Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[tobie_1] 22/6/2005 16:15

Bis funny how youve stopped posting on gfm now and come back here.

[bionicdog] 22/6/2005 15:26

Biswell
Answer the previous question!
All of your previous predictions on GFM etc are laying in tatters at your feet , yet still you post on. You remind me of a waste disposal unit ... stuck in reverse.

[shirishg] 22/6/2005 15:24

Post removed by ADVFN

[biswell] 22/6/2005 15:23

AVM now starts the drop to below 70p

GOLD to lose $50 means price target for AVM is now 52p

B

[budevenwiser] 22/6/2005 14:12

yep ditto kojak

[chipperfrd] 22/6/2005 13:40

kojak - thanks for all the work.

[kojak78] 22/6/2005 13:38

"The Taror deposit is a resource, which at 3.0 g/t cut-off grade, is currently believed to represent 10.8 million tonnes containing 1.8 million ounces of gold and 90,000 tonnes of copper in a DEVELOPED mine."

The Russians have spent today's equivalent of US$500 mio on Taror and Chore.

[kojak78] 22/6/2005 13:30

forgot the link:

[kojak78] 22/6/2005 13:29

I did some research on Taror/Chore. Nelson did a pre-feasibility study back in 2000. Project costs for Chore and taror would be 52 mio.
8 mio chore infrastructure
6 mio taror infrastructure
35 mio metallurgical plant
3.5 mio tailings facility

I do not think Avocet is able to finance 52 mio without dilution. More interesting would be the development of Taror prior to Chore. That would cost 6+2+20 = 28 mio with scaled down metallurgical plant (only half the size is needed). Because of inflation capital costs for Taror would be ca. 35 mio.

Production would be 70000 oz gold, 160000 oz silver and 6.5 mio lbs copper per annum (assumed recovery rates 82% gold, 60% silver, 75% copper). Cash costs would be US$31/t for 500000t, I guess with current inflation cash costs would be US$40/t.

Reserves
1.05 mio oz gold
3.5 mio oz silver
116 mio lbs copper

Resource
1.85 mio oz gold
5.7 mio silver
186 mio lbs copper

All in all cash costs would be US$20 mio annually, silver would earn US$1.15 mio and copper US$ 10.63 mio.

US$8.22 mio / 0.07 mio oz = US$117

The low cash costs are a result of current high copper prices, Nelson assumed US$0.76/lbs.

Without Taror Avocet produces ca. 280000 ozpa, has 1.9 mio quasi-reserves (Jorc standard only 1.25 or so but that's because of unpredictable nature of Penjom) and cash costs of US$222/oz.
Reopening of Taror would change that for US$40 mio capex:
350000 ozpa production, 3 mio oz reserves (2.3 Jorc standard), average cash costs of US$201.

US$40 mio capex is possible to finance without dilution because Avocet has cash and is generating more cash.

A second step of US$20 mio capex would bring Chore onstream with 63000 ozpa production @ US$229/oz. Reserves probably 0.5 mio oz.

If we assume 5.5 mio overhead + 8 mio exploration + 10 mio annual capex Avocet is now generating 36.5 mio cash each year. That enables step 2, Taror.
With Taror additional 22 mio in cash is generated or 58 mio per annum. That enables step 3, Chore.

In 3 to 4 years we could see Avocet producing 413000 oz @ US$205 with reserves at 3.5 mio oz (2.8 mio jorc standard).
That would yield US$50 mio net earnings. Without any dilution.
p/e 2.9
US$353/oz produced
US$42/reserve oz

US$610 POG means a p/e of 1.46!

A bright future for Avocet indeed.

[kojak78] 21/6/2005 14:55

I am very happy that the price action today closed the gap at 75. Now we must close the gap at 206..

[jk8] 20/6/2005 11:08

AJ - are you suggesting that the buy and sell price were exactly the same? I thought that the general idea was that someone in the middle made a turn on the deals.

[mr ashley james] 20/6/2005 09:33

dk8,

If you bought them did someone sell they to you or did they hatch from thin air?

[shirishg] 20/6/2005 08:15

Post removed by ADVFN

[budevenwiser] 20/6/2005 08:15

andy
john catchpole said that there was no timescale or set amount for each month , some months they would pay off more . probably pay off more when there is a dip in gold price
has avm been tipped in a tip sheet or something lots of little trades

[sandoval] 20/6/2005 01:00

Something odd about this share.I think I am right that the last time gold was this price avm was over £1. They are saying gold is decoupling from the dollar but it looks as if avm is decoupling from the gold price.

[rogerbridge] 19/6/2005 17:22

Although the share price is dissapointing, it does give one the opportunity to top up at a very low price,(on a 6-12 month view.) If the price of gold continues to rise to $500 pr oz, this will fly.

[andy] 18/6/2005 15:30

brad1,

Do you know how much of the hedge has been removed, or their timescale?

[brad1] 18/6/2005 14:55

Full year results due out in about a months time. No debt, decreasing hedge slowly, projected increase of resources. I expect production will be down judging by quartely reports but as long as it is relatively close to last years then this has to be the stock to be in for the next year or so. Happy to hold for the long term.

[jk8] 17/6/2005 13:50

Well I wonder if the pattern of the last 2 years is about to repeat itself. POG looking good, share price lagging.......

[andy] 16/6/2005 23:37

Hectorp,

I was hoping for $450!

No idea what is holding this back, AVM need to promote themselves a bit, I wonder if they have a PR company?

[sandoval] 16/6/2005 21:21

Is AVM still trading ??

[deswalker] 16/6/2005 20:53

Thanks Simon. Yes I have the Evo note. It doesn't quite give me the detail that I'm after though (nor does the Annual Report) so I shall keep digging. Des

[hectorp] 16/6/2005 19:30

GOLD is up nearly $7 an ounce today and will continue for a bit .. if it gets over $338, it shoudl test the $350's.