Thanks earwacks, very interesting. |
I would be interested to read what Paul Scott has to say, could someone please supply a link or is it "restricted"
Thanks |
Booths produces the doors earwacks and has been spun out of Stainless Metal Craft (which produces the 3m3 nuclear waste containers) - presumably in preparation for an eventual sale. It's standalone accounts are available at Companies House. |
Not sure where I got the idea Paul Hill was invested here. He comments here as Brummy, so he usually is invested in stock he comments on. Sellafield waste contract for 900 million up for bidders next year which they will certainly be part of. Metal Craft maybe sold 15-20 million (bomb blast doors) soon. Plenty of things churning along nicely. Harwood suggest sum of parts currently underwritten at £5 per share with no value on Adaptix or Magnetica, low ball park 50 million for the pair by Chris Mills. So potentially 50% on top. |
As far as i'm aware Paul Hill isn't invested in AVG, just that they are a Vox Markets client so he interviews the two Steve's.
I think PE is not a great way to value AVG as it's not a steady state business. There are always loss making subsidiaries that are in turnaround or in the case of the medical imaging businesses pre-revenue or almost pre-revenue. Sum of parts is probably the way to go.
Historically the share price has moved up in steps on the sale of businesses. Booths may be the next business sold, now nicely profitable with a large orderbook in regulated markets. The large HS2 order is yet to enter production. Probably worth circa £25m which would be a great return for something bought from the administrators for peanuts. |
 It is a very positive graph. Paul Hill on Vox market said ‘if only all shares were like this’. On the other hand Paul Scott is much less sanguine saying it was much more risky than he originally thought and gave fair reasons to be cautious. It is really the nature of AIM stock that they are more adventurous and therefore riskier. I think perhaps Paul Hill has been closer to management and invested and perhaps Paul Scott hasn’t and isn’t and is perhaps a little more of an observer. The market certainly agrees with Scott’s caution at the moment, but then it seems to be in cautious mode again. I know the old adage is good ideas don’t always make good businesses but management have proved extremely canny in the past on most occasions. Adaptix has been very enthusiastically received so far. So I agree however good it is we can’t be sure the tills will be permanently ringing. They have an agreement with a top distributor in USA and will appeal to different markets. It is fair to say the sum of parts are pretty hard to value , but again diversified activity is part of its strength and though the new ventures are perhaps slightly outside their normal targets, that is what makes this an exciting and very successful group. Sounds like I’m trying to convince myself! I am a bit but feeling more favourable about it after this update which we will hear much more about September 25th I think. Might flatline for a while longer and I am buying into the weakness. To me the new businesses have the potential to be transformational once again. Backing good decisive management has proved to be a winner for me in Aim. |
I just checked a long term chart and it looks like they've gone up from around 50p in 2010 to 400p in an almost straight line so I guess your point is very fair. I always thought they got Booths for a bargain price and Hayward Tyler was supposed to be a good business. By the way is the surplus land HTs old Luton site? It might need a lot of cleaning up if so. |
Depends how you rate them. If they are a plod along engineering company they would be expensive,This money states the PE at todays price is 17.5. For a rapid growth company that wheels and deals and has moved into hi tech medical equipment it looks pretty cheap. A lot depends on the success of Adaptix and Magnetica, the sale of other companies and a piece of land they want to sell which apparently is complicated for some reason. The nuclear waste business looks to have plenty of legs still. No doubt more to come in results. Paul Hill and Chris Mills of Harwood are hoping to double up from here. Obviously they are invested. Their trick is to buy financially distressed companies, sort them out and sell them on. I expect you know that. Thats why I would expect a much higher rating |
I've followed these for a long time and they seem to do a reasonable job, but where exactly do you all expect exceptional shareholder returns to come from? The shares already look very pricey to me. |
The general consensus is Avg is worth around £4.40 as it is, probably more with this ahead of expectations update and nothing priced in for Adaptix or Magnetica. There is investment required in the launch of these products. They suggested a couple of companies they bought to turn around are ready for sale and there is a very valuable plot of land they have been trying to dispose of. I suppose there is a question of how soon they can release some cash to invest in the medical products. Generally though this is a company with a phenomenal track record of proven success |
Not really. The ground breaking product launches have been delayed and although I'm hopeful they will be in high demand, that is yet to be proven. The market is simply being cautious. |
Astonishing market reaction to ahead of expectations in all areas and two ground breaking product launches |
Cavendish reiterates £4.95 pt. But acknowledges the success of medical equipment launches could drive value substantially higher. Record order book. Wasnt expecting update till next month. Singer stick with £5.10 valuation. Yet the market is unimpressed. Are they worried about a raise to launch Magnetica and Adaptix? Big deal they will make millions. Totally nuts the Sp |
More positive news from specialist engineering Avingtrans today.
All the commentary here |
Broadly a cracking update. Yes some delays and some costs deferred, but feels as though the businesses have good growth prospects. |
US Veterinary distributor appointed for Adaptix |
1c. Think you are forgetting the veterinary market which is massive not to mention possible industrial applications. Seems to be stirring again |
MRI without the need for helium would be hugely cost saving in the longer term. It's expensive to buy and store, and increasingly difficult to source. |
Yes they were that good. The acquisitions cost them 13 million last year. Someone on Stockopedia said about Adaptix not being able to attract any other offers. Firstly Avg already had 10 percent of the business and secondly they invited them to find a better offer. This is what Avg are renowned for, taking over businesses that have potential but cash strapped, building the business up to profitability and selling it on. It doesn’t happen over night. The nuclear waste business is booming and still no competitors in a sector they can barely service on their own . The cancelled rail works has not affected them at all and think there will be additional work there. The applications and potential for Adaptix and Magnetica are not even fully realised yet, way beyond just medical. I agree health authorities are under pressure, but actually these products could well help reduce workloads as time saving potential is huge. On the veterinary side , there will be no such problem as pet spend ever increases. Their markets are mostly in areas that are not cyclical, they are essential. Of course their is capital required in these projects. That is the mainstay of their business. Buy companies cheap, invest and sell |
usual problem with new medtech is slow adoption by bureaucratic health systems constrained by budgets even should the technology represent an obvious advance. |
Really? Were they that good? For all the big rise in revenue, operating profit margins are low and cash flow poor. Medical division set to be a drain on cash for the next two years plus. Good long-term management track record on disposals, but jury is out on Adaptix and Magnetica. |
Absolutely agree, and even better to come as the new medical technology comes on stream and adds to the bottom line. |
Fantastic update as expected, actually slightly better in many areas. Obviously already invested here, but now I know where to stick any spare cash as it becomes available. Really impressive uk business |
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