Aviva 8 3/8% Pf Discussion Threads

[nerja] 27/8/2015 12:24

Its the same with gaca and gacb, cant figure it myself.

[yf23_1] 27/8/2015 12:17

Yes, I'm just miffed I bought these at 135p and yet the AV.A have hardly moved.

[nerja] 27/8/2015 11:41

yf23_1
Yep uncanny bought some yesterday for that reason, also bought some LLPC at near 7% yield, both worth a punt at the levels they are at now imo. When interest rates were at 6% in 2006 AV.b was trading at 140 to 150ish.
The prefs could overshoot to the downside but with interest rate rises limited to the upside unless the issuers are thought to be going bust for me there is value with any of these above 6.5%

[yf23_1] 27/8/2015 10:44

This is ridiculous, there is now a 7p difference between the .A and .B prefs, yet the AV.B go ex on 3rd Sep 3 months ahead of the AV.A which is worth another 2p.

[skyship] 14/7/2015 15:32

Having had such a dramatically good H1'15, with all rising c15%, those rises have been totally eroded in the space of a month. Yields now back up to c6.5%:

# AV.A 8.75% - 132.0p-134.5p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.51%
# AV.B 8.375% - 130.0p-131.4p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.37%
# GACA 8.875% - 132.0p-133.5p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.65%
# GACB 7.875% - 120.0p-122.6p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.42%

As so often in the past - GACA the best value.

[skyship] 28/6/2015 16:49

Having flirted with yields down at c5.6%, now all the Aviva perpetual prefs have suddenly sold off to yields c6.1%:

# AV.A 8.75% - 138.0p-142.0 – Yld on the offer share price = 6.16%
# AV.B 8.375% - 134.0-138.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.07%
# GACA 8.875% - 140.0-144.0 – Yld on the offer share price = 6.16%
# GACB 7.875% - 125.0p-129.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.10%

After the incessant selling on Friday, all these prefs are likely to have a true offer 1.0p lower than those shown above.

[jonwig] 10/2/2015 17:08

A000 - hindsight is a wonderful thing!

It's the *expectation* of rises that drives the share price. 3 years ago, it was believed that inflation was the inevitable result of QE and that interest rate rises were imminent.

Recently, the belief is that the first rise will happen later than we thought - maybe 2016 and then only gradual. Currently it's getting you nearly 6% net of brt ... do you expect anything like that on the high street?

My strategy with these prefs is to have a rolling stop-loss (say 10%), which protects my capital gains. And in every case watch the ords for possible company-specific problems.

[a0002577] 10/2/2015 16:57

But there's the rub - looking at the chart above they were 35 pence less in 2013 - and interest rates were the same. All we can say is that any interest rate rise is closer than it was in 2013.

[kirkie001] 10/2/2015 15:54

No; you're not necessarily stupid - but in order to be informed, you would need to have a view on long-term interest rates. Do you think that long-term interest rates are likely to rise by say 10% in the near term?

If so, then your trade might be worthwhile. If not, then it might not be.

[a0002577] 10/2/2015 15:40

I am contemplating selling these and moving into cash to await a fall. Am I stupid?

[yf23_1] 20/1/2015 14:18

How about an update SKY ?
Nice recent run on realisation of quality and interest rates due to reman low longer.

[skyship] 08/6/2014 05:48

BT - Pleasure. Incidentally, a nicely timed nibble those back at 133p. Now 138.5p BID - quite a price acceleration over recent weeks.

[skyship] 07/6/2014 12:56

Current status of the 4 AVIVA prefs – all cumulative but irredeemable.

# AV.A 8.75% - 138.5p-141.0XD – Yld on the offer share price = 6.20%
# AV.B 8.375% - 135.5p-137.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.11%
# GACA 8.875% - 133.5p-135.75pXD – Yld on the offer share price = 6.54%
# GACB 7.875% - 124.0p-126.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.25%

[badtime] 14/5/2014 10:17

nibbled on a few last week at 133

[skyship] 31/12/2013 17:14

AOOO2577 - Sorry, hadn't seen yr post of 2months ago! They're certainly looking a sell at this level.

[skyship] 31/12/2013 17:12

Current status of the 4 AVIVA prefs – all cumulative but irredeemable.

# AV.A 8.75% - 128.9p-129.75pXD – Yld on the offer share price = 6.74%
# AV.B 8.375% - 126.75p-128.95p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.49%
# GACA 8.875% - 124.8p-126.25pXD – Yld on the offer share price = 7.03%
# GACB 7.875% - 112.25p-114.25p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.89%

NOTES:

# The last time I posted on the Aviva Prefs was back in Jun'13. The prices then had pulled back to relatively attractive levels. Since then the sps have moved pretty much in tandem and all now look rather over-priced IMO – especially AV.B. Currently GACA & GACB offer the BEST VALUE.

# AV.A & GACA were the most recent to go XD – 8th November – paydate: 1st Jan'14.

For alternative yield plays you might consider:

# Real Estate Credit Investments 8% pref (RECP) – 105.0p-105.75p. Current Yield = 7.57%; Gross Redemption Yield = 6.50% (Redemption @ par in Sept'17). NO with-holding tax, no stamp duty on purchase and a quarterly 2% dividend. Maturity in 2017 provides protection against interest rate rises – NOT the case with all of the above and most other preference shares.

