From WealthOracle a few months ago....
Avon Protection PLC is a technology company which designs and produces life critical personal protection systems to Military and First Responder markets. The Company’s products categories include respiratory protection and ballistic protection, its range of respiratory protection includes mask systems, powered and supplied air systems, filters, spares and accessories. The Company’s ballistic protection portfolio includes ballistic helmets and body armor as well as helmet liners and retention systems. The Company is a provider of general-purpose respirators, tactical forces respirators, powered air purifying respirators (PAPR) and tactical self-container breathing apparatus (SCBA) across the United States Department of Defense (U.S. DOD). Current market cap is around £915m. |
I can confirm they are in a closed period so Directors can not buy. One would hope they would be adding en masse at this price when results are released. |
jw330 why would management by buying cheap shares at the moment? They are in a close period with financial results due in the next few weeks. Share purchase activity should be looked for after the results are published. |
not a peep from management thus far. They only hold 5% of business so should be at least buying up some cheap shares. I would like to see some more positive catalysts before dipping in. |
IMO the worst case scenario is for the share price to drop to the £15 - £16 level the day they gave the news on the delay in the body armour. I think there are two reasons for the share price level we have now: 1/ Analysts quickly misjudged the outcome by ignoring it was only 17% of the whole business 2/ The number of shares issued is so tiny (31 million) that any large sell will be followed by a large chunk of the share price taken out. |
Updated Edison note
Valuation: Core progress heavily discounted
The market value hit of c $315m since the announcement outweighs the likely financial impact of a full withdrawal. The FY22e P/E of 15.4x may be challenged by further cash costs but we expect a strong recovery in FY23. We suspect the progressive growth in the dividend which has been maintained as EPS recovery was in sight may be temporarily interrupted as the armour issues are sorted out.
The reaction to the latest product approval delays and the strategic review in the body armour business appears to more than discount the likely financial impact and does not reflect solid progress in the core of the group involved in respirators and helmets. |
Shorts are low and were already there in September. IMO the share price is very sensitive as the number of issued shares is only 31 million. So any amount of buy/sell will spike the share price sharply in either direction. So assume someone buying say 5000 shares, I won't be surprised to see the share price going blue. |
Have you noticed how the idiots have left and the price has settled down.In my mind short attack |
Profit taking cannot hold it down anymore. |
Well I’m in for £7000. I’ll look back in the new year. |
Several funds reducing |
Yes they are loading just in case the bid is THE BEST OPTION ...
MI Chelverton UK Equity Growth Fund acquiring 5.1%. |
Northern Trust snapping up 5.16%? |
IMO the review will put every option on the table and the one that will be probably retained - if it can happen - would be the one that will make the management even more wealthier: A takeover - and they now have, during this review, the opportunity to justify it ... |
M&A activity in the short-medium term is definitely probable. Depends on board of course and how keen they are. |
Will be soon… |
My prediction is that AVON will not go through the full 2022 before being taken over. Meggit and Ultra Electronics were the recent prays. AVON is less sensitive when compared to others as it manufactures protection equipment so could go easily to any bidder - - - |
"Avon’s price-to-earnings ratio is also very low."
As picked up in an earlier post, that rather depends on what figures it is based on. If they are using historic figures, these are distorted by the sale of the Milkrite business. |
Do I buy? So, what is my outlook? Avon Protection managed to reduce its debt between 2020 and 2021. Delays aren’t good but they don’t mean total failure. Avon’s price-to-earnings ratio is also very low. But, based on current revenues it could struggle to pay its 2.54% dividend.
Despite this, I will be adding it to my portfolio.
It’s a risky move, but once Avon improves its products, I think we could see a significant share price resurgence. |
A Quality Stock you say? Never have I seen such a car crash in strategy and execution combined over the past 12/18 months. I wonder what the naked trader will say about this, he'd an open position around 1800p. Expect we'll find he amazingly dumped it just before the crash or it will go down as one of his worst in years! |
Is the chart hook now set ? |
The higher margin, high growth Respiratory and Helmet businesses are likely to be the mainstay going forward here, projected to comprise c. 85% of FY22 revenue. The -51% drop on Friday was the market pricing in a sale/total write down ($30-$40M) of the armour business - the institutions probably already know the decision...however the board should try their utmost to liaise with the US DoD & understand the reasons behind their decision - there must be a solution and a pathway to approval. |
Looks like institution just swapping lol |
Alantra EQMC Asset Management SGIIC, S.A. snapped up 5.6%? |
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