Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[thenry] 20/8/2004 18:56

bis has been the best contrarian indicator for gold.
imho, bloomberg, cnbc, television X.

[jeddah jo] 20/8/2004 17:50

Bis is a guesser who if he is not very careful is going to lose all his money...

[bestbuddy] 20/8/2004 16:27

Bis,
Gold heading north, up nearly $10 in a few hours.
Advocet from 70 to 80p in 2 days.
Never mind, one day you will get it right!
lol

[jeddah jo] 20/8/2004 15:16

News from the front line in Bangkok.

A girl of my acquaintance just got a load of money dropped on her and she is now walking around looking like a mobile gold shop having just spent £500 on the lustrous metal. I attribute part of the recent price rise directly to her.

It is certainly a pervasive attitude among Thais that gold is a store of value that can be readily converted back in to cash if times ever get hard. I wish I knew if the same culture was prevalent in China. If it is, then the first thing on most women's shopping list to be acquired with their new found wealth will be a certain shiny commodity which we are all familiar with.

All the best,
JJ.

[biswell] 20/8/2004 15:10

Take a look at POG in 1988 and shape of chart at the peak...then look at now

See the similarity...I expect a similar outcome

B

[thenry] 20/8/2004 15:02

lol biswell! still short? ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!

[biswell] 20/8/2004 15:00

You are a lucky lot to have a biswell like me.

Here we are take a look at what this POG pusher has shoved out....but don't bother to read his weasel words ....read mine Heheheh...

1.
look at the POG chart from 1990 and note the 3.75 years cycle down and up and down and up...the current cycle started in feb 2004

2.
Look at the HUI chart and see how it also has had a 3.5 ish year drop and then a similar rise, the next drop is in progress

B

[richgit] 20/8/2004 14:26

There are a lot of investors that wish to be in Gold as a hedge against
mayhem.Its naturally sensible for most that they have at least one Gold stock
that is "Actually mining" and not fully priced.
There isn`t a lot of choice after the regrettable,and hopefully rectifiable
problem with OXS.

POG is valued at some 7x`s AVM ,yet compare "production" and "profits".I accept
POG has good resources,however Avocet is on their tail.

[64bit] 20/8/2004 13:44

hey' mr.bis',
todays action is enough for me - for now.. from 12, 20, 36, 44, and 60p..
..can't be too greedy with 77+p :))
fwiw, your predictions for OXS did materialise, although not for the reasons
you were indicating...
...and as for lsc topping out, oh'dear.
good luck to all who remain with avm, i just can't see it going up in straight
line from here.. i'll be back when i can see some level of sustainability..

[hectorp] 20/8/2004 13:11

Doing very well here... maybe some switching in from OXB which has been hit recently.

[bestbuddy] 20/8/2004 13:04

The avm price increase this week does not appear to be directly related to the small increase in gold price over the last two days but, i believe to the confidence long term that gold will at worst hold above $400 but could go much higher. This sustained value in the gold price above $400 is i believe what is driving the price of AVM higher, combined with the potential of new mines / mine extensions coming on-stream.

IMHO we are at the crossroads with 80p, from here all options are open. What the share price does from here over the next few days, possibly weeks will determine the longer term direction.

If it makes a significant break higher from here, then over the next few years a series of pauses and rises possibly as high as £2.40 before the next significant drop.

If it stabalises we could see it 80p remaining as a new range for a while, this would be the worst scenario as eventually this could form a double top which would indicate a significant drop, however i think this is unlikely.

The thrird option is it continues in its short term trend of higher highs and lower lows, with the opportunity to sell at this level and buy back in at around 71-3p. Big risk though if scenario 1 kicks in.
MM's still seem hungry for stock based on quoted buy and sell offers i have received so this is a good sign.

I might be tempted to sell 50% of my stock if 80p is not breached by the end of next week or alternatively just hang on and add on any retrace. I felt AVM should have been above a £1.00 a long time ago so this just seems to be yet another case of a share doing what it was expected to do but not when it was expected to do it, better late than never i suppose.

[cinoib] 20/8/2004 12:55

Bud,
more than the fiscal deffercit for the past 7 years of labour miss rule if all houswifes spent money like that 1/2 baked pillock we'de all be in the workhouse.
I expect that if pog holds it's present level then £1.20 would be a realistic price.

