Axa Property Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 08/9/2012 13:20

Specu - like you bought a few just before the news - paid 34p for an exploratory 2%. Have since taken my stake up to my maximum 10%.

To my mind, or certainly to my modus operandi, the dividend is irrelevant. I'll take it as income or capital. Its all the same at the end of the day...

[specuvestor] 08/9/2012 09:16

Hello Skyship

You are not alone. Put some of these in my SIPP just before the recent divi suspension so I am smarting a bit. Thinking of adding more to the ISA. When do you think divi will be reinstated, if ever?

[madmix] 07/9/2012 15:32

Picked up a few on the bid today at 29p. Tried to get them for less over the past few days, but no one keen to sell lower down it seems (famous last words!)

Thanks for flagging them up Skyship.

[skyship] 05/9/2012 07:38

You'll soon have some from HPEQ....& perhaps INRE too

[badtime] 04/9/2012 19:25

lol@sky i will be joining u but no funds available yet

[skyship] 04/9/2012 17:42

AXA themselves are in there with 28.5%, possibly more. Tilts may well have a handle on that one.

[praipus] 04/9/2012 16:24

Looking at the register there are some large nominee's anyone know who the holders are? (Apart from Tilton that is:-)

NB No holding here just browsing.

[skyship] 04/9/2012 16:17

How is it you always get the cheapest prices? Pay up you cheapskate you!!

Seriously though, great to have you aboard. I was feeling rather lonely here with none of the regular property players yet joining in...

[tiltonboy] 04/9/2012 15:40

Had a starting nibble at 28.25p and then got gazumped!!!

[skyship] 02/9/2012 11:51

Interesting to take a look at the share price performance of a selection of the smaller property companies with European portfolios.

MERE & TEIF have outperformed as the former is now in wind-up mode; whilst the latter has been liquidating a good %age of its portfolio.

ALPH, APT & IERE have by and large been tracking each other, but the share price mire in which APT has been sharing seems a tad anomalous in view of its far better fundamentals - especially now.

I LOVE stockmarket anomalies. Anomalies such as SREI which 3-4 months ago were battered down to an absurd 11% yield as Lloyds sold down its holding - they've risen 23% since the tap exhausted!

At the moment I seem to be a bit out on a limb viewing this as a great BUY. Hopefully others will take a look and come to the same conclusion that @ 29.5p this has zilch downside and very serious upside potential...

[skyship] 29/8/2012 14:46

An extract from today's RNS:
============================
- The sale of the asset at Treuchtlingen, Germany, completed at EUR5.7 million on 6 July 2012. An offer has been accepted for the asset at Pankower Allee, Germany, for EUR6.6 million, and it is expected to be notarised in the next few weeks.
============================

So it would seem that the most serious of the three deficiencies/concerns voiced in last week's RNS is actually not a problem at all.

The RNS also confirms the NAV at a smidgeon over 60p. They can be bought for 29.66p; so the NAV discount = over 50%.

Wind-up or no wind-up, these are cheap. But IMO there has to be more behind last week's RNS; and the early skirmishes of a future wind-up strategy are fairly obvious. Just wish the Board had the courage of its convictions and would get on with it.

[djderry] 28/8/2012 22:31

Many of the assets are in stronger performing markets i.e.,Germany.Why not ride out the downturn,pay a (reduced) dividend and,if they wish to sell,do so in an uptrending market?

[skyship] 28/8/2012 17:01

Yes, I think AXA hold the largest tranche - presumably that 28.4% below:

# State Street Nominees - 28.4%
# Nutraco Nominees - 7.2%
# Transact Nominees - 6.7%

[sleepy] 28/8/2012 15:53

Sky - from memory there is a 29% shareholder here who appears in Annual Report under a nominee name. Historically I think this shareholding was linked to Axa or one of its subsidiaries. Axa might not favour a wind-up as much as some other shareholders?

[skyship] 25/8/2012 11:46

zastas - seems as though we follow the same stocks/sectors. Currently APT & RECI; and historically the ZDPs.

That "Splits" recovery in 2002/5 was a dream period - a once in a generation opportunity to profit, perhaps unfortunately, from the stupidity, sheer ignorance or naivety of others. The forum for many of us then was the JDT thread - and it lives on, renewed each year; though regrettably a thread now not as active as it once was.

Thankfully, after the Zeros, there came the Property Investment Cos (PICs) as covered on the CP+ thread; then as profits slowed down there the time for the Private Equity Trusts recovery dawned - led of course by wunderkind HPEQ - and that and others are covered to a limited extent on the PE thread; and naturally those in wind-up mode arrive onto the SL thread.

