Next week 19th November is the AGM date as I am still intending to go.
Should anyone have any questions to put I will be happy to put them to the Board. |
Is it today or tomorrow. Cant find the date |
I am thinking of going to the AGM this time, anyone else attending! |
Downing upped investment to over 5 percent. Not that you’d notice from the share price in this direst market in the world. At the turn of the century the FTSE stood just shy of 7000 while the Dow was hovering around 12000. The ftse has taken great strides to add another 1000 points over quarter of a century while the Dow has smashed another 30,000 points out of the park |
Fantastic news about aero space industry award. No market reaction tells shows the picture of investing in the Uk. |
More encouraging news wrt Avingtrans' unique 3D X-ray technology.
All the commentary and analysis here |
Cheers Paul. Its very interesting if a little irritating. I suppose it had to be Americanised, which is fair I suppose as much of their business and future lies in America. I can imagine this turning into one of those annoying thirty minute videos where they repeat everything 100 times before telling you who the company are. Honestly I think you do a much better job interviewing the Steves. |
For those interested investors, please find in the below download link an AI generated podcast created by Google's new NotebookLM service wrt Avingtrans' recent results.
Again worth a listen |
Not much change from summer update. Slightly ahead of upgraded expectations. Well managed investment in new acquisitions. Tight control on costs keeping a lid on debt and expenditure. Plenty to look forward to from this well run ship with such a broad range of businesses. No idea how the market will react, not that I am particularly bothered because I think they do a remarkable job. No news as yet on divestments, (possibly 12-18 months away) other than they are always alert to both acquisitions and sale and in a strong position to act accordingly. Should be plenty of excitement to come from the medical side in the coming year which should help reach inflexion point to be firing growth and profit from all sections. |
Quick CEO/CFO interview ( investor note ( wrt Avingtrans’ strong FY24 results & upgraded outlook. |
Historically the share price has tended to kick on primarily on divestments,the timing of which are unfortunately impossible to accurately predict.
Booths does seem ready to go? |
As I understand it, they have some land ‘with potential permanently on sale,but with a few ‘difficulties.’ They have a couple of businesses ready to move on. So a lot of their income comes from trading assets, which could materialise at any time. I think Harwoods last summer of parts was conservatively £5 a share for the business and a speculative £5 a share for the medical side. Over a two year investment there is a clear potential to at least double up here, while the down side is limited |
Excellent answer - thank you.
>>Saying that group EPS and therefore PE is a pretty rubbish way to value AVG as they always have companies in a turnaround status>>
Yes, understood - what I didn't realise on an initial look was that investment in medical imaging was going to be quite so significant.
Will continue digging. |
zho,
The reduction in FY25 profitability relates to the heavy investment required in the medical imaging division as they prepare for volume production at both Adaptix and Magnetica.
So whilst the underlying engineering businesses continue to be profitable the MI business will be loss making in FY25 suppressing the EPS.
Saying that group EPS and therefore PE is a pretty rubbish way to value AVG as they always have companies in a turnaround status. I think it should be valued on a sum of parts basis. |
Has anyone got access to earnings estimates?
AVG made 23.4p in FY23 and 11.7p in H1 24, so I was puzzled by Paul Hill's tweet after the 19/6/ TU – unless his 6p is a typo and he meant 26p?
“Cavendish have ... FY25 adjusted EBITDA and EPS of £14.0m & 6p respectively on revenues of £161m.” |
Thanks earwacks, very interesting. |
I would be interested to read what Paul Scott has to say, could someone please supply a link or is it "restricted"
Thanks |
Booths produces the doors earwacks and has been spun out of Stainless Metal Craft (which produces the 3m3 nuclear waste containers) - presumably in preparation for an eventual sale. It's standalone accounts are available at Companies House. |
Not sure where I got the idea Paul Hill was invested here. He comments here as Brummy, so he usually is invested in stock he comments on. Sellafield waste contract for 900 million up for bidders next year which they will certainly be part of. Metal Craft maybe sold 15-20 million (bomb blast doors) soon. Plenty of things churning along nicely. Harwood suggest sum of parts currently underwritten at £5 per share with no value on Adaptix or Magnetica, low ball park 50 million for the pair by Chris Mills. So potentially 50% on top. |
As far as i'm aware Paul Hill isn't invested in AVG, just that they are a Vox Markets client so he interviews the two Steve's.
I think PE is not a great way to value AVG as it's not a steady state business. There are always loss making subsidiaries that are in turnaround or in the case of the medical imaging businesses pre-revenue or almost pre-revenue. Sum of parts is probably the way to go.
Historically the share price has moved up in steps on the sale of businesses. Booths may be the next business sold, now nicely profitable with a large orderbook in regulated markets. The large HS2 order is yet to enter production. Probably worth circa £25m which would be a great return for something bought from the administrators for peanuts. |
 It is a very positive graph. Paul Hill on Vox market said ‘if only all shares were like this’. On the other hand Paul Scott is much less sanguine saying it was much more risky than he originally thought and gave fair reasons to be cautious. It is really the nature of AIM stock that they are more adventurous and therefore riskier. I think perhaps Paul Hill has been closer to management and invested and perhaps Paul Scott hasn’t and isn’t and is perhaps a little more of an observer. The market certainly agrees with Scott’s caution at the moment, but then it seems to be in cautious mode again. I know the old adage is good ideas don’t always make good businesses but management have proved extremely canny in the past on most occasions. Adaptix has been very enthusiastically received so far. So I agree however good it is we can’t be sure the tills will be permanently ringing. They have an agreement with a top distributor in USA and will appeal to different markets. It is fair to say the sum of parts are pretty hard to value , but again diversified activity is part of its strength and though the new ventures are perhaps slightly outside their normal targets, that is what makes this an exciting and very successful group. Sounds like I’m trying to convince myself! I am a bit but feeling more favourable about it after this update which we will hear much more about September 25th I think. Might flatline for a while longer and I am buying into the weakness. To me the new businesses have the potential to be transformational once again. Backing good decisive management has proved to be a winner for me in Aim. |
I just checked a long term chart and it looks like they've gone up from around 50p in 2010 to 400p in an almost straight line so I guess your point is very fair. I always thought they got Booths for a bargain price and Hayward Tyler was supposed to be a good business. By the way is the surplus land HTs old Luton site? It might need a lot of cleaning up if so. |
Depends how you rate them. If they are a plod along engineering company they would be expensive,This money states the PE at todays price is 17.5. For a rapid growth company that wheels and deals and has moved into hi tech medical equipment it looks pretty cheap. A lot depends on the success of Adaptix and Magnetica, the sale of other companies and a piece of land they want to sell which apparently is complicated for some reason. The nuclear waste business looks to have plenty of legs still. No doubt more to come in results. Paul Hill and Chris Mills of Harwood are hoping to double up from here. Obviously they are invested. Their trick is to buy financially distressed companies, sort them out and sell them on. I expect you know that. Thats why I would expect a much higher rating |
I've followed these for a long time and they seem to do a reasonable job, but where exactly do you all expect exceptional shareholder returns to come from? The shares already look very pricey to me. |
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