Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[seball] 07/6/2016 10:13

Potential here is staggering.


427p price target
Avanti has reported Q3 trading that not only allows it to maintain its guidance for revenue growth, delivering a positive EBITDA in Q3, but clearly indicates a path towards free cash generation. With contract momentum building with high quality customers, recurring revenues are growing, satellite capex is almost complete and the financing facilities nearing finalisation appear more than sufficient to execute the plan. As this progress becomes more widely appreciated, we expect the share price to be released from its shackles and start to trend towards cash-based fair values. Our own capped DCF still returns a fair value of 427p per share.

[newtothisgame3] 07/6/2016 09:22

Avanti Communications (AVN) a fair value of 427p per share.


Avanti promises revenue acceleration, new Ka-band over Europe by June
6th June 2016

Avanti Communications (AVN) Orbital ATK-Built THAICOM 8 Commercial Satellite Success
6th June 2016

AVANTI
Avanti Communications (AVN)to provide high-speed broadband connectivity to TerniEnergia’s South African “giant” PV energy plants
6th June 2016

AVANTI
Avanti Communications (AVN)African telecom industry increases investment in fibre to meet broadband demand

[jeffian] 06/6/2016 23:53

Aye, I do like to repeat me's'en.

8-)

[weatherman] 06/6/2016 22:56

DM - OK I missed your point about margins. But Edison's note has cash breakeven at $135m, not your $99m - so we're looking for quarterly revenue of about $35m - forecast to be met in 2017-18. Also the company can add customers with little increase in cost (to a point), so margins will increase as utilisation increases.

[dangersimpson2] 06/6/2016 21:17

weatherman,

I don't think your model is an accurate reflection of the situation. AVN have spent 80% on two satellites sitting on the ground, several hundred million dollars worth. So their margins an capital employed are bound to look poor.

I don't think you understand the difference between margin & capital employed. margins are after removing expensed costs, return on capital is the returned on the capitilised expenses.

My model doesn't include any capex. It's purely the debt interest ($64m) + Admin Expenses ($35m).

The theoretical revenue at full utilisation is simply scaling up revenue by their claimed percentage utilisation. Now I guess the company could have misled us in the past with regard to their historical utilisation but that seems unlikely. For Edison to get to cashflow break even excluding any capex at 40% utilisation they have to have made very aggressive pricing assumptions, slashed admin expenses (= big job losses at Avanti which are not normally cashflow positive in the short term) or made a mathematical error.

Simple maths shows that 40% cash flow break even requires massive price increases in a deflationary industry pricing environment. It is therefore in my opinion completely unrealistic. But then so are so many of the assumptions in the Edison note that it is hardly surprising.

[gorvachof] 06/6/2016 20:57

Feels like forever you have been saying that eh Jeffian

[weatherman] 06/6/2016 20:25

This reports suggests satellite broadband will see CAGR 6.8% to 2022 (total 58% growth) - Ka Band is now as good as landlines.
hxxp://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/l6vmdv/analysis_of_the

[jeffian] 06/6/2016 19:44

In my experience, companies which base their rationale on "potential market size" tend to be those who wish to cloud the issue of how much of that market they actually capture. My favourite one was 10 Group which, just before it went down the pan, put out an RNS about its latest venture -

"10 Group chairman Andy Moore said: "This exciting new franchise opportunity
gives 10 Leisure an entry into a market currently worth £10 billion and growing
(Source: Mintel, 2001).

"The snacks and treats market has grown fast. From 1994-99 chocolate
confectionery grew three per cent, while snacks and treats grew 97 per cent
(Source: Mintel, 2001)."

Sounds brilliant. The vehicle with which he intended to capture this market was........a free-standing sweet kiosk in Poplar Way Shopping Centre, Solihull!

Like all the others, AVN doesn't need to talk up their market, they just need to get out and sell into it.

[seball] 06/6/2016 19:35

No they don't need more cash.

When does AVN reach cash break even
"One of the most-watched market developments in the commercial satellite telecommunications market today is these new high-throughput satellites’ effect on traditional satellite capacity.

