Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[mister md] 29/11/2019 13:40

If there are any bargains to be had on the FTSE, then surely this is one of them ?

[eurofox] 29/11/2019 12:51

overhang cleared?

[spud] 28/11/2019 16:00

Let's not get too technical chaps.....

spud

[eeza] 28/11/2019 14:40

Direction of share price

Analysts just follow the share price - up or down, but always after the event.

[uppompeii] 28/11/2019 13:06

Hindsight....

[p0pper] 28/11/2019 12:52

I don't know where these "ANAL" ysts get their figures from, not so long ago they were all spouting £5.50 etc and now we are still the same company with still the same outlook / turnover / increased profits and getting more streamlined.

[jordaggy] 28/11/2019 12:44

A down grade from MS to equal weight.

[spud] 28/11/2019 11:23

Moody's Affirms A2 Rating Of Insurer Aviva; Outlook Stable (Alliance News)

Alliance News27 November, 2019

(Alliance News) - Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday affirmed the A2 senior unsecured debt rating of Aviva PLC and the Prime-1 short-term commercial paper rating.

The ratings agency also affirmed the Aa3 insurance financial strength ratings of Aviva's main UK operating entities, including Aviva International Insurance Ltd, Aviva Insurance Ltd and Aviva Life & Pensions UK Ltd.

The outlook on all entities remains stable.

Moody's said the rating action reflects Aviva's very strong franchise in the UK and Canadian insurance market, low product risk and well-diversified business profile, and solid capitalisation, with one of the lowest sensitivities to interest rate risk amongst the European composite insurers.

"However, Aviva's performance has been relatively weak, with bottom line profitability supported by material one-off gains over the last two years, most notably longevity releases. The group's 2018 five year average return on capital was around 5%, comparing weakly with other similarly rated European insurers even when including one-off gains," the ratings agency noted.

Moody's expects Aviva's underlying operating performance to improve but the magnitude will be dependent on the group's ability to reduce costs and grow revenues. Bottom line profitability on the other hand, is predicted to likely remain subdued over the coming 12 to 18 months.

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Aviva will continue to maintain a solid Solvency II ratio above 170% and continue to reduce its leverage.
Moody's also expects a successful execution of Aviva's new strategic plan, with improvements in underlying profitability via cost cutting initiatives and growing revenue in its chosen market segments.

Aviva shares on Wednesday closed at 402.40 pence each in London, up 0.2%.

spud

[dr biotech] 28/11/2019 09:25

Article says

Underwhelming reception falling c4% since the capital markets day..no great changes,though some shifting around may make small improvents, targets not demanding


However, “Aviva reckons that it will generate cash of between £8.5 billion and £9 billion between this year and 2022, more than enough to cover the £1.5 billion debt reduction, a £1.3 billion investment programme and the payment of a progessive dividend over the next four years”

I guess “solid dividend” is the two word summary.

[kiwi2007] 27/11/2019 23:10

In the meantime, the shares, are part of an unloved financial sector, trade for only 6.8 times consensus forecast earnings, for a dividend yield of a very high 8 per cent. For those prepared to wait, this is worth the gamble, if only for the payout along the way.
ADVICE Buy
WHY A recovery play that at last has a strategy to build on, and the shares are extremely cheap

hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/aviva-s-policy-can-deliver-profits-rkntxq7h2

[eurofox] 27/11/2019 12:05

talking their book

[spud] 27/11/2019 11:23

FWIW:


Citi downgrades Aviva to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’ after cutting target price by 10%

The US bank’s target price was reduced to 414p from 460p primarily driven by around a 1% increase in cost of capital for those of its businesses it values on a DCF basis

Citi put a dent in Aviva PLC (LON:AV.) shares on Tuesday after downgrading its rating for the FTSE 100-listed insurer to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’ after cutting its target price by 10%.

In lunchtime trading, Aviva shares were 0.2% lower at 402.30p, with the US bank’s target price reduced to 414p from 460p primarily driven by around a 1% increase in cost of capital for those of its businesses it values on a discounted cashflow (DCF) basis - UK Life, UK GI, Canada and Asia.

