Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[pojscott] 06/10/2011 14:36

I need to get my eye's tested, just looked at S/P and thought they were going up, must be old age--or--could it be true?????

[rimmy2000] 06/10/2011 12:42

bought a few this morning, gutted I was stopped out. better late than never though..

[matthew palmer] 06/10/2011 09:12

Dear Yorgi

I have just seen the write up you posted that was sourced from "Company and Growth Equities & Company Research".

Sorry to tell you this organization and anything it handles is not to be touched, there was a good write up about 2 months ago in Private eyes city column looking at Tom Winnfred (owner) and his web of companies that promote each other - you have just fallen victim

[cancun tango] 06/10/2011 08:44

Yorgi/Gorv

Good to see you two make it up. I think any thread benefits from having a good mix of opinions. I find that both of you post interesting insightful information that has allowed me to get a better idea of the potential and risk of AVN. All bystanders benefit from you not wasting your energies in a battle of personalities.

[christianf12] 06/10/2011 08:33

Come on big push through 300p today!!

[yorgi] 06/10/2011 00:50

Gorvachof

Apologies accepted and I would like to apologize from one or two uncalled for comments some weeks ago......so lets move on from that :-)

I will have another read through your post tomorrow sometime......if my attention is not elsewhere all day and comment.

As for the trend is still down, well it certainly has been no argument there but I just hope the trend has now turned.

[gorvachof] 06/10/2011 00:13

Yorgi,
If I did make a mistake regarding your posts last night I appologies.
I'm making no comment regarding broker notes being false or lies, just that they have a tendancy to be way off mark, as for TW correcting SC, I have my own opinions on this.

I can certainly appreciate their comes a time when one has to acknowledge their continued buying, whether or not it has been to support the decline is not my issue. The issue for me has aways been the even larger sales they made at a critical stage in the companies development, its no wonder the market lost confidence.

I have seen little evidence that Hylas 1 is selling well, and the capacity details in the results did not do much to allay my fears. The ability of Avanti to turn Hylas into profits plays a big part in its value, at some point I appreciate any disconnect between the assets and the share price would have to close, at the moment though the overall trend is still down.

With regards to competition in rural areas, the recent Kent announcement only confirmed what I already knew, each county may choose a slightly different approach, but still the guidelines given to them are still the same. Both companies mentioned on here have good reports from their respective counties and along with others likely to recieve their part of USC funding.
It differs from country to country, but many of the governing bodies that fund rural broadband roll-outs have preference for fibre-based infrastructure and there is a risk that operators may put more effort into selling their own fixed and mobile broadband services rather than someone else's satellite service, even those consumers where satellite would be a more suitable option.

Their is a difference between some types of competing companies and "pie in the sky".
White space, as a rural broadband solution is really stupid, and no it doesn't work in Australia (or anywhere) in a proper engineering sense ,the concept is inherently flawed and can't ever work except maybe in a very limited niche sense.

[hpcg] 06/10/2011 00:04

Gorvachof - a belated reply to post 6896. I confess I haven't studied the results in great detail because of the short operational period and have spent more time on other recent results I have an interest in which have more short term relevance.
The share price is now very well supported by assets and forward multiples are more reasonable. That isn't to say the share price can't go down further as in this market everything can (and probably will) go down further.
I'm looking out for cellular backhaul wins and eastern europe activity as I think the former is important in all markets(so for 2 and 3) whilst the latter is important whe it comes to filling up 1. A failure to pick up backhaul business would be a concern. I don't know what effect the upcoming recession will have; I hope Avanti does not undersell just to win business as I think that would be short sighted.
Assuming there is a drip drip of contract wins then I anticipate a slow and undramatic share price climb, but not against macro or market headwinds, so plenty of time to watch and wait.
Best value I see at the moment is in large US companies (though not the time to buy yet) so for now my holding here is tucked away. I'm not selling because there is takeout potential and at a level I think would see me more or less whole. If my Brent shorts come good and news is reasonable here I will add - we'll need a drop in the oil price to help get us (industrial world) out of recession.

[yorgi] 05/10/2011 21:34

Gorvachof

Are you saying all those broker notes are false or lies ?

I was reposting them for anyone to see and along with any other information people can find out they can then make their judgement like I have to buy or not. I don't think you will find there is anything untrue in them unlike what a certain shorter was posting and corrected by TW.

Yes I thought many times on the way down was a good time to buy but up to now I have been wrong as the share price has continued to fall as we all well know.

In the end the truth and potential and eventually profits will out and the share price will also.