# Acencia Debt Strategies (ACD) – 100.25p-100.75p. A liquidating hedge fund. Current NAV = 109.31p. Liquidation target in Q1'15 likely to be c115p/117p. If 115p, the GRY = 10.77%pa; add in the 3.63% current yield and the total GRY = 14.4%pa. Plenty of information on the ACD thread:



# Balfour Beatty 10.75% convertible redeemable prefs (BBYB) – 116.0p-116.75p. Current Yield = 9.21%; Gross Redemption Yield = 6.85% (Redemption @ par on 1st Jul'20). There is a chance of convertible upside if the Ords compound @ c8.0%pa over the next 7 years.

[a0002577] 22/10/2013 07:18

Good morning, Skyship

Do you, like me, think these are getting towards the over-priced range yet?

[skyship] 08/6/2013 14:10

Current status of the 4 AVIVA prefs – all cumulative but irredeemable.

# AV.A 8.75% - 114.25p-116.75p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.49%
# AV.B 8.375% - 112.5p-115.5p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.25%
# GACA 8.875% - 117.0p-119.5p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.43%
# GACB 7.875% - 111.0p-113.25p – Yld on the offer share price = 6.95%

NOTES:

# IMO all the Aviva prefs became over-priced recently; but after a very rapid near 10% sell-off, they are now back into the realms of reality. Strangely GACB are still over-priced versus its peers & AV.A, which in the past has consistently been the most expensive of the four, is currently the BEST VALUE.

# AV.A & GACA were the most recent to go XD – 8th May – paydate: 1st Jul'13.

For alternative yield plays you might consider:

# Real Estate Credit Investments 8% pref (RECP) – 105.5p-106.5pXD. Current Yield = 7.51%; Gross Redemption Yield = 6.54% (Redemption @ par in Sept'17). NO with-holding tax, no stamp duty on purchase and a quarterly 2% dividend. Maturity in 2017 provides protection against interest rate rises – NOT the case with all of the above and most other preference shares.

# Acencia Debt Strategies (ACD) – 95.75p-96.5p. A liquidating hedge fund. Current NAV = 106.3p. Liquidation target in Q1'15 likely to be c115p/117p. At 115p the GRY = 10.2%pa; add in the 3.8% current yield and the total GRY = 14%pa. Plenty of information on the ACD thread:

[a0002577] 07/6/2013 20:54

Not much happening on this thread at the moment - but a question . Why the sharp fall in the past few days? Other insurers prefs are on the slide as well.

I took the opportunity to sell quite a few recently in the hope that they would fall and I could buy back more with the proceeds

Would welcome any viewa as to when to buy back.

[skyship] 04/11/2012 11:12

Current status of the 4 AVIVA prefs – all cumulative but irredeemable.

# AV.A 8.75% - 115.5p-116.75p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.49%
# AV.B 8.375% - 111.5p-113.5p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.38%
# GACA 8.875% - 117.5p-120.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.40%
# GACB 7.875% - 102.5p-104.5p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.54%

NOTES:

# GACA has caught up through buying ahead of the 7th November XD date. All 4 yields now in line, but GACB now the best value:– highest yield, closest to par and 3months accrued dividend.

# AV.A & GACA are the next to go XD – 7th Nov. – paydate: 1st Jan'13.

Bearing in mind the lack of a redemption date - none of these are now overly cheap. If you don't hold Real Estate Credit Investments 8% pref (RECP), buy a few of those @ 100p for the 8.0% yield with NO with-holding tax, no stamp duty on purchase and a quarterly 2% dividend. Also dated for redemption at par in Sept'17, so underwritten against interest rate rises – NOT the case with all of the above and most other preference shares!

[skyship] 04/10/2012 12:22

Current status of the 4 AVIVA prefs – all cumulative but irredeemable.

# AV.A 8.75% - 112.5p-115.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.61%
# AV.B 8.375% - 110.0p-112.5p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.44%
# GACA 8.875% - 110.0p-113.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.85%
# GACB 7.875% - 101.0-104.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.57%

NOTES:

# Once again GACA is the best value of the 4 prefs. The other three are all pretty well in line.

# AV.A & GACA are the next to go XD again – early Nov. – paydate: 1st Jan'13.

# Bearing in mind the 10% with-holding tax - none of these now look cheap. If you don't hold RECP, buy a few of those for the 8.16% yield with NO with-holding tax, no stamp duty on purchase and a quarterly 2% dividend. Also dated for redemption at par in Sept'17, so underwritten against interest rate rises and a couple of points capital gain thrown in. So at 98p the GRY = 8.41%

[skyship] 18/6/2012 12:03

Current status of the 4 AVIVA prefs – all cumulative but irredeemable.

# AV.A 8.75% - 105.0p-106.2p – Yld on the offer share price = 8.24%
# AV.B 8.375% - 102.0p-103.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 8.13%
# GACA 8.875% - 100.0p-104.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 8.53%
# GACB 7.875% - 95.5p-100.0p – Yld on the offer share price = 7.87%

NOTES:

Once again GACA is the best value of the 4 prefs. The other three are all pretty well in line.

AV.B & GACB are the next to go XD again – on 1st Aug'12 – paydate: 31st Sept'12.

[yf23_1] 05/4/2012 00:53

Got mine on the 3rd.

[jonwig] 02/4/2012 13:19

Yes, it was!