Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[backmarker] 25/5/2012 15:05

the market seems very quiet today across the shares I watch.

are we waiting for Greece ?

if you watched the Portillo programme recently he asked different Greeks whether they wanted to switch back to the drachma or stay with the euro. they ALL wanted to stay with the euro, because they felt that was the best chance of them ever having any fiscal discipline.

the impression I have is that France wanted the euro in order to advance their desire for a one-state Europe. they did a deal with Germany, who were happy enough because that way they avoided a revalued D-mark. and they bent the rules to allow Italy in, as without Italy they probably wouldn't have been able to float it.

who has fared best under the euro ? Germany, by a mile.

who has suffered ? the PIIGS, certainly, suckered by too much cheap and easy debt. and Britain too, as trade slows down, and directly and indirectly we become embroiled in helping to pick up some of the pieces.

[backmarker] 25/5/2012 14:45

if Hylas-2 starts selling above expectations following operational go-live (expected end-August from memory) then I would imagine we'll start hearing things in 2013.

[yorgi] 25/5/2012 14:26

That will be interesting when the BOD start talking about Hylas 4 :-)

[backmarker] 25/5/2012 13:33

this still leaves the door open for a Hylas-4 as and when needed.

we have been told that revenue expectations are on track or better.

so we should be in a great position financially by the time H-4 is needed.

AVN has quite a number of slots in which to put satellites, and I am quite sure they will want to put more up as quickly as is prudent and in line with emerging demand.

and demand will be high, higher or highest.

[yorgi] 25/5/2012 11:58

Well done Colva, good to see you are on the ball putting some meat on the bones that answers it all for John :-)

[colva] 25/5/2012 10:57

John,

From the 06th Feb RNS .



The HYLAS 3 Project



HYLAS 3 will have up to 4GHz of Ka band capacity. This will be configured across eight beams within a single steerable antenna that can provide coverage of an area equivalent to a region the size of Southern Africa and can be moved throughout the life of the satellite. The satellite will be positioned in one of Avanti's orbital locations with an earth view covering Africa and the Middle East. Delivery into orbit is expected in 2015.


Avanti expects to experience strong demand for the capacity on HYLAS 3 for the following reasons:


· the flexibility of coverage provided by the steerable beam will be of interest to some institutional and international customers who would see benefits from being able to move the coverage across a large geographic area depending on their needs;


· the Company's existing customer relationships, developed through the sale of capacity on HYLAS 2, have given it insight into the business plans that underpin demand in certain countries for this amount of capacity;



· the additional capacity would provide greater credibility to Avanti's existing offering and a path to growth for existing customers; and



· as demand develops in different markets, Avanti would have the ability to move the capacity between regions so as to maximise price and also to manage fleet efficiency in future.



Following the launch of HYLAS 3, 80 per cent. of Avanti's capacity will address the emerging telecommunications markets of Africa and the Middle East.



The advantage of entering into a joint venture agreement with ESA is that Avanti reduces costs relating to the satellite platform, launch vehicle, insurance and project management. These savings would mean that Avanti would benefit from a satellite project cost per GHz that is over 40 per cent. cheaper than HYLAS 2. In addition, under the terms of ESA's proposals, Avanti would not be liable for any potential cost over-runs relating to the construction of the satellite bus (chassis). Given the overlapping geographic coverage of HYLAS 2 and HYLAS 3, there would be no additional operating expenditure relating to its HYLAS 3 hosted payload.



The advantage of pursuing the development of HYLAS 3 in this manner is that it would provide additional capacity at a lower risk and considerably lower price than the capacity derived from both HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 and that no further debt would be required for HYLAS 3.

[yorgi] 25/5/2012 10:55

I don't think anyone is desperate here Buywell, AVN or on target selling Hylas 1 going well and on target I understand, Hylas 2 due to be launched in the next few weeks hence or confidence but by all means see that as desperation and ramping.

[2350220] 25/5/2012 10:54

Sorry Buywell,
I really didn't mean any ramping in my above posts.
I'm strictly small fry compared with the likes of most on here.

John

[buywell2] 25/5/2012 10:50

Do I detect a tad of desperation re the share price and chart ?

The volume of ramping posts tends to lead me to what that the answer might be

For now 300p clearly is a major price that will dictate what happens

[2350220] 25/5/2012 10:45

Thanks Gary,
Yeah that's sort of how I was reading it. But it just seems a bit of a backwards step, to make something smaller than before, even if it's cheaper.

Just my take on it.

Anyway, whatever they do, I am more relaxed and more confident that Avanti will finally live up to their name, and Avanti con molti veloci.

