Aveva Share Discussion Threads

[grigor] 16/11/2009 14:22

Gone past £10

[thearcticfox] 16/11/2009 13:56

I can't either. Just posted it on here hoping someone else could. Sorry.

[liyangnano] 16/11/2009 13:51

to thearcticfox;

can;t read that article, can you copy here? thanks

[thearcticfox] 16/11/2009 13:10

Hi, welcome to the quietest thread on ADVFN.

[chector177] 16/11/2009 09:57

Thought I'd say hello after recent buying into Aveva, looks nicely undervalued at current share price Onwards and upwards

[thearcticfox] 16/11/2009 09:50

At last, we're on the move!

[electronica] 13/11/2009 12:23

A great set of results in the current world market & the traders just yawn.

At least Golden Sacks are calling AVV correctly today ............

"Goldman Sachs Raises Aveva Target Price
1157 GMT [Dow Jones] Goldman Sachs raises Aveva (AVV.LN) target price to 1450p from 1400p. Says "we believe the stock should rerate as the market's focus shifts from resiliency to its significant growth potential." Expects incrementally positive newsflow from Aveva's key end markets. The brokerage says that with recurring revenues proving resilient, risks are skewed to the upside from a better performance in AVEVA NET, oil & gas and nuclear. Maintains buy rating on the stock. Shares -0.4% at 963p."

The current stupid price is unsustainable. If the market refuses to rerate AVV then it becomes a natural takeover or MBA candidate. The cash flow could easily sustain an £950m offer - that supports GS's 1450p target.

[sonder] 16/10/2009 09:13

This is what Investec said today:

H109 trading update
AVEVA has released a trading statement that we believe will catalyse
consensus to start moving upwards. Our forecasts are already c20% ahead of
consensus, having taken a view that rentals will be more stable than expected.
This statement implies in our view that rentals are still growing quite strongly,
which we believe supports our high-end forecasts. We move our TP up to
1100p which represents a 16x cash adjusted cal 2010E PER, and maintain Buy

Year end: 31 March 2009 2010E 2011E
Turnover (£m) 164.0 142.9 143.8
PBT (normalised) 61.8 48.4 52.0
EPS (norm) - FD (p) 65.8 52.0 55.9
DPS (p) 9.36 10.30 11.33
PE (normalised) (x) 14.8 18.7 17.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 10.8 10.1
FCF yield (%) 6.2 4.6 5.7
Dividend yield (%) 1.0 1.1 1.2

Trading
Current trading is ahead of management expectations with Oil and Gas
particularly strong. Power appears to be tracking to plan. As we expected, there has been a sharp fall off in Marine new business. Management term the trading performance as 'robust', but do caveat this by being cautious with regards to the outlook.

Rentals
We see this area as the key swing factor in forecasts. We believe that
rentals should be growing quite strongly for trading to be ahead of expectations.This follows the trend during Q1 FY10. Before we upgraded our forecasts in September (unchanged today), we were forecasting a -8% decline in FY10E rentals, which we think was broadly inline with consensus. We are now
expecting a -2% decline. Even to reach our -2% decline, this would imply, in our view, a H2 FY10E fall of - c10% in rentals considering the growth in H1. This looks very pessimistic and would represent a very sharp change in momentum, hence we expect consensus to start moving up today. We see this factor as offsetting additional weakness in licence fees.

Investment view
The stock has run up ahead of the trading statement. However on a cash-adjusted cal. 2010 PER of 14.3x on our forecasts, we still see value in the shares. If consensus does move up throughout the year, we would expect this to support the stock. We increase our TP to 1100p (from 1000p) based on a 16x cash-adjusted cal.2010 PER, but accept the outlook for medium term growth (as opposed to FY10E forecasts) will likely need to become clearer to drive the stock materially beyond these levels.

[sharw] 15/10/2009 15:05

It was 16th Oct. last year - they may have just repeated that although the company may stick to the same date. It was 4/10 the previous year.

[robson1974] 15/10/2009 14:02

Mirabaud saying Trading Update tomorrow

[thearcticfox] 15/10/2009 11:01

Some old news from the 5th Oct:-

[bluebelle] 14/10/2009 15:38

Sorry : I hope all of this noise hasn't disturbed you ! Quality stock IMHO with, I hope, much further to go.

[thearcticfox] 14/10/2009 15:32

Well at least there are three of us... I was beginning to think I was the only person using this BB.

[bluebelle] 14/10/2009 14:26

Silence doesn't bother me : I often think there's an inverse correlation between bulletin board activity and shareholder returns !!!

[electronica] 14/10/2009 14:25

Maybe not so quiet very soon.

Are we not due for a Trading Statement soon - last year there was H1 RNS on 16th October. Also Interims due on 20th November.

Both events should point this lot to the 1250p share price that they should command.

[thearcticfox] 14/10/2009 13:22

Always quiet on here, you'll get used to it.

[bluebelle] 14/10/2009 13:20

Update !!!

Quiet on here given what's been happening to the price recently

[bluebelle] 08/10/2009 12:27

Quiet on here given what's been happening to the price recently

[thearcticfox] 03/8/2009 12:35

Some of this weeks news not previously posted:-

[cupra kid] 09/7/2009 18:04

Aveva

693p -14½p

Questor says HOLD

Aveva shares were recommended at 616½p in January. Questor argued that although there was likely to be some softening in its markets, this was already accounted for in the share price.

However, Questor's hopes were dashed and the group issued a profit warning. The stance since then has been hold – and that is maintained after the group's latest trading update.

Despite the warning, the shares are still about 10pc ahead of their initial recommendation price – and the company confirmed yesterday that it was on track to meet full-year expectations. Another strong point in the company's favour is that it still has a strong balance sheet, with net cash of more than £100m.

The company, which designs engineering software for the power, oil and gas and marine industries, said that there had been some softening of its marine operations, but this was expected. Questor noted that this would be the case when the initial buy recommendation was made.

However, the company said that shipyards' existing order books for new vessels had remained relatively solid, supporting recurring revenue from existing licences.

The plant business, where the majority of revenues are driven by oil & gas and power projects, has been more stable.

There was also good news on the company's restructuring, which it said was largely complete. This will allow the group to focus on its lifecycle management product AVEVA NET, which helps management of complex process plants. With capital expenditure budgets likely to be constrained for some time, companies will be seeking to get the best out of existing assets – and this is an opportunity for the group.

The shares are trading on a current-year earnings multiple of 15.3 times, falling to 14.7 next year and the yield is just 1.4pc. Until there is an improvement in the company's underlying markets, the shares are unlikely to be re-rated higher, but the business is solid and the company has already made significant investments in its products, so it can cut back on development expenditure.

[thearcticfox] 09/7/2009 08:31

Hmmmm...

Quiet here...

Personally don't see the reason for the drop today - I thought the difficult conditions were more than priced into this, but what do I know... If anything I thought the interim statement sounded as good as could be expected, if not better.

Oh well... Ho hum...

[knockers2] 02/6/2009 10:32

loads of follow through on aveva this morning