Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 02/4/2012 17:20

What? Taking all those capital losses?

8-(

[undertaker] 02/4/2012 14:55

adn don't forget to add the 'End of tax year' effect into the mix

[k0108356] 02/4/2012 14:26

Well not really Jonnib, when a share price is down 3.3% there are clearly more seller's then buyer's. Simple supply/demand...

[jonnib] 02/4/2012 14:19

the large seller is probably still selling!...but someones buying them

[yorgi] 02/4/2012 11:57

The market still wants to see some figures I guess, that is all I can see. They have continued to win contracts and there is nothing to suggest Hylas 1 is not working well and Hylas 2 launch still on schedule.

[maximilianfinetto] 02/4/2012 11:49

i can't seem to understand why, even after the shorters have gone, the share price hasn't gone up ?? and why it is still floating around the 250 - 260 mark? any thoughts would be appreciated...

[malcolmmm] 02/4/2012 11:41

something is fishy here, one has to ask why these are under performing whilst most stocks with potential have recovered to some degree

[divinausa1] 01/4/2012 13:10

The next 5 yrs are very clear for this company...
easy company to follow and
easy to find reasons to buy stock at these levels
i cant find any reasons to sell, shorters will close
along the way as the world economies recover, USA already
on the way Europe wont be far behind...

3 yrs time i will be selling before the Asian crisis starts

My regret in 2yrs time im sure will be that i did not buy more stock...

[jeffian] 01/4/2012 12:31

Hi divinausa1,

Actually, I wasn't (quite) that bad; I bought in October 2010 in the run-up to the launch so mine start with a '5' rather then a '6' or '7'! With hindsight, I should have pocketed the profit on launch of H1, but I believe the story and intend to hold long-term. Given that the company has been pretty good at doing what it said it would do - in terms of getting satellites funded, built and launched successfully and selling into the markets they identified - I don't really understand how the shorting campaign was so successful, but there you go. I fully expect a reasonable recovery in the run-up to the launch of H2 and thereafter it should be self-sustaining as long as the revenues start to come in as predicted. Shorters thrive on uncertainty but the one thing you can't argue with is cashflow, and that's what we need to see here now.

[divinausa1] 01/4/2012 10:39

jeffian - 30 Mar'12 - 10:04 - 8293 of 8301

"who would have wanted to buy AVN at the end of 2010 at +600 up to 700, sit around all last year whilst the price dropped (despite a stream of contract wins) to be looking at an investment that would now be worth about 40% on paper of the original value?"

Hello? Did someone call?

8-)
----------------------

your in good company so did the directors, also they have bought on the way down shed loads... nothing is a dead cert but around these prices i have been buying

[bump3r] 31/3/2012 16:54

Jonnib the ESA collaboration for launch of Hylas3 was due to be concluded in March too.

[jonnib] 31/3/2012 16:12

charts or no charts this share can only go one way now. With the launch scheduled for June/July, the possibility of the military contract, new contracts drip fed to us over the next few months re hylas 2, the singaporian government buying heaviliy into AVN, more recent director buys and the recent appointment of the Diaggio guy....all of this is enough for me to buy a few more and remain positive. Been in these for 6 years, I can wait another 4/6 months

[monkeywrench] 30/3/2012 11:20

Easy for you to say colva.
Please remember that as well as Heiken Ashi candles, 3 moving averages and several support/resistance lines, johnc could also be treading water at this moment in time.

[colva] 30/3/2012 11:13

John ,

I notice you have Heiken Ashi candles , 3 moving averages and several support/resistence lines , just a suggestion , if you are going to post charts ( and im all for it myself ) then it might be better to keep it simple so that those not familiar with them can see where you're coming from.

[johncsimpson] 30/3/2012 10:11

backmarker - 30 Mar'12 - 09:36 - 8289 of 8291

johnc,

I like the chart, but what's it saying ?

Haven't got time for this BUT - 250 was a likely bottom for all sorts of chartist reasons I haven't time to go into (as was 290ish) - so based on the decision that 300/290 was bottom, buy.

Got it wrong, so with a drop of 10% buy at 270ish but buy 10% more than the first buy. Drop another 10% and buy 10% more than the second buy. Basically now in for 265ish (I call it pound cost averaging) and committed big time.

The trend lines are dead subjective but being visual I hope they make a degree of sense . . .

The dotted ascending one (for me and me only) is now a support level. Hence my notional 260 call of yesterday. It still stands though I note there was a worrying signal first thing when the bid was under 260. If it tests this again I may well sell half my holding, take the loss and tread water . . . .

These are (john's) short term/traders indicators and no more.