Unless of course you believe the directors were buying to try and deceive others into buying ?

Also from my understanding the results and progress with take up of H1 and progress for the launch of H2 are in line still with earlier projections from brokers. As is progress with H3 so the only thing that is not in line as far as I can see is the share price

Avanti have quite clearly fallen a lot to say the least but so have many other stocks this year but that does not mean that the technology and business plan is not sound.

I will also stand by my claim that there is no real competition to satellites in remote areas and I think a lot of the ideas being banded around at the moment are pie in the sky..........who is going to run a cable to remote properties in the middle of nowhere. As for 3G or 4G just travel around to a few areas away from town and cities and see if you can find any ?

I'm sure your aware of the problems mobile companies have getting masts erected, either to close to peoples properties or can't put it there as it in an area of outstanding natural beauty.

[gorvachof] 05/10/2011 20:36

Yorgi,
Very grown up move last night. Swamping my post by spamming your own board with endless broker notes. Those broker notes will have done far more damage to the private investor than anything I or anyone else with balance has ever posted.

You talk of nervous investors being swayed by rubbish. Maybe you should look at your own posts and think what influence you may have done by constantly stating "a good time to top up" all the way down.

I can openly admit I make mistakes, generally I'll ask someone If I am unsure. Facts is what I base my research on not paid broker notes, perhaps you should do the same.

[christianf12] 05/10/2011 14:49

10 x bagger anyone, just out from UK-ANALYST:

Avanti Communications* – Full Year Results show continuing operational progress, Directors buy more shares. Re-iterate 'Strong Buy' at 252.75p; Base-case target 1,061p, Upside-case 2,182p

[yorgi] 05/10/2011 13:59

Anyone who bought any this morning at 240p is smiling thats for sure.

[christianf12] 05/10/2011 13:56

That's a very bullish move. Maybe a takeover approach coming?

[qs99] 05/10/2011 13:55

Nice reversal, hopefully any sellers out, directors buying again and through £3 in short order...? Let's see.

[yorgi] 05/10/2011 13:36

I don't think that has been posted 1356 so thanks.....Yes this way oversold now.

[1356] 05/10/2011 13:34

That was from City AM, by the way - should always name the source!

[1356] 05/10/2011 13:33

Not sure if this has been posted. "Break-up value alone in the region of 463p"

Way undervalued...

Avanti bullish despite jump in its losses.inShare.0Email .Tuesday 4th October 2011, 12:42am
TELECOMS
STEVE DINNEEN
Satellite broadband provider Avanti saw its full year losses widen as costs associated with its new satellite projects took their toll.

The firm posted a pre-tax loss of £12.7m, from £2m last year, with revenues slipping from £5.8m to £5.5m.

However, chief executive David Williams told City A.M. the results were in line with expectations and said the firm is ahead of target in booking orders for its new satellite, which began trading in April.

Avanti slipped 1.7 per cent in trading yesterday after hitting a two-year low this month. Williams said the firm has been "beaten up" by a short selling campaign, dragging the firm's shares as low as 255p. He said the firm's break-up value alone totals in the region of 463p.

Avanti expects to receive a boost when it launches its second satellite in the second quarter of next year. It will cover the Middle East and Williams expects to see high demand from government organisations.

It will also benefit from soaring demand for mobile data and the UK government's provision to include satellites in its roll-out of broadband to rural areas.

He said: "We are very confident we will be able to achieve the level of sales we have set out."

Avanti also announced it has reached an agreement to insure its second satellite £9.7m under budget. Williams expects this to calm the nerves of jumpy investors, with the insurance policy worth more than the current market cap of the firm.

It also repaid its high-cost payment in kind debt by raising the £70m through an equity placing and said it has no outstanding debt until the end of next year.

Chairman John Brackenbury said the last year has been a "landmark" for the company.

[yorgi] 05/10/2011 13:04

There is two things that are clear, the share price performance is dreadful to say the least, complete disaster, but the business is on track so in time the share price must surely start reflecting this again.

Too many nervous being influenced by all the negative talk which in my opinion is rubbish.

[garymott] 05/10/2011 13:02

I'm gobsmacked how these analysts can have such polar opposite views of AVN. I really do wonder whether some of them make it up as they go along; I wouldn't pay some of them with washers!

[geheimnis2] 05/10/2011 12:56

thanks someuwin


i wonder if the US army will be using analogue terrestrial tv frequencies for their middle east coverage

[yorgi] 05/10/2011 12:01

Well it is above where we are now anyway.