Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[bigkahunaburger] 23/1/2015 16:33

Some facts that make the Branson story look like the nonsense it truly is:

Virgin Galactic currently does not have a launch vehicel capable of launch satellites into Orbit. This would require the rocket to fly up to about 500km. They have one planned called "LauncherOne" but today it does not exist.

The existing spaceplane can only fly a passenger to 100Km for a few seconds of weightlessness. It killed its test pilot before Christmas, and other employeess have lost their lives previously.

It looks unlikely that the spacecraft will get licensed to fly passengers any time soon.

Virgin Galactic passengers have been asking for refunds of the huge $150k deposit they paid, expecting to go into space some time around 2010

Virgin says its Launcherone would be capable of launching two satellites at a time. To Launch this fantasy constellation of 2000 satellites , (which has no money and NO spectrum rights co-ordinated) would involve one flight every day for two and a half years and cost the customer $10 billion. Arianespace, the World's best launch agency, in operation for many decades does 6 launches a year.

So, with a failed Space tourism plane, and an unfunded drawing board programme for a satellite launch vehicle, can Branson raised the billions of dollars required to spend the next 5-10 years getting to the point where a rocket might work ? It seems unlikely on the basis of this pitch and its recent record. But thats why he has come out with this wild claim that he is going to launch the biggest satellite network in the World, which has so money technical, regulatory and comemrcial barries its inmpossible to know where to begin. This is fog of war, designed to throw people off the scent of his recent failures.

[jadeticl3] 22/1/2015 22:05

I know little about satellites but I know much about pharmaceuticals, and the pure bunkam printed that I know to be incorrect causes me to read such articles with the same cynicism that I apply to Analysts forecasts.

[sg31] 22/1/2015 21:31

... "It is going to be, by far and away, the biggest satellite company in the world. If we do the full 2,000 satellites, we will have more satellites than there are currently in space. There are only 1,500 satellites up there," Sir Richard said.

He always talks a good game....how did Virgin Cola end up?

[hedgehog 100] 22/1/2015 20:31

From "THE TIMES", Thursday January 22 2015:

"Branson closing on launch of ‘biggest satellite company’

Richard Fletcher
Published at 12:01AM, January 22 2015

Sir Richard Branson is in talks with potential financial and technology backers about investing in his OneWeb business, which aims to provide internet and telephone access to remote parts of the world using satellites in a low earth orbit.

The billionaire is understood to be talking to sovereign wealth funds, private equity groups and Silicon Valley technology companies, which would invest alongside Virgin Group and its existing partner, Qualcomm, the American chipmaker.

... "It is going to be, by far and away, the biggest satellite company in the world. If we do the full 2,000 satellites, we will have more satellites than there are currently in space. There are only 1,500 satellites up there," Sir Richard said.

... Virgin hopes the network will start to deliver mobile, internet and wi-fi access at a "very competitive price" to far-flung corners of the world within three years. ..."

[chriscallen] 22/1/2015 19:41

I have read on another site that Musk has told the Wall Street Journal that the project will cost US$10bn and will take at least 5 yrs to get any results. The WSJ then raised a point about how the LEO satellites would communicate with the Earth stations as Musk favours lasers (which they seemed to believe would not work) and pointed out that Musk currently has no access to the wireless spectrum to communicate. Given the sheer volume of data that would need to be transmitted this seems despite Sidevalve's assertion to the contrary (see above) to be a real problem. SpaceX will need to negotiate with every government agency in countries over which its satellites pass and get their agreement to its transmissions: that could take some time. Also I thought there was some ruling that subsequent satellites in lower orbits had to get the consent of prior satellite owners if the presence of their satellite could impede the prior satellite owners transmissions (I think AVN have some considerable experience of this sort of litigation). If so the lawyers can safely count on some very large fees and the project will definitely take more than 5 years to become a reality. If I wanted to get into the African market I don't think I could wait that long as the passengers would have left the station on another train.

[jadeticl3] 22/1/2015 16:44

I see Cawky has reemergence. His posts are all smears and smears like a pantomime villain. Which may be why he has reimerged now the panto season is over.

[sg31] 22/1/2015 15:02

Hylas 3 was quite small it was also relatively cheap.

If the bear case is that AVN can't sell the capacity on H1 & H2 then the cancellation of H3 would have to be considered a good thing if it happens.

If H1 & H2 can be filled then the loss of H3 would be negative but it's not something AVN can control, it's not their decision.

The bears will keep trying to find negatives wherever they can, nothing so far convinces me that they are right.

[4marlin] 22/1/2015 14:49

indeed; strongest possible sell.

[simon cawkwell] 22/1/2015 08:19

And so it seems that Hylas 3 has been delayed at best. It may of course just be cancelled. Either way, this should poleaxe the share price.