[mechanical trader] 30/3/2012 10:05

JCSimpson.

I used to be a fundies person only
being a management accountant.

I then semi retired and found more time
on my hands and found fundies needed more
back up for trading the markets.

Bought a few books (well a lot now)on TA
and have never looked back.

Gives a overview of the entire collective
market and a companys relative position/insight
to that.

Basically shows what the crowd are doing and
what they are likely to do (not guranteed but high %)
going forward.

[lazyj] 30/3/2012 10:04

Many thanks johncsimpson. I am sure that there are many of us who find it beneficial to have your charts complement the generous thought provoking contributions, both pros and cons, that make this thread so special.

[jeffian] 30/3/2012 10:04

"who would have wanted to buy AVN at the end of 2010 at +600 up to 700, sit around all last year whilst the price dropped (despite a stream of contract wins) to be looking at an investment that would now be worth about 40% on paper of the original value?"

Hello? Did someone call?

8-)

[johncsimpson] 30/3/2012 09:50

Martin, I've copied this from a post I put elsewhere - I trade and use charts so fundamentals come a distant second in most of my calculations but there are all sorts of other things that can affect a share price.

Yes, fundamentals are important otherwise I wouldn't be here but who would have wanted to buy AVN at the end of 2010 at +600 up to 700, sit around all last year whilst the price dropped (despite a stream of contract wins) to be looking at an investment that would now be worth about 40% on paper of the original value?

So if winning contracts added to a 'good' fundamental story doesn't drive the price forward then what does? I don't have an all-embracing answer to that question. None of us here do but I have a reverse question something along the lines of - Why is the price of AVN so depressed? I would think we could all come up with answers to that question from shorters to Institutional selling to a satellite malfunction (made that up by the way but I wouldn't put it past someone with their own agenda to start a rumour quoting a 'reliable' bb. source etc.). But you get the gist.

I find charts very useful but I trade. I'm past that point in my life where I have long term investment goals. But even someone with a long term investment goal wouldn't want to have paid +600p. I use my charts to get me in and out of shares. I have specific rules to do with when I buy and when I sell based on indicators that work more often than not. In general terms they are no more useful than any number of other factors and you're probably right in that they're less valid for smaller companies like AVN. They're just a tool.

My charts got me in to RMP in early February as low as 19.75 up to 21 point something. I sold in the second week of March in the 30p area; a near 50% rise in less than a month. They then went up to +40 in the following week/ ten day so I could have doubled my money. Yorgi is able to verify the story because I told him in an ADVFN' private message' at the time.

Enough, I have things to do coz I'm away on holiday for the next nine days.

[mechanical trader] 30/3/2012 09:49

Its saying as a whole the market is
more bullish on AVN and the share price has bottomed
out and buyers are now in the ascendancy.

The lower indicator and moving averages are
pointing to future share price gains.

[backmarker] 30/3/2012 09:36

johnc,

I like the chart, but what's it saying ?

[martin3042] 30/3/2012 08:26

John I'm not having a pop at you or your charts. I was genuinely asking if you thought Charts were appropriate for such a small company where real game changing news was going to determine the share price. But yes credit to you I'm not going to quibble about 0.375p. I too have a large investment in this.

[johncsimpson] 29/3/2012 17:30

martin3042

From my post 8276 of this morning (but read it all . . . .)

. . . . I'll go out on a limb here because I was always taught that everything you need to know about a share is there in the chart. (That's actually too much of a generalisation for me because charts don't contain the next RNS do they)?

For that reason, I agree with you 100% Yorgi (8286). And on fundamentals, the 'military one' is perhaps a short term 'game changer' . . .

Martin, read all my recent posts (and call it luck if you like) especially those I posted this morning where I said 260 would be support. OK, I got it wrong it looks like 260.375 was today's bottom. But what do you people want? And don't forget this was when quite a few were saying last nights after close trade of +600,000 was a turning point. Not for the first time has 'something been a turning point'. We had another turning point last Friday when a 'seller' was out of the way. I suggested pre-opening this morning that things were 'iffy' last night – (only partly to do with charts, by the way).

I thought these threads were supposed to an amalgamation of people's views where (dare I say it), we helped each other to a better understanding. I've said elsewhere on this thread "shares are manipulated". Others have said here – "We shouldn't be arguing with each other. It's us against them"!

The things I post are what I believe. I'm not always right, in fact, I'm often wrong and I've posted that elsewhere on this thread. I have an awful lot of money in AVN. But if all people want to do is read 'good news' from tip sheets then fine . . . .

This is my chart for AVN as of close:



(Then you might like to go to another thread and look at my posts and charts for MYT).