Eutelsat on May 12 issued a profit and revenue warning that was based in part on evidence that competitors’ high-throughput satellites were taking future business away from Eutelsat’s conventional widebeam satellites for certain data applications. “Market demand for high-throughput Ka-band satellite capacity across EMEA [Europe, the Middle East and Africa] is strong,� Avanti said. “Avanti continues to secure new high-quality customers, particularly in the large telco and government sectors, where sales cycles are long but contract value is high. “This success is being driven by either migration from more expensive and lower-capability legacy systems, or the ability of high-quality Ka-band networks to grow the market for new satellite applications,� Avanti said.

Operators have said high-throughput satellites should be judged by a new set of key performance indicators, and that satellite fill rate is no longer a relevant metric. Avanti, for example, has said for the past year that its fleet is between 25 percent and 30 percent full – a level that conventional satellite operators would view as intolerable. For these businesses, a fill rate of 75 percent or higher is the goal."
hxxp://spacenews.com/avanti-promises-revenue-acceleration-new-ka-band-over-europe-by-june/

Edison in their report dated 4th February 2016 pick up on this point "An average fill rate of c 40% on HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 is needed for cash break-even before capex, which we expect to be achieved by the
end of FY18." (www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=15771)

Edison again in their later report say that they believe that Hylas 3 expenditure is now mostly complete and that Hylas 4 is 80% complete. (

So if the analysts are correct AVN does not need 75% plus fill rates but only 40% for cashflow breakeven. On recent performance they should be achieving this capacity level in about 12 mths. The Edison report could not have anticipated a win of the size of the EE contract hence their later date.

By cashflow breakeven I mean that they are covering all outflows including interest. This is of course not suddenly achieved on day 365 as they will build towards it from day 1. The importance of this is that operational cash outflows should start dropping now and Q4 results should show this happening. If this is so the share price could move substantially from present levels as the market wakes up to the fact that AVN is actually disrupting the traditional market as it operates on an entirely different cost model.

[pugugly] 06/6/2016 18:33

May have already been posted but worth a re-read.


Also what seems to be missing from posts on this thread and the other one is a detailed review of the potential market size at various price points - and the competition and current and prospective total capacity. Or have I missed it amongst the bear & bull slagging - If so could anyone kindly point me to the appropriate post/s

I see many suggest that Walsh (ex Diageo) could be a reason to invest BUT have a look at RM2 (he is there as well - or was last time I checked their site) both may come right in time and timing may well now be the key but as always DYOR - No recommendation either way but as always intensive DD needed for any decision.

[elrico] 06/6/2016 17:08

Weatherman - I can not provide what AVN managment don't report on as they should. There should have been a number of holding RNs notifying shareholders of sales, are these up to date? I doubt it. As for the refinancing, I am sorry to say, you are deluded if you think raising new funds is going to assist your investment case or help recover your losses. All I can go off is what my brokers elude to me, and they both state there has been a clawback on borrowed stock as I have previously reported at the time I was stopped out on a limit order designed to lock in profit, I then tried to add again, which proved problematic; I had to go to IG and I hate using them because they will cut the ground from under you if you are not careful. I suspect this is all a side-bar issue, because I am sure if I had copies of sales and posted them here you wouldn't believe me any way, would you.


You appear to acknowledge one important fact though, but suspect this has escaped you...AVN will need to raise additional funding...correct? In this case, you must then by this logic accept you do not believe AVN when they tell you they are fully funded...QED!!

[weatherman] 06/6/2016 16:58

That is 1 institution.... the cash burn is so high because they are building satellites and have about 20% more to pay on H4 ~$80-90m in my estimate [edit $80-90m]. But you must know that as you read all the statements,

[accrillium] 06/6/2016 12:46

weatherman you should direct that question to avanti, you can not blame a poster for non compliance.

[hpcg] 06/6/2016 12:39

weatherman - no M&G will sell down as the price goes to zero. Them selling is part of the pressure on the price. Avanti has never been in the 250 as it is not eligible. Even if it had the current lowest cap is a fund with a cap of £239mm, and next Chimmy Choo at £433mm. Avanti passed the latter a long time ago.

[weatherman] 06/6/2016 11:30

Elrico - you still haven't provided evidence for your assertion... M&G hold 18.6% - do you think they will sit back and watch the price go to zero. They would have advised a rights issue a year ago if they thought the company would run out of cash in 2017. Even now they could raise several £10m finance through a placing / open offer if they needed it. GIC may have sold recently because of the exit from FTSE 250

[seball] 06/6/2016 11:13

When does AVN reach cash break even
"One of the most-watched market developments in the commercial satellite telecommunications market today is these new high-throughput satellites’ effect on traditional satellite capacity.

Eutelsat on May 12 issued a profit and revenue warning that was based in part on evidence that competitors’ high-throughput satellites were taking future business away from Eutelsat’s conventional widebeam satellites for certain data applications. “Market demand for high-throughput Ka-band satellite capacity across EMEA [Europe, the Middle East and Africa] is strong,� Avanti said. “Avanti continues to secure new high-quality customers, particularly in the large telco and government sectors, where sales cycles are long but contract value is high. “This success is being driven by either migration from more expensive and lower-capability legacy systems, or the ability of high-quality Ka-band networks to grow the market for new satellite applications,� Avanti said.

Operators have said high-throughput satellites should be judged by a new set of key performance indicators, and that satellite fill rate is no longer a relevant metric. Avanti, for example, has said for the past year that its fleet is between 25 percent and 30 percent full – a level that conventional satellite operators would view as intolerable. For these businesses, a fill rate of 75 percent or higher is the goal."
hxxp://spacenews.com/avanti-promises-revenue-acceleration-new-ka-band-over-europe-by-june/

Edison in their report dated 4th February 2016 pick up on this point "An average fill rate of c 40% on HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 is needed for cash break-even before capex, which we expect to be achieved by the
end of FY18." (www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=15771)

Edison again in their later report say that they believe that Hylas 3 expenditure is now mostly complete and that Hylas 4 is 80% complete. (

So if the analysts are correct AVN does not need 75% plus fill rates but only 40% for cashflow breakeven. On recent performance they should be achieving this capacity level in about 12 mths. The Edison report could not have anticipated a win of the size of the EE contract hence their later date.

By cashflow breakeven I mean that they are covering all outflows including interest. This is of course not suddenly achieved on day 365 as they will build towards it from day 1. The importance of this is that operational cash outflows should start dropping now and Q4 results should show this happening. If this is so the share price could move substantially from present levels as the market wakes up to the fact that AVN is actually disrupting the traditional market as it operates on an entirely different cost model.

[elrico] 06/6/2016 11:03

Good morning 3 stoogies

Weatherman - you have just hit the nail on the head, avoiding your thumb, a good result for one so blind. Post 2523 highlights why you are invested here and I am not. I have explained previously, but you chose to ignore or fail to see what I can see. You then go on to admit Edison, has made mistakes in the past, yet somehow you feel confident they are correct this time! AVN will not see FY2017, nevermind FY2018. I'll give you a clue to my thinking as to where I know Edison are coming from with their projections....where do you think Edison got their numbers from? Not independently, I can assure you of that, they come from AVN and Edison will assume they are correct, even though as daft as Edison are, they will no doubt suspect AVN track record will not change for the better.

Have you noticed the recent change in trading pattern these past two weeks? There has been a key shift from bullish am to bearing afternoon, to bearish morning and afternoon, hence the more speediant decline in the share price than normal.

[weatherman] 06/6/2016 08:20

So why no recent RNS to this effect, or are you just spreading porkies.... Show us some evidence to back up your claim.

[accrillium] 06/6/2016 05:13

Institutions are SELLING, wake up!!

[hpcg] 05/6/2016 23:06

Some posters here seem to be confusing Avanti with Inmarsat. The latter is the successful British satellite company with top quality management.

[jeffian] 05/6/2016 19:26

If it's that obvious, how do you explain the share graph in the header?!