Avation Share Discussion Threads

[carcosa] 11/1/2016 09:26

Having just see the video on Avation website in which a F100 registration is visible and then searching for it on the internet, at least one F100 is with Skywest Airlines. So I may be wrong about the other F100's being on lease to mining companies... Sorry

[perfect timing] 11/1/2016 09:21

carcosa thanks for taking the time to respond.
It is interesting that Avation are in for four and possibly five A321 aircraft now stating "Avation is seeking to arrange European export credit agency supported finance for the purchase of these aircraft". I assume we will hear if that s successful in due course.
I asked about the F100's only because they are the oddballs in an orderly portfolio. I assume that they make commercial sense or they would not entertain these out of production aircraft but may seek to replace with say the A318.
The four available Airbus aircraft are listed for sale rather than to lease although I dare say they would be open to offers. Looking back these appear to be arcraft that they have taken over other leases on so I do not know if there is much if any written down value on the books. The aircraft are some age now but still have plenty of service left and in some parts of the world will be as new.

[carcosa] 11/1/2016 09:09

Average fleet age w/o F100’s is 4.8 years. Note the number in Avations presentation material is weighted by book value so it does take into account that the F100’s have a low book value. These are high yielding, again due to their low book value. From what I recall these aircraft are being used in the Australian Mining industry so perhaps their will be some renegotiating on these aircraft given commodity prices.

However he F100’s are immaterial in terms of assets on the balance sheet and revenue on the P&L, the driver of our profitability are the ATR 72/Airbus/B737 aircraft in the fleet. Analysis of the F100’s is only looking at less than 5% of the company.

The 4 Airbus aircraft available for sale only appeared on their website last week. I am certain the sale of these aircraft would be a 'bonus' as they are far more likely to remain on lease (or re-leased if necessary).

Financing of relatively large numbers of Airbus/Boeing would, I assume, not be within Avations remit as the aircraft will probably have to be under written by Export Credit Rating Agencies and therefore may preclude Avation from participating. An interesting question to ask Avation though...

[perfect timing] 11/1/2016 08:47

It's interesting to note that Vietjet has placed an order for 30 additional A321 (21 NEO & 9CEO) at the Dubai air show. These new aircraft bringing their order book to 99 Airbus aircraft.
Vietjet will need a partner to fund these aircraft and Avation could well do a lot of business here. I can only assume that the order book extends for 5 years plus but the fact that 9 of the new orders are for CEO suggests they may be the first out of the box.

[perfect timing] 11/1/2016 08:31

I have been researching Avation over the last few weeks and made my first purchase last week. This company has been on my watch list for a while now but I did not find the time to go through the historical announcements.
A couple of observations:
The original 5 Fokker 100's appear to still be on lease well beyond the original contract time. I could not find an announcement for the extension of the contracts. Does anyone know the details as I obviously missed it.

The 4 or 5 new airbus 321 for Vietjet look like a significant deal; worth the equivalent of 16 or 20 turbo prop aircraft. Financially this should be a huge deal for Avation. I like the fact that it comes from Vietjet's Airbus order book rather than Avation's. "These five aircraft are from Vietjet’s Airbus order book. The Aircraft are new and due to be delivered from Airbus in May, July, August, September and November 2016.”

I notice the available aircraft section of the website now shows 4 Airbus aircraft available for sale. Manufactured between 2001 and 2003 this flushing of old stock will dramatically reduce the average age of the aircraft. Avation also have orders in for two more Airbus A321 does anyone know if these are new aircraft; the text suggests they are. I wonder at the written down value of these aircraft and the potential for profit on the sales.

It appears all the transactions are in USD and the company reports in GBP so profit should translate well at the current forex. 2016 looks like a transformational year for AVAP as the model gains scale.

[jamesjoel] 08/1/2016 19:49

Will do going last week in July first week in August

[russman] 07/1/2016 16:44

Who sold 6%?

[lucky punter] 07/1/2016 15:22

james a good time to visit before it gets too hot. Make sure you take the time to explore Gozo.

[deanowls] 07/1/2016 08:14

How do you make a maltese cross?

stamp on his foot!


TAXIiiiiiiiii

[jamesjoel] 07/1/2016 07:44

Im visiting Malta in July

[russman] 06/1/2016 19:37

I like your style; do you still moor at St Julian's?

[qs99] 06/1/2016 13:24

Interesting to see oceanwood upping stake I agree....anyone know more about them? very near the "bid" threshold IMO....

[qs99] 06/1/2016 09:58

anything else from WHI on their picks for 2016 out of interest?

[lucky punter] 06/1/2016 09:57

Russman what a small world it is. What a small Island this is; what a crazy cheap share this is........


The liquidity at the point of buying and selling is largely a matter of timing. I have found times when it is easy to buy but right now there are very few if any shares available for purchase without chasing the share price up.
It does look like the bulk sell went to treasury and Oceanwood. Certainly not a sniff to the market.
260p target looks a tad conservative to me.

[russman] 06/1/2016 09:46

I have just twigged Gozo - Malta.
Oceanwood have a big office & AVAP have a subsidiary in Valetta.

[russman] 06/1/2016 09:33

I am not sure but:-
I think Oceanwood have taken the balance; Jeff took part to keep them under 29.9%.
I thought there was a connection between Oceanwood, Lynchwood and Epsom Assets from my old CLA days.
Not sure why the buys were not reported on the tape.
If I am right, we should find out who the 6% seller was.

[glasshalfull] 06/1/2016 09:24

Courtesy to declare that I bought back in here on Monday following further significant Director buys. I still have misgivings over management (see CLA's shareholder treatment) but hard to ignore the inherent value here.

WH Ireland have issued commentary today on their pick of 2016 & no surprise to see AVAP mentioned.

Avation - A transformational year ahead
Price 137p Target price 260p

Avation is a fully quoted lessor of commercial passenger aircraft to a number of large airlines. Clearly visible in 2016 is the potential for a seminal year for the group. We expect the proceeds from the May 2016 $100m bond issue to have been fully utilised by the end of June, taking Avations fleet to over 40 aircraft across 12 airlines globally and leading to an increase in earnings for the year to June 2017 of almost 60%.

With the shares trading at a significant discount to other international quoted aircraft leasing businesses, we see considerable upside in the share price in 2016 as investors increasingly focus on secured FY 2017E revenue and profitability. Of the internationally quoted lessors, Avation is currently the most attractively priced in our view. We maintain our Buy stance and 260p share price target based on a basket of five valuation metrics.


Kind regards,
GHF

[russman] 06/1/2016 09:22

You can get very wide prices outside nms; please remember it works both ways. If you ever wanted to sell in a hurry.................

[lucky punter] 06/1/2016 08:56

Very difficult to buy anything here; currently quoting 146.5 to buy just a few thousand.

edit they just released 2000 at 144....

[russman] 05/1/2016 19:23

Nice trade, you have lift off.
Better than Jeff could do.

[lucky punter] 05/1/2016 12:11

As if by magic it went through at 139.95. The online quote is zero and I live in Gozo so cannot call to deal so I am a bit limited when they shut down. I will accumulate over the next 3 months or so.

[russman] 05/1/2016 12:08

Well I would not tell anyone what you wish for. You would know the nms is 2k. Look @ the tape, you may figure it out.

[lucky punter] 05/1/2016 11:50

russman agreed however mitigated to some extent by an improving credit rating through a more diversified customer base and geographical exposure. It is very difficult to buy any shares here; I have an order in for 10000 shares up to 140p but so far not completed.

[russman] 05/1/2016 09:52

I have interpreted "commercial risk" to mean the credit risk of their customer profile; which indeed is very low. In the short term, I would judge the forward dollar interest rate to be the biggest risk.

[lucky punter] 05/1/2016 08:08

Russman there is very little exposure to risk with this model. That is all commercial risk. That is because the customer base is diverse, the model is well established and reliable and the funding is in place. The sector is expanding, the product is in demand and the barriers to entry are high. The commercial risk is low.