Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[new tech] 17/5/2012 09:51

Apparently Daniel Stewart has a 2052p figure on them.

[backmarker] 17/5/2012 09:10

ah ! looks like the shares mag effect has just kicked in.

[backmarker] 17/5/2012 09:06

I agree with shares mag. ;~}

[dolores123] 17/5/2012 08:42

This mornings Shares mag says BUY - next target 430p.

[johncsimpson] 17/5/2012 07:53

Re the above. The graph has moved on a bit during the day - re the pennant, it looks as though the movement will be down.

[yorgi] 16/5/2012 12:50

Thank you John and All The Best to You as well :-)

[2350220] 16/5/2012 12:48

I sincerely hope you are right Yorgi.

All the best to you,
John

[yorgi] 16/5/2012 12:36

Well the market is not helping at the moment John but there is still time yet and I would think the recovery will continue again soon and hopefully after the launch this time.

[2350220] 16/5/2012 12:32

Guess it just doesn't want to repeat the lovely run-up to Hylas 1 launch, but the looks of things:-(

John

[yorgi] 16/5/2012 11:11

Backmarker,

I have just read your previous post again.....I misread it.....Anyway 30th June or a few days into July it does not matter a few weeks away now and as you pointed out another successful launch :-)

[backmarker] 16/5/2012 11:04

yorgi,

yes, of course you are correct. and it was also confirmed in the recent RNS that the window is from 30th June.

but my expectation is that it will be at least a day later, which takes it into early July.

anyway let's not quibble about that but rather take advantage of the current buying opportunity. unfortunately as I don't have any spare investment cash I am limited to a pound or two on a spreadbet. but I'm hoping others can, and so support the price.

[buywell2] 16/5/2012 10:14

Off topic

Great update from Source BioScience (SBS) today

Profits increasing , turnover up double digits, web traffic up 90% , sales from that up 50% , Gene Expression work up 60% .... which in a Pharma Biotech minnow is as rare as hens teeth

[gekks] 16/5/2012 10:14

Yes Yorgi - Unlike every other share in my p/f - though great opportunity so I've added in MIN

[yorgi] 16/5/2012 10:11

So far the Greek troubles not hitting us to badly at the moment !

[yorgi] 16/5/2012 08:55

I was told at the Mi2012 show it was from the 30th June Backmarker.

[johncsimpson] 16/5/2012 08:50

In the bulls v bears - 300 is still the psychological resistance area.



Ignore the indicators behind the MACD histogram. They're not helpful at this phase of the cycle. The histogram should now drop into the 'negative red zone' below the zero line (not guaranteed but that's the most likely scenario). I expect the price to bobble along around this area for some time; plus or minus 5% buoyed by the Hylas 2 launch next month all being well. As an aside, there's a pennant forming. (There is usually either an upward or downward burst as the 'tip' narrows).

The red dotted line could be argued to be another support of sorts.

Whether or not the histogram falls into the 'red zone', don't expect any real forward movement until it reverses back up. The question is when will this reversal take place relative to the launch? It could now be weeks rather than days.

For chart lovers and general interest and all IMO, of course.

[backmarker] 16/5/2012 08:41

Araine VA206 got away successfully last night.

VA207 due to launch on 19 June.

I assume we are VA208 (Hylas 2) and still looking good for early July.

[gorvachof] 15/5/2012 13:12

With Avanti still confident of the launch happening in July, possible Hylas 2 launch partners seem to be Intelsat20 or GSAT10? worth keeping eyes peeled for news on either, but judging by recent comments from both companies my money would be on it being GSAT10.

[yorgi] 15/5/2012 13:01

Nicely blue again which is good with so much red all around :-)

[restassured] 15/5/2012 12:26

With all three satellites now funded and a few weeks away from the launch of Hylas 2,the company must be vulnerable to an opportunistic bid,if the valuations are to be believed.




"City analysts have some pretty punchy targets, with the average of the three analysts monitored by Bloomberg being £16.50, a staggering 430pc above the current levels."

[restassured] 15/5/2012 08:17

Second last paragraph....



Avanti Communications
313¾p -14 ¼p
Questor says BUY


Avanti sells satellite broadband services to telecoms providers, which then resells the service to households and businesses.


The company's first satellite, HYLAS 1, launched in November 2010, is the first superfast broadband satellite launched in Europe.


Avanti's second satellite, called HYLAS 2, is fully funded and is scheduled for launch in the next few months. This satellite will extend Avanti's coverage to Africa and the Middle East.


The third satellite, HYLAS 3, is currently in the design phase, but this is also fully funded to launch.




Things have been going reasonably well at the group – as a trading update released yesterday showed – but the shares took a bath last year on negative sentiment.

The company was subject to what is known as a "bear raid". A high profile City player took a significant short position in the shares and then proceeded to make this fact known to the market.

Also last year, broker Numis had to issue an apology after publishing misleading statements about the group relating to contracts signed with clients.

"Numis has raised doubts about the contract Avanti Communications has signed with TigrisNet in widely distributed emails and conversations. Numis apologises if the previous communication led to a misunderstanding," the City broker said.

Unfortunately, mud sticks. This sort of thing can become a self-fulfilling prophecy and the share price has sunk. However, what is more important now is the future.

The company has undertaken a fund-raising and needs to raise no more cash to complete its launch plans. Indeed, at the interim stage Avanti had £26m of cash on its balance sheet. The launch of HYLAS 2, which will happen in a 30-day window from June 30, should be the next positive catalyst going forward. The group also plans to move from Aim to a full listing next year.

Avanti confirmed that in the four-month period to April 30 it had added £42.3m of backlog. These are contracts signed for bandwidth on both HYLAS 1 and 2. This brought the total backlog to £213m and Avanti said its pipeline of potential sales stood at £529m.

The company needs to make about £11m of sales each month to meet its target of filling capacity on HYLAS 1 by 2014 and HYLAS 2 by 2016. The figures indicate it is on track to do just that.

The company is currently loss-making, but it is expected to move into profit next year, with earnings rising quickly thereafter. The 2013 multiple is a very heady 163 times, but this falls to 9.3 in 2014 and just 4.4 in 2015.

The shares were first recommended on January 8, 2010, at 467½p and they are now down 33pc compared with a market up 1pc. The shares have drifted from a high of 735p. Questor noted that the investment could be very volatile and it was "not one on which to bet the farm" and that view still stands. The shares are now looking pretty cheap, should the group manage to fill all of its satellites. City analysts have some pretty punchy targets, with the average of the three analysts monitored by Bloomberg being £16.50, a staggering 430pc above the current levels.

Questor maintains a buy stance and looks forward to the launch of HYLAS 2 as the next major catalyst.

[thescoop] 15/5/2012 08:01

Questor share tip: Avanti orbit looks inviting as satellite launch approaches.