[hedgehog 100] 21/1/2015 20:29

From "THE TIMES", Wednesday January 21 2015:

"Google to give Elon Musk $1bn for SpaceX internet satellites network

Alexandra Frean Washington
Published at 12:01AM, January 21 2015

He sold his first computer game at the age of 12, made a mint by selling PayPal to eBay and has ambitions to colonise Mars. Now Elon Musk is poised to accept a massive injection of cash from another colossus of technology to create a network of satellites providing low-cost global internet access.

Google’s reported investment, estimated to be worth about $1 billion, would value SpaceX at about $10 billion, according to TheInformation.com, the tech website, which said that the funding round included other investors. ..."

[chriscallen] 21/1/2015 19:43

See:
spacex story by groovykhaled
Wed, 21 Jan 2015 08:46:00 GMT


.. turned out to be hot air. spaceX is running out of money so got cash from Fidelity JUST for current operations, no mention at all or building a fleet of sats ... and why would it ? if a rocket makes started to own sats, no other sat owner would buy its rockets. total hot air : www.satelliteindustrynews.com/spacex-hype
By groovykhaled

[jadeticl3] 21/1/2015 10:19

Is there any chance that Hedgehog 100 is scaremongering? Surely not!

[jeffian] 21/1/2015 08:35

If Virgin's space thingy is flying commercially by 2016, I'll eat my underpants.

[sg31] 20/1/2015 22:35

How did Virgins last satellite launch go?

Have they ever actually launched anything?

[gekks] 20/1/2015 17:45

So we're way ahead of them

[hedgehog 100] 20/1/2015 17:27

"Branson’s Virgin, Qualcomm Back OneWeb’s Satellite Venture

January 16, 2015

British multinational conglomerate Virgin Group, led by billionaire Richard Branson, and California-based semiconductor company Qualcomm, led by Steven Mollenkopf, are investing in a multi-billion-dollar initiative by satellite-internet company OneWeb, founded by Greg Wyler, to provide global satellite-based Internet access, according to NBC News.

OneWeb’s satellites will be put into orbit by LauncherOne system, a small satellite launch system by Branson’s commercial spaceflight company Virgin Galactic. Wyler has been seeking support for his previous satellite venture O3b Networks from potential backers including American multinational software company Google, led by Larry Page, and Elon Musk, the billionaire founder of American space transport services company Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX)."

[jeffian] 20/1/2015 14:03

This industry seems prone to attracting big talkers and 'visionaries'. I'm not sure we haven't got one, but at least he's managed to get 2 sats up there and functioning. Just needs to sell the space now.

[bigkahunaburger] 20/1/2015 12:41

Greg Wyler is at it again, spinning for all he is worth with a silly announcement about a constellation of hundreds of satellites.

www.satelliteindustrynews.com/wyler-spins/

copy and paste into browser if needed

[hedgehog 100] 19/1/2015 21:03

"Google could be funding SpaceX's satellite internet

By Sean O'Kane on January 19, 2015 12:40 pm

After introducing the idea of creating a satellite-based internet back in November, Elon Musk went into further detail last week on his $10 billion plan to build out a network over the next five years. Now, The Information is reporting that Google might be a main investor.

According an unnamed source in the article, Google has agreed to value SpaceX north of $10 billion, and the inclusion of other investors would make for a big round of funding. It would be another of a handful of network projects the company is invested in — most notable of which is Project Loon.

Over the last few years Google was working on a similar satellite project with industry expert Greg Wyler, who left to form a company backed by Qualcomm and Virgin called OneWeb. (At one point last year OneWeb, then known as WorldVu, was rumored to be partnering with SpaceX.) That project — which Richard Branson is chipping in some of his own money to fund — is based around the technique of linking the satellites over specific radio spectrum. Musk's new idea, conversely, would reportedly connect the satellites with a laser-based system.

The micro-satellites would orbit the Earth at an altitude of just 750 miles, far below the typical satellite orbit of 22,000 miles. The biggest advantages to putting the internet in orbit — as opposed to terrestrial options like fiber — are speed and coverage. "The speed of light is 40 percent faster in the vacuum of space than it is for fiber," says Musk. The expansive network would also allow for everything from improved coverage in rural areas to, one day, connecting us to Mars."

[jadeticl3] 09/1/2015 10:50

I recall TW saying, when price had fallen below £7 "these shares cannot be worth anything less than £10".

His pal at RHPS Tom B was also very very Bullish. All the reasons why this could not fail were produced by these two.

Why would we take any notice of them???

[malcolmmm] 08/1/2015 22:53

TW used to ramp these at around £7 with a target of around £16, have noted that a fund is shