Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[saracen67] 01/6/2016 08:09

Double witching for UK SATs yesterday as AVN left the MSCI Small cap index and ISAT left FTSE 100. Should be a technical bounce for both

[weatherman] 31/5/2016 22:53

The shorters have all the power as the bulls aren't buying until further good news comes in. I think shorting is immoral and that AVN will come good in the end, but sometimes the market gets the value of companies very wrong. Time will tell.

[seball] 31/5/2016 18:58

This has overshot to down side. Avanti said in May it would meet guidance for Q4. I'm expecting a strong recovery. Good luck

427p price target
Avanti has reported Q3 trading that not only allows it to maintain its guidance for revenue growth, delivering a positive EBITDA in Q3, but clearly indicates a path towards free cash generation. With contract momentum building with high quality customers, recurring revenues are growing, satellite capex is almost complete and the financing facilities nearing finalisation appear more than sufficient to execute the plan. As this progress becomes more widely appreciated, we expect the share price to be released from its shackles and start to trend towards cash-based fair values. Our own capped DCF still returns a fair value of 427p per share.

[seball] 31/5/2016 18:56

"SES has announced its intention to buy the outstanding 49.5% minority in O3b, the medium earth orbit (MEO) Ka-band high throughput satellite (HTS) constellation. SES is paying $2.6bn in EV (including $1.2bn of 9.5% coupon debt) and is to complete the outstanding $600m capex programme to deploy the fleet. The purchase represents an EV/sales multiple of 26x expected FY16 revenues. The valuation has interesting read across to Avanti as it reflects the value the industry is placing on the newer HTS players. The FY16e Avanti EV/sales multiple is just 6x. Our view remains that as the market recognises the ability of Avanti to execute its plan to reach a highly cash generative phase from mid-2018, this value gap should close. That implies substantial upside for Avanti shares."

"The O3b network is a MEO constellation of Ka-band satellites that is being deployed to provide HTS connectivity. SES has announced the deal in the teeth of market concerns over satellite capacity pricing, which we feel relate to the more expensive established Ku-band capacities being disrupted by the new HTS Ka-band entrants such as Avanti. This has led to recent profit warnings and share price weakness for some of the more mature FSS providers. While the ability to more attractively refinance the business is clear, it also suggests SES may regard the timing as a value opportunity following recent sector turbulence and having marginally increased its stake to a majority only in late April. Avanti has established a leading position as the only listed pure Ka-band HTS player with a geostationary earth orbits (GEO) satellite network, with $1.2bn of assets already deployed. A large capacity satellite (HYLAS4) is on track for launch in 2017 completing Avanti’s capex, tripling revenue potential and significantly strengthening cash flow."

[saracen67] 31/5/2016 17:49

The whole sat sector got smashed with the top four, Intelsat eutelsat ses and Inmarsat all off 40% intra year. There will be a bounce

[hpcg] 31/5/2016 17:26

Just seen closing auction was at 69.5. Market cap is still £115mm. From experience the muppet moves, when the herd who have no comprehension of debt load move in, don't start to wing wildly until cap gets down to £50mm. So relatively smoothly down for shorts until about 30p.

[bwakem] 31/5/2016 17:19

Stonking UT trade at 69.5p. It looks pretty clear that IIs are selling out while there is still something left.

[hpcg] 31/5/2016 16:48

Its still just about flared trouser time. I thought for a minute it would close at moon landing. That's what relentless selling by key institutions who have lost hundreds of millions of dollars will do for a share price.

For those looking at 03b you might ask yourself who here has the put option like the minority stakeholders there which meant that SSE was the effective owner anyway.

[seball] 31/5/2016 16:33

Drop on low volume. Expect this to rerate as this is now bottom. Strong Buy imo

[seball] 31/5/2016 15:25

Fantastic interview. Very confident in Avanti business model. Thanks

[saracen67] 31/5/2016 14:46

Got maths wrong, o3b will only have 86ghz in 2020 according to wikipedia so its 42% more expensive than the avn system per GHz.

Anyway, given that takeover and avn recent guidance it would take a brave man to sell at these prices with a month to go

[saracen67] 31/5/2016 11:51

Interesting that o3b was bought for $2.6bn plus they need another 600m capex to get to the 100Ghz they will have with 20 SATs by 2020. Avn spent $1.2bn to get 50 GHz by 2017. So avn capacity is cheaper, finished 3 years faster and they had higher $revs last year.