[marathonmike] 20/8/2004 12:16

Going well today - close above 80 and AVM could really fly. My 12 month target is 230.

[budevenwiser] 20/8/2004 12:10

good old argentina borrow loads of dollars with no intention of paying it back and buy gold with it to stash in their vaults i like it their learning
joking aside how many more countries with all that US paper are thinking of doing the same namely japan , china and south korea
how much has our gordon cost us now , was it around 260 he sold at

[richgit] 20/8/2004 10:33

Biswell,
Dont forget that whilst we look forward to Lanut coming on line soon,we
also have the prospect of some very bullish updates on the recent extensive
exploration.

Any other Miner would have made a big song and dance about this...............

"Tajikistan.
Therefore, the mineral resources tabulated below do not include over
10 million ounces of gold categorised under the Russian system as C and P
resources in a number of deposits at ZGC which we have yet to evaluate."

Fairly jaw dropping potential !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[thenry] 20/8/2004 10:26

lol biswell still at it i see. what a loser!!!!!!!

[pecker1] 20/8/2004 10:12

Must confess to being a rank amateur at TA. So this is my non-technical take on why AVM is beginning to attract interest.

The deal to give it 75% of Zeravshan removes an impediment and AVM now has every incentive to bring down its cash costs per production oz as quickly as possible. Every $ reduced adds a $ to gross profit per oz. Add in the rising gold price and there is a positive double whammy. Then add in the recent announcement of exploration success and the possibility of adding near-term new production oz and you give existing holders no reason to sell. Of course a few will for their own reasons but a shortage of sellers should lead to substantial price rises on relatively small volumes.

I look to the TA posters to tell us when profit taking is likely and when it's a good time to top up. Thanks in advance!

[budevenwiser] 20/8/2004 09:54

gollum i dont know why im bothering replying to you but i cant help myself , get the right country that oxs may have been shafted in its the KYRGYZ republic not the UZBEC , you must be getting desperate now fool , keep your eye on newmont and hui that go hand in hand look ready to break out of downtrend and what about the other 5 US interest rate rises you predicted for this year , i think not US is rolling over , dollar back down to 110 against the euro , gold at 350 , oil back down to 22 dollars , as i said months ago to you its all about demand they cant get the oil their quick enough and if they could they cant refine it , the refineries are running at full capacity thats why they are gonna build their first new refinery for 30 years , you is such a guru i am in aw of you

[diogenesj] 20/8/2004 09:48

SB: exactly. Could be a double top, but there is no evidence to assume it is. Much more likely, after the long saucer formation, to move on to new highs.

[bestbuddy] 20/8/2004 09:47

Of course AVM has the potential to fall to 40p, the market for gold might collapse, (unlikely in curent world turmoil and $ uncertainty), their mines might simultaneously blow up or flood, (duh) or they might decide to buy oxs. (lol).
There is a strong possibility based on recent short term trends that their will be a small pull back before the next leg up, however the long term graph shows that 80p (ish) is the key resistance level for the next big hike that would take avm up to around 1.20. key steps have been 10 to 40 back to 20p then 20 to 80 back to 60p, now the next break on that cycle would be up to £2.40p ten back to around £1.80p.
If only shares were that simple but i think it is a lot more credible than a 40p prediction.
Then again if you had sold your shares and were hoping to buy back on a 10% retrace it might be the kind of idea you would want to promote. Perhaps a look back at your previous predictions would reasure most that 40p is a long and distant memory.

[stevie blunder] 20/8/2004 09:39

Biswell, the problem with your charting technique, as I see it, is that you will try to anticipate the signal. A double top is ONLY confirmed on a break below the support, NOT, repeat NOT, on the making of the second top.

I see no top formation.

Don't try to anticipate the charts, follow them.

good luck,


steve

[biswell] 20/8/2004 09:21

AVM has now formed another Twin peak chart......

Deja Vu where I first came in ....

So as I have predicted OXS demise and CER's, it is only fair that I give you an inkling of what is to come for the birdy.

AVM now has a downside potential to go to 40p.

POG has tried to break a major resistance level of $409 a couple of times and failed, if it can't break through soon, then a hard fall is coming.

OXS is in free-fall due to being shafted by the Uzbek government....dealing in foreign parts does carry risks....this could spread to other miners and along with a POG fall will be a double whammy

B