Axa Property Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 28/8/2013 08:05

ND - thnx for that - but now doesn't show under yesterday's trades. Perhaps a mistake...

[badtime] 27/8/2013 21:17

sky must be top slicing

[nil desperandum] 27/8/2013 19:12

trades of 1.7m and 1.2m gone through late this pm at 38p...

[rearsky] 27/8/2013 09:43

There is a better sentiment on German CRE this quarter, which should help APT liquidate its good quality assets:

[jaws6] 27/8/2013 09:30

I see some other german property co upgrade today by broker

[badtime] 16/8/2013 12:27

They really aren't encouraging much trade

[mozy123] 12/8/2013 09:25

Break-out on the cards this morning?

[mozy123] 09/8/2013 16:29

hxxp://www.savills.co.uk/_news/newsitem.aspx?intSitePageId=0&intNewsSitePageId=169628-0&intNewsMonth=8&intNewsYear=2013

Balanced write up - Points I pick out that in my view are most significant;

Prime is doing alot better than secondary,

German estate trasnfer tax 2014. (unsure if any effect here)

Higher risk property yields remain flat.

With interest rate remaining low for an extended period and with prime yeilds being compressed secondary could be the new high yield bond investment in a similar way they became priced up when A+ corp bonds became unattractive in 2011 etc.

Other than Euro sterling risk, managers fees for the next few years and the Ang loan propery, this could protentially suprise to the upside in the next report later this month.. fingers crossed.

[skyship] 09/8/2013 15:09

Mozy - that pretty much sums it up.

I suspect the liquidation may take up to 30months; but even so the Gross Redemption Yield at the end of the day will be in the 12%-15% range.

[mozy123] 09/8/2013 14:39

NAV at the last interim was 60.48p

At 39.25p to buy thats a 35.1% discount to NAV

35% return in 2 years does look compelling to me.

Risks - The Euro/Sterling rate.

Yields on the properties are c.7.5% so any improvement in the Euro Area will see these compress.

Selling the assets into a moderatly improving market should be helpful.

[langland] 09/8/2013 13:15

Well I have just bought a lump as well -not showing yet-suspect it will be shown late. There does seem to be some stock around.

[badtime] 09/8/2013 12:42

Let's hope so

[skyship] 09/8/2013 12:07

"Holdings" update today - see Header.

KG Investments were yesterday's buyer as they took their stake from 6.2m to 7.1m
(7.1%)...

BT - you may have timed your top-up rather well.

[skyship] 09/8/2013 08:38

BT – Yes, I noticed the sudden jump in volume yesterday. Looks as though that 39p ceiling may break soon:

[badtime] 08/8/2013 22:22

Bought a few more today i c the bid was 39p at one stage

[skyship] 07/8/2013 09:40

redhill - personally I have 55p to 31/03/2016 in my spreadsheet. That provides a GRY of 13.86% @ 39p.

I regularly adjust the input stats. On my model @ 39p the GRY for 53p by 31/12/2015 would be 13.64%.

Anyway, however you play the numbers, they all seem to underline the great value here - especially if they resolve Agnadello in some way.

Incidentally the Interims were on 21st August last year. So hopefully we will see a better update on the portfolio disposal position very shortly...

[redhill9] 06/8/2013 17:22

Skyship, any update on your thoughts on what the ultimate realised NAV per share might be? I've got 53p in my spreadsheet representing discount of 15% to NAV, and with a cash dispersal date of 31/12/15 which equates to around 13.5% GRY from now.

Seem reasonable to you?

[skyship] 06/8/2013 16:45

This was in the IMS on 17th May:

"Offers were also received for the assets at Koethen and Montabaur, both in Germany. Negotiations to agree a final price on each are on-going. A further asset in Germany, Karben, has been introduced to the market and has attracted significant interest. Offers are expected shortly."

Today's RNS most welcome, but the sales of Dresden & Braunschweigerstrasse were very old news. Good however to read that Antwerp is once again Under Offer - should net us c.£6.5m.

But why didn't they at the same time update us with progress on Koethen, Montabaur & Karben!

IMHO a pretty bizarre RNS...

[asmodeus] 06/8/2013 16:16

06 August 2013
To: Company Announcements
Date: 6 August 2013
Company: AXA Property Trust Limited
Subject: Progress with Sales Strategy The Board is pleased to announce progress with the implementation of the sales strategy to deleverage the Company and continue with the orderly wind down of the portfolio approved by Shareholders at the EGM held in April 2013.
The sale of the Dresden asset in Germany has been completed at a price of EUR2.1m which shows a 7% improvement on the last valuation. The purchaser is the current tenant of the property Otto Gruber GmbH. This is a 2,700sqm stand-alone unit used for the sale and storage of car parts and is located in the Mickten District of the city.
The asset at Braunschweigerstrasse in Berlin has been notarised at a disposal price of EUR1.625m and is expected to complete later this month whilst the property in Antwerp, Belgium is formally under offer with completion expected in late September.

[skyship] 29/7/2013 12:12

Encouraging piece from PropertyWeek:
====================================

The UK retail investment market saw volumes almost double in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year according to research from Cushman & Wakefield.

The first six months of 2013 were 94% up compared to the first half of 2012 to £2.62bn. With a 32% market share the UK is Europe's largest retail investment market and saw volumes rise 14% on the first quarter of the year.

Investment transactions across Europe in the retail sector were up by 14% in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period the previous year.

€8.2bn of retail property was transacted in the second quarter and retail's market share was up to 25.3% compared to 20.8% the year before. The volume of retail investment in the second quarter is an 18 month high.

The advisory firm predicts a strong second half to the year also with a predicted 8% rise in volumes with increasing activity in central and eastern Europe.

Michael Rodda, head of EMEA retail investment at Cushman & Wakefield said: "While the retail market is seeing more demand, finding the right quality and location of property is a major challenge for investors. As a result some are starting to look further afield, while others are contemplating taking on more risk, usually via development, or pushing up pricing to encourage vendors to come forward."

[sleepy] 26/7/2013 14:44

Badtime - are you still nibbling?

[skyship] 26/7/2013 14:23

Interims 21st August last year...

[badtime] 01/7/2013 22:15

nibbled today

[smarm] 01/7/2013 18:07

scburbs - I really can't comment re whether it's good or bad business. All I can see is that as of June 2013 Agnadello Italy Industrial returns 8.42% yield and represents 9.18% of total assets.

So they have one difficult property in the portfolio...is that such a surprise?

S

[scburbs] 01/7/2013 16:36

Skyship,

I suppose so, but the Italian properties will be edging towards 30% of net assets (given the lower gearing), albeit valuation falls may pull this back down!

I am sure when I first looked at APT, the number on a net asset basis was more like 15% so it will have doubled due to this strategy of investing scarce shareholder resources in an illiquid Italian asset.