[chriscallen] 31/5/2016 10:42

An interesting link found on another site shows how AVN support Partners in their marketing efforts. Sematron were also involved:

hxxp://www.first.gr/news/a-stellar-satellite-internet-experience-at-the-elsie-inglis-house

[elrico] 30/5/2016 13:38

Very good observation and one I agree with, Chris. In the case of AVN, we can look at what the company has announced over time and map the chart history accordingly and IMHO, it will show AVN have a history of over promising and underperforming on these. Each RNs that exhibits a positive spin has less positive impact each time; This suggests to me, even IF AVN actually deliver strong cash-flow on a full year period, the market is unlikely to believe this until it see's it replicated over a multi-year period. Of course the problem with this is, AVN don't have time on their side and are running out of time and cash at c€40mil per quarter, which means a fund raising is needed ASAP and given the bonds pricing, this is looking almost impossible without diluting equity to oblivion.

[chriscallen] 30/5/2016 11:45

My problem with the charts generally is that they forecast what is likely to happen on past performance. What they don't cover is the future unless it duplicates what went before. I have two holdings where significant contracts changed the situation entirely and completely wrong footed anybody who invested on charts alone.

In AVNs case we don't know how recently announced (last 12 mths) contracts will impact on performance, especially cash flows. If I did, I'd be very, very rich either way. So I think its a case of charts and an educated assessment of what is in the pipeline. Until I see Q4 I'm neutral.

[beer_boy] 30/5/2016 09:42

This is an interesting article if you belive history is a guide to the future. Doesn't look like any rules broken but interesting. Hold your nose and subscribe to read it or I can post some here? What do the old timers who've been in since the Avanti Scrren Media days think?
hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/21065/the-predictive-powers-of-david-williams-of-avanti-infamy-or-how-he-buries-bad-business
Best and all
beer

[accrillium] 29/5/2016 20:13

Michaelmouse, this is just a polite reminder you were wrong about avn and opti and i am right about both. As you can see the share prices have crossed, avn sub 80p and opti above 80p and nowhere near you 40p prediction. Your avn top ups at 170p and 120p are looking ill timed.

Avanti drowning in debt and bust by Christmas 2016

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Optiobiotix cash for a min of 4 years and expected to be cash neutral by Christmas 2016


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[accrillium] 29/5/2016 20:11

Michaelmouse, this is just a polite reminder you were wrong about avn and opti and i am right about both. As you can see the share prices have crossed, avn sub 80p and opti above 80p and nowhere near you 40p prediction. Your avn top ups at 170p and 120p are looking ill timed.

Avanti drowning in debt and bust by Christmas 2016

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Optiobiotix cash for a min of 4 years and expected to be cash neutral by Christmas 2016


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[spectoacc] 29/5/2016 18:35

Hadn't realised he meant the whole co.

[elrico] 29/5/2016 17:04

It started at £7 when CEO Williams said they were worth £25.

[spectoacc] 28/5/2016 16:57

@value king - I'm in too. The fall is either overdone, or has hardly started.. ;)

[value king] 28/5/2016 12:08

Bought these yesterday. I feel the fall is overdone now.

[seball] 27/5/2016 20:01

"SES has announced its intention to buy the outstanding 49.5% minority in O3b, the medium earth orbit (MEO) Ka-band high throughput satellite (HTS) constellation. SES is paying $2.6bn in EV (including $1.2bn of 9.5% coupon debt) and is to complete the outstanding $600m capex programme to deploy the fleet. The purchase represents an EV/sales multiple of 26x expected FY16 revenues. The valuation has interesting read across to Avanti as it reflects the value the industry is placing on the newer HTS players. The FY16e Avanti EV/sales multiple is just 6x. Our view remains that as the market recognises the ability of Avanti to execute its plan to reach a highly cash generative phase from mid-2018, this value gap should close. That implies substantial upside for Avanti shares."

"The O3b network is a MEO constellation of Ka-band satellites that is being deployed to provide HTS connectivity. SES has announced the deal in the teeth of market concerns over satellite capacity pricing, which we feel relate to the more expensive established Ku-band capacities being disrupted by the new HTS Ka-band entrants such as Avanti. This has led to recent profit warnings and share price weakness for some of the more mature FSS providers. While the ability to more attractively refinance the business is clear, it also suggests SES may regard the timing as a value opportunity following recent sector turbulence and having marginally increased its stake to a majority only in late April. Avanti has established a leading position as the only listed pure Ka-band HTS player with a geostationary earth orbits (GEO) satellite network, with $1.2bn of assets already deployed. A large capacity satellite (HYLAS4) is on track for launch in 2017 completing Avanti’s capex, tripling revenue potential and significantly strengthening cash flow."

[hpcg] 27/5/2016 19:24

tychee - yes a moving satellite has to be tracked, which is much more expensive than a fixed antenna. For moving object such as ships and planes it is a requirement no matter what the satellite is doing. Those markets have the advantage that satellite is the only connectivity. So once again, there is no read across from SES/03b to AVN as they are in different businesses.