John

[yorgi] 25/5/2012 10:44

Sorry John it looks like I misread your post my apologies........I think Gary has now answered your question.

[garymott] 25/5/2012 10:39

John, yes you have misunderstood the whole Hylas 3 project. Capacity is less than Hylas 2 (and closer to Hylas 1 but can't remember exactly) but there is a huge cost saving by co-launching with ESA giving a very much lower cost base per unit of capacity. I haven't got the figures off the top of my head and I'm currently too busy to find the details. I think it was in one of the RNSs early this year.

[2350220] 25/5/2012 10:38

Sorry Yorgi,
My post wasn't that clear. I meant: That I understood that Hylas 3 wasn't as big as Hylas 1 or certainly not as big as Hylas 2.

Sure I am very happy that 2 is the Big Daddy by the looks of things.

John

[yorgi] 25/5/2012 10:17

Wedge, flag or chinese lanterns this will be rising over the next few weeks I'm very confident of that..........I wish I had some more spare to put on it John :-)

[yorgi] 25/5/2012 10:10

John,

If you think of the vast an area it covers you can understand I'm sure how large the potential customer base is and with it in service add to our revenues considerably.

[yorgi] 25/5/2012 10:06

John,

Hylas 2 is much bigger than Hylas 1, I can't tell you off the top of my head how much but the information is all out there.

It will be covering Europe, Africa and the Middle East

[2350220] 25/5/2012 09:59

I'm not any expert on charthing, but isn't this a great Wedge/flag we are forming, on the longer term chart?

John

[2350220] 25/5/2012 09:53

Yorgi et all,
Am I correct in thinking that Hylas 3 is going to have Less capacity/bandwidth than Hylas 1?
If that is correct, it seem a heck of a lot of time, effort and expense to put something up there, which has less rather than more capacity/bandwidth/speed.

Or have I misunderstood the lie of the land in this respect?

John

[johncsimpson] 25/5/2012 08:34

Still no momentum - 6 trades with a buy/offer of circa 306/316 which is just the MMs waiting for a few early trades before they drop towards circa 303/307 which is what happened yesterday . . .

[yorgi] 25/5/2012 08:08

Well it is the right time for us Plasybryn with Hylas 2 close to launch which will have a much greater impact on the revenues than Hylas 1.

As usual AVN making a slow start to the dat.

[johncsimpson] 25/5/2012 07:56

Last nights weekly update from RHPS:

AVANTI COMMUNICATIONS (AVN): Caledonia Investments has a £39m stake in Avanti. It has published its interim results, saying 'Avanti is in an early stage of development as a satellite communications service provider and is in the process of building income following the successful launch of its first satellite in November 2010. We have been investors since the outset of this company and remain confident in its offering.' BUY UP TO 750p (Today's close 310p)

[plasybryn] 24/5/2012 18:31

Yorgi: Well yes again I think we should be alright here as well. Excellant time to be owning Avanti IMO and hopefully Peter Webb will see that value as well.

[yorgi] 24/5/2012 18:06

So will this be good news for us..........

Coffee with Peter Webb
Today (2012-05-24 10:40:33)Print this Article
Coffee with Peter Webb

I had a good long chat today with Peter Webb who will be managing the t1ps funds going forward. He is a good man – I have known him for 14 years. We had another chat this evening – laughing about how he had sent a broker off with a flea in its ear as it offered to relieve him of a line of shares at a silly price.

Webb is a value investor and a long term investor. He is busy meeting all the companies your funds are invested in and says that he is excited about the portfolios and will not be making dramatic changes. Small caps are bombed out and we agree valuations are crackers. We see eye to eye on gold. Now is a time to be brave and buying, not selling.

I am not going to work at Webb Capital. Right now I am utterly exhausted and have family issues to address. That comes before anything else. After 12 years non stop work I want a break – I am committed to t1ps.com but that is it for now. I have been offered a number of other opportunities by a lot of good folks but pro tem I want a real rest. Moreover Peter is a good man and he needs to run his own show. I am making introductions to companies I have backed and am happy to share my thoughts if asked. Peter and I have chatted regularly for ages – that will not change. But he is the boss and I have no desire to rain on his parade in any capacity.

Do I think your funds are in good hands? Yes. I plan to buy a few units in each of the three funds myself tomorrow. I have that much faith in Webb.

Tom

[johncsimpson] 24/5/2012 17:38

One down 6% the other down 7% - told you charts work . . .

[yorgi] 24/5/2012 16:31

Well we closed blue Backmarker......ish anyway :-)