Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 19/7/2010 10:20

I would have thought confirmation of launch date will push us through £6 and on from there as we approach the date. Some more contracts signed will help also

[jonnib] 18/7/2010 12:11

Assuming launch is now set for mid November....unless more delays, anyone like to suggest any possible share increase once the exact launch date is announced?? im thinking somewhere around the £6 mark on this news alone.
I do not confess to base this on much research just gut feel. My job doesnt allow me the time to do real research. (plus the fact that im a complete novice!)
Comments welcome from all and appreciated

[chrissey] 16/7/2010 17:10

they were probably originally scheduled from 2008! ;-)

[dolores123] 16/7/2010 14:33

This retracement is making a mess of my monthly valuation! We need the launch date to be announced asap.

I see that Arianne space - our launch facility - are sending up an ariane5 with two satelites on August 4th. Pity our satelite isn't one of its payloads.

[smarm] 15/7/2010 18:37

Chrissey - I am in from various prices/at various times from circa 260. Prices are behaving pretty much as I would expect and I cannot make more of a six week delay than is worth making. Financing for Hylas 3 is done with the delay in the background, making the delay totally immaterial. Prices on stocks like AVN, DIA, CAR and TEP all work as described in my earlier post and is a feature of these sorts of stocks.

S

[dolores123] 15/7/2010 12:59

My SIPP will be up and running soon and I can then fill up with AVN shares at these low prices!!

[chrissey] 15/7/2010 12:58

interesting comments smarm.

I'm not a nervous investor, I just don't agree that on going delays are not going to impact price and short term confidence.
of course, I'm sure that long term, the price will rocket but why pay more for something short term than you need.

I can't help it if, assuming you are an investor in the stocks you comment on, the prices are not behhaving as you wish, they are simply following the market dynamics, we aren't going to chaqnge that one way or the other.

I hold over 5000 of these and have invested since 162p and up to 457p, I will buy more but am looking for 425-430p at the moment.

that's all

[togo2] 15/7/2010 11:13

Topped up at 464.75 .

[smarm] 15/7/2010 10:21

Chrissey - have you done more research here than you did on KYS? You strike me as a nervous investor/trader. While it is terribly important to make sure the downside risks are not ignored, to say that a six week delay is significant shows some ignorance of satellite launch programs. Of course it's not a six week delay, it's far longer (going back) but that's of no matter because the contracts for Hylas 1 and 2 keep coming in and now they are financing Hylas 3.

Do you see? The customer base and the money men for these satellite's, and they are the people who matter to us, aren't bovvered.

But the price movements are easily explained. AVN is a sets stock that can be moved by small trades. Market makers only put up 3000 shares - if someone simply puts in a CFD sell on the order book at the sell price, the mm immediately is gone and the price drops - of course the other mm's just follow leaving the price wallowing - PIs panic and sell, the chap who sold the CFDs can then buy back at the nice lower price - job done! It isn't right, it isn't fair but that's the way it is. 3-6 grand of cfd action on the order book can screw over a price. Learn to live with this or don't trade AIM stocks on SETS.

S

[jeffian] 15/7/2010 10:13

No need to be depressed, Dolores, on a medium/long-term basis but at the risk of deepening your depression I'm still waiting for that "buying opp". I cited before delays/launch uncertainties and the volatility of a weak market as reasons why it could go lower before it goes higher in the short term. I completely missed the Placing coming out of the blue; on the one hand it confirmed my fear of 'unknowns' cropping up while we wait for a successful launch and income generation but on the other the share price showed remarkable resilience in the face of the Placing price and the extent of dilution which must show the strength of underlying support here. I'm still of the view it's going to hover round here until all the uncertainties are resolved and on a "bad" day in the market I can see it flirting with the Placing price. That's where I'm hoping to get in, tho I was too greedy last time.

[dolores123] 15/7/2010 09:27

Looks like were in for another down day or "buying opportunity" day which really depress me.

We need a definite launch date to be announced.

[bonty] 15/7/2010 09:05

...unfortunately they never mentioned SAT broadband, the whole thing was centred on BT. It'd be nice to have a bit more public awareness of SAT broadband.

[jonnyno1] 15/7/2010 08:28

great news item re broadband on BBC breakfast, just reinforces the need for SAT broadband.

J.

[naeclue] 14/7/2010 15:06

I think that Avanti is a good investment on a 6 month view point. I think the shifting around now isn't anything to worry about. As long as there is a smooth launch this year, all is good.

Perhaps there will be an update on the schedule on July 28th, when there is a meeting to approve the issue of shares for the funding of Hylas 3.

[yorgi] 14/7/2010 11:58

It is yes I'm sure Chrissey.....however short term the share price is often not a true value or potential value of a company. I beleive this is a classic example and 6 weeks (if thats all it turns out to be) is not a big deal in my opinion as long as it is in orbit and operational in a few weeks or month or twos time the price will rise considerably from here.

However launched and operational is obvoiusly what is crucial.

[chrissey] 14/7/2010 11:44

interesting, seems that until the satellite is in space and working, AVN are getting no return on the investment and if as you alude, the delays only matter to PI's then maybe it is the PI's who are selling because of this?

how can any share not be a trading share?

uncertainty and certainty will drive price one way or the other, isn't that the case here?

[someuwin] 14/7/2010 11:41

The fact that they have said 'possible 6 week delay' is irrelevent. We already knew a delay was possible and that is what has been holding the share price back.

Just as soon as we get an absolute confirmation of launch date (irrespective of when that date is - within reason) then the share price will shoot up to £6 - £7. Then after successful launch we should easily see £10+. imo.

[julcester] 14/7/2010 11:31

It only matters to PI's. Avn is not really a 'trading' share, it is an investment share. As an investor and not a trader, I would not be phased if the launch was delayed further (unless for a year or so!)

[chrissey] 14/7/2010 11:27

6 weeks is a big deal in my opinion, it is not confirmed that this is the case either way nor is it confirmed that this is the full extent of any delay either.

people don't like uncertainty and remember that it was the anticipated launch schedule that gave this stock a lift so any deviation will logically have a similar and opposing effect.

one may convince one self that all is ok but the market isn't as easily satisfied and for good reason.

this aside, people can take advnatage of such price weakness and top up as they see fit to.

[yorgi] 14/7/2010 10:57

Yep... :-) I'm just a bit peaved that I haven't any £'s to buy some more at the moment. AVN looks as safe a buy as anything around at the moment for the type of gains we are looking at

[sco77harris] 14/7/2010 10:52

agree with the above posts, inmarsat wont have any satellites until 2014? could be delays too, avanti should have 2 possibly 3 and hopefully will gain a reputation for a leader in ka band technology, the possibility of that 100 million contract could just be a taster, a few of them and they will quickly be highly cash generative.

[yorgi] 14/7/2010 10:32

Well done Julcester, I don't have any funds spare at the moment or would also add........not that you want to here this but I think the sentiment is such that it could fall a bit further yet....wrongly though in my opinion......it represents an excellent buying oppertunity

[julcester] 14/7/2010 10:28

Just bought a few more. Avanti will still keep signing contracts and delays in this kind of thing are two a penny. Have faith that the management are focused on getting the situation sorted.

[yorgi] 14/7/2010 09:27

Yes you are right Dolores. We need a definite date !

[dolores123] 14/7/2010 09:21

6 weeks is not a big deal but it is on top of all the delays we have had to date.

Lets hope AVN is able to negotiate a launch and announce a firm date before too long.