Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[seball] 08/6/2016 08:06

Another contract win. Business gaining traction. Confident in next set of results meeting guidance as management have already stated.

[weatherman] 08/6/2016 08:03

Inmarsat on Avanti - 'This significant contract extension reflects our confidence in Avanti as a strategic partner that can help us grow.'

[seball] 08/6/2016 07:55

Imarasat Extends Contract with Avanti Communications, with a Focus on Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME) Market

Avanti Communications Group plc (“Avanti” or “the Group”), a leading provider of satellite data communications services in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, announces a significant two year contract extension with Imarasat. The contract will enable growth for Imarasat in consumer, SME and enterprise markets across 14 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

[seball] 08/6/2016 07:12

When does AVN reach cash break even
"One of the most-watched market developments in the commercial satellite telecommunications market today is these new high-throughput satellites’ effect on traditional satellite capacity.

Eutelsat on May 12 issued a profit and revenue warning that was based in part on evidence that competitors’ high-throughput satellites were taking future business away from Eutelsat’s conventional widebeam satellites for certain data applications. “Market demand for high-throughput Ka-band satellite capacity across EMEA [Europe, the Middle East and Africa] is strong,� Avanti said. “Avanti continues to secure new high-quality customers, particularly in the large telco and government sectors, where sales cycles are long but contract value is high. “This success is being driven by either migration from more expensive and lower-capability legacy systems, or the ability of high-quality Ka-band networks to grow the market for new satellite applications,� Avanti said.

Operators have said high-throughput satellites should be judged by a new set of key performance indicators, and that satellite fill rate is no longer a relevant metric. Avanti, for example, has said for the past year that its fleet is between 25 percent and 30 percent full – a level that conventional satellite operators would view as intolerable. For these businesses, a fill rate of 75 percent or higher is the goal."
hxxp://spacenews.com/avanti-promises-revenue-acceleration-new-ka-band-over-europe-by-june/

Edison in their report dated 4th February 2016 pick up on this point "An average fill rate of c 40% on HYLAS 1 and HYLAS 2 is needed for cash break-even before capex, which we expect to be achieved by the
end of FY18." (www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=15771)

Edison again in their later report say that they believe that Hylas 3 expenditure is now mostly complete and that Hylas 4 is 80% complete. (

So if the analysts are correct AVN does not need 75% plus fill rates but only 40% for cashflow breakeven. On recent performance they should be achieving this capacity level in about 12 mths. The Edison report could not have anticipated a win of the size of the EE contract hence their later date.

By cashflow breakeven I mean that they are covering all outflows including interest. This is of course not suddenly achieved on day 365 as they will build towards it from day 1. The importance of this is that operational cash outflows should start dropping now and Q4 results should show this happening. If this is so the share price could move substantially from present levels as the market wakes up to the fact that AVN is actually disrupting the traditional market as it operates on an entirely different cost model.

[old thumper] 08/6/2016 06:46

A man who needs a tax loss.

However these will be more useful,

A RNS on the trading patterns is required.

A BoD revamp.

A firm statement to reassure future and current clients are doing business which will exist longer than 6 months.

Sell some bandwidth...now!

[hybrasil] 08/6/2016 05:41

Why would a man earning £1m buy £5ks worth of shares? What message does that send. I accept the chairman bought a few more. This share could I accept be great fun - either way

[weatherman] 07/6/2016 22:37

Did TW call Revington Street Holdings to go south ? ... Shareprophets looks like a bit of a racket - a group of people spreading false gossip to create a climate of fear and doubt about AVN at the same time shorting it. Its kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

[elrico] 07/6/2016 21:42

I don't know, as GLOBO, MONI, AFRE, QPP, ROSE, PHE, LGO, TRAK8, AFG,GKP, IOF, JSI, CHAL, ACHL....the list goes on and all bear case and all have gone south, oh, nearly forgot AVN!

Yes, TW can be crass, crude and bloody annoying, but you can not ignore his bear calls...well you can but the evidence suggests you will lose money.

[weatherman] 07/6/2016 21:33

Do you really expect people to treat the notorious shareprophets as a serious news source especially with a headline like that? Those slating AVN on this site are also the ones going short.

[weatherman] 07/6/2016 19:35

One of the recent sellers is GIC. A Singapore investment fund. Is fear of Brexit the reason for the ongoing fall in AVN?

[seball] 07/6/2016 18:26

I also bought more recently to average down. This will bounce from this level strongly imo

[pathai3] 07/6/2016 16:54

bought today

[elrico] 07/6/2016 16:30

I see the 3 stoogies are about :-)

[elrico] 07/6/2016 15:20

Seball.....it don't matter how many times you post a really poor research note on here, it don't get any better reading. DS has and myself have already poked holes in the report.

[weatherman] 07/6/2016 13:06

If you look at the investment of other satellite operators you see the hard ware costs a lot of dosh. Look at how much SES spent on its MEO network, and value it put on those assets with over a billion debt - 26 times earnings. AVN is now below 2 times earnings with smaller debt. The sceptics here are not being realistic.

Also the interview with Williams today suggests we should expect more contract announcements as Ka band is delivery growth in its target markets. There are customers lined for H3/4 and AVN has become recognised as an established player.

The Directors Talk site notes that Eutelsat Ka band is getting saturated in EU and may be a potential customer of Avanti 2B (although Williams did not say this). Ka band is gaining traction at the expense of traditional technology.

[jeffian] 07/6/2016 12:44

Not net tangible assets. And they're wasting assets.

[pugugly] 07/6/2016 12:44

bookbroker:- but assets are worthless unless they produce an acceptable net income after taking account of depreciation, running costs, and potential competitive risk - (imo Avanti are still in the rough - to use a golfing analogy)

[bookbroker] 07/6/2016 12:32

Ash, but it has tangible assets of $1bln!

[bwakem] 07/6/2016 12:10

Yeah I bet they will be queueing up to buy a company with $640m of debt that needs to borrow at least another $70m and is loss making.

[newtothisgame3] 07/6/2016 11:25

Avanti Communications (LSE: #AVN) webcast, Chief Executive and co-founder David Williams - 7th June 2016

[seball] 07/6/2016 10:43

Inmarsat and the likes must be looking at a takeover if share price stays this low imo.