Limited, the UK quoted company. Does anyone know if Sun Life/Resolution still have a shareholding in APT and, if so, how large it is?

[zastas] 01/3/2012 15:30

Depends on your definition of positive.

A big loss owing to downwards revaluation. LTV covenant of max 50% under pressure. Main lender, ACA will want to reduce its balance sheet.

Imho it's even worse than I described a few weeks ago.

Gross rental just 6.2 million. Cost 900.000, net rental 5.3 million.
Then again fat fees and costs. Fee plus total expenses at 1.66 million.
Total 2.56, now well more than 40% of income.

Then finance cost plus loan arrangement costs at 2.15 million.

So just leaves 6.2 minus 4.71 = about 1.5 million. Per share 1.5 pence of true income. On an annual basis just 3 pence.

Yes , they appear to have some half-decent properties but they're under pressure and consuming fat too high costs and fees. New LTV valuations coming up very soon. IMHO not near good value at this stage.

Perhaps djderry, you and I should make a takeover offer, chuck out the fat management and strip out costs!

[djderry] 29/2/2012 21:57

Positive half-yearly report.

[djderry] 03/2/2012 20:23

Added more today,I just feel they are way oversold. (However,I also thought that at 50p!).

[davebowler] 01/2/2012 10:54

I own APT and RECI too and can see merits in each.
RECI is of course geared too, through its Prefs.

[djderry] 30/1/2012 16:58

Interesting posts guys,thank you.

[zastas] 28/1/2012 09:25

Is a cash P/E of 5 ludicrously low?

Well, you can compare with what's on offer with investing in Property Debt versus Equity. Outright debt is available at 10-15% yields.

As an share-based investment, a comparison with small RECI is appropriate. It invests in debt and the ordinaries are expected to give at least a 150% return by 2017, even if property prices would modestly further drop. That's an annual yield-to-return of about 20%.

Only if property prices would drop by a further 30% this return becomes progressively endangered. But a 30% drop in APT would plunge the NAV to 25 pence, and long before then APT would be in trouble with all its debt covenants, leading to even higher interest margins and refinancing fees, and even lower cash income earnings.

So, I believe a P/E of 5 is not an unreasonable demand.


Disclaimer: I own RECI, perhaps too many of them.

[zastas] 28/1/2012 08:56

To elaborate, once Libor becomes normal at 3-4% APT will be paying 6-7%. That's approx 4-5 Million.

It leaves as genuine cash earnings, not accountancy NAV uplifts, about 3 million for 100 million shares.

It then depends on what kind of yield you demand to compensate for any further risk or, potential. Even high quality comprop is available in auctions at 8-10%.

At a P/E of 10-5 that would be about 30-15 pence per share as reasonable valuation.