In a note to clients, Citi’s analysts said: “This reflects our view that the market’s focus is increasingly focusing on cash and capital returns vs. IFRS earnings. We also lower our assumed PEs for France and Italy by 0.5x as the higher proportion of traditional reserves in these countries leaves them most exposed to the low interest rate environment.”

They have also updated their earnings forecasts for the insurer to reflect new management guidance/targets from the recent Capital Markets Day, with 2019 operating earnings per share estimates decreased by around 2%, and 2020 and 2021 operating EPS estimates reduced by around 4%.

The analysts pointed out: “Understanding value creation at insurance companies continues to evolve as cash and capital generation disclosures shift the balance away from IFRS earnings.

“Aviva’s pivot to these metrics reassures on the dividend but highlights greater upside at peers that also have more diversified businesses with stronger competitive positioning.”

They concluded: “We downgrade our recommendation to Neutral with execution against plan also likely to take some time.”

“The shares trade on 1.2x S2 equity for an aspirational 12% ROE which looks full versus European peers given a) work still to do, b) higher leverage, c) less earnings diversification and d) Brexit risks,” the analysts added

spud

[pj fozzie] 27/11/2019 10:51

I've bought in today based on the Tempus column - a very compelling case I felt. Tucked away in the ISA for long term income.

Cheers,
PJ

[whatsup32] 27/11/2019 10:19

Buy recommendation states ‘ the shares are extremely cheap’ and ‘at last a strategy to build on’ also ‘ a recovery play’

[alan@bj] 27/11/2019 09:03

Recommended as a BUY in today's Tempus column in The Times.

[spud] 26/11/2019 19:40

Taken from IMB BB:Brokers have a habit of continuously winding their price targets back until eventually they align with the prevailing price. I think it?s called saving face whilst pocketing obscene wads of cash...spud

[whatsup32] 26/11/2019 19:40

SP has hardly moved today indicating nobody took them seriously and rightly so

[imagining] 26/11/2019 19:12

Citigroup downgraded Aviva today from buy to neutral. The new TP has been slashed to a mere 414p. Just 15 months ago (Aug '18), their TP was 603. What on Earth has happened,to Aviva,for them to justify such a large discrepancy in their Target prices? Such anomalies make me question the integrity and professionalism of Brokers recommendations. Such is the randomness of the various Brokers TP's,I think I may as well ask my teenage daughter what she reckons the 12 month TP ought to be! LOL

[spud] 26/11/2019 11:41

Aviva rolls out specialised renewable energy insurance
by Terry Gangcuangco 26 Nov 2019


Aviva, the first global insurer to become carbon-neutral in 2006, has introduced a new insurance package especially designed for global renewable energy brokers and their commercial clients.

Called “Aviva Renewable Energy,” the product spans coverage for marine project cargo, construction and operational, third-party liability, and terrorism.

The insurer said the offering signals Aviva’s recognition of the specific needs of the growing market as well as the important role played by renewable energy in the fight against climate change.

“At the start of 2019, Aviva UK exited the standalone operational fossil fuel power market as part of its commitment to help tackle climate change,” noted commercial lines managing director Patrick Tiernan.

“We are now taking another important step in our commitment by launching a specialist renewable energy proposition providing insurance solutions for the full lifecycle of renewable energy risks worldwide.”

Tiernan added: “This is a small step in our sustainability journey as a commercial insurer. We are already working with our largest brokers and clients to ensure we can be their partner of choice as the UK economy prepares for carbon neutrality in 2050.”

Meanwhile Aviva has been establishing a specialist underwriting team comprising the likes of deputy chief underwriting officer & head of speciality Matthew Gordon, head of renewable energy & engineering Victoria Kent, and renewable energy underwriting manager Nick Evans.

spud

[whatsup32] 25/11/2019 12:16

I may not think much of the CEO but I do like the company hence my purchase of some more at 4.04 last week . Unfortunately my main purchase was around 470 last year. Yuck.

[dr biotech] 25/11/2019 11:59

True, but under Moss and (perhaps less so) Wilson we seem to have undergone lots of organisational changes with the end result being that AV is still seen as a lumbering giant.

I don’t really see how these changes are going to make a lot of difference. AV was my largest holding for some years, now it’s my 4th.