In these latter categories, have you looked at NRI - to my mind an HPEQ Mk2? Apologies if you have done so & have posted, but didn't see a post on NRI in yr history.

[badtime] 25/8/2012 10:24

Looking to buy on a bad day when hopefully the share price is lower

[zastas] 25/8/2012 06:37

I agree. Regard it now as a zero-dividend investment. Many of us have happy memories of these! Your numbers are mine, although some considerable up or downside over several years would not surprise me.

They are good value, but I have several bids sitting on the orderbook for the next month, just in case there is a further drop.

[skyship] 24/8/2012 15:05

Anyone else got any views on this? The news seems to have been greeted with remarkable equanimity here. Perhaps long-suffering shareholders have been under the cosh so long they are enured to further bad news.

The point I make above is that when re-read the RNS isn't bad news. On the contrary I believe it makes a very clear case as to why these are now an excellent BUY!

[skyship] 23/8/2012 21:35

In the very short term we've seen some selling from income acquisitive PIs and maybe one fund AT selling yesterday afternoon; but the key to that RNS yesterday is twofold:

1. The very last paragraph which IMO is the precursor to a Strategy Change - meaning an expeditious winding-up

2. Read carefully what was actually stated as the reasoning behind this latest dividend suspension and you find:

# The Italian jv refinancing was already known
# The £230,000 shortfall on the LTV is immaterial
# The only bad news is a short-term cashflow concern over a secure sale where there were other bidders - this was a sale of a small retail park just outside Berlin; a retail park anchored by a supermarket operated by Germany's largest supermarket chain.

What will now happen is that the Board will perhaps go through the seemly procedure of discussing the company's future; but perhaps more likely that other shareholders will intervene and say GET ON WITH IT.

The investment managers, AXIM, will be given their 12months notice and new investment managers appointed and incentivised to expedite liquidation over circa the next 3years.

What traders/investors/opportunists now need to do is run the numbers for the likely payout and calculate the Gross Redemption yield from buying at what could be a bargain 29.7p.

# Let's assume a healthy discount down from that current 62.3p NAV
# Let's settle for a near 20% discount down to 50p
# Let's go with a 3yr liquidation to 30th Jun'15
# Let's eschew any revenue over that period - surely too conservative

Then, plug the numbers into the spreadsheet, et voila - a GRY of 20.0%

There is little if any downside as this is now not a struggling entity; just plenty of juicy upside for those prepared to take a little time and look under the bonnet.

[skyship] 23/8/2012 07:45

Interesting that yesterday afternoon saw c600k AT sales @ 28.25p. As there has to be someone the other side of that trade we may see a delayed buy at some stage - perhaps when the buyer has completed...

[skyship] 22/8/2012 13:34

pip-uk - will do...

[zastas] 22/8/2012 12:33

Well paul1966, it was well-spotted and here's then the answer.

Perhaps not unexpected. Whether retaining or paying out dividend should ultimately not matter, unless you need income. Retaining at the margin should be better eventually, as it should reduce interest rate payable on loans.

Disappointing to see the hold-up of the notarisation of the Berlin property, which could be seen as the major factor behind the decision to suspend divis temporarily.

Good to see that management identifies the same issues as written about here before:
- liquidity, or absence of it, is key
- need for ongoing deleveraging and cash conservation
- one lender, ?ACA, indeed aiming to deleverage itself and withdraw from 'non- essential' lending.
- even acknowledge the " relatively high" TER; it's as if they have taken my single criticism too much on board.

All this may/ will reduce in all probability the residual NAV expected in x years, but it should not reduce imho the attraction of holding APT for the next few years.

[pip_uk] 22/8/2012 11:30

Got you at last Skyship.
My all means please update LSG board I haven`nt the capability.
Cheers.

[skyship] 22/8/2012 11:21

djderry - "What do they mean by 'winding-up'? How would that work in practice?"

Take a look at the SL thread - an increasing number of property companies, hedge funds and private equity trusts are opting to liquidate and pay all back to shareholders - usually via tender offers.

Ihis rather specialist sector has become a happy hunting ground, an area usually dominated by other hedge funds & arbitrageurs - also see the WAM thread.

HPEQ has been one of the greats; I expect NRI to be another.

APT could well become one and most certainly the small PIs selling below 30p are just giving away capital because they've lost what they thought was a reliable income stream.

As a very "Back of Envelope" initially rather conservative estimate, let's say that these opt for liquidation (a given IMO) and do so over 3 years to, say, 30th Jun'15 returning 50p - ie 19.8% less than the Mar'12 NAV - then the GRY (Gross Redemption Yield) excluding any interim dividend payments will be 20.3%........

Much further thought required, but I've doubled up today and am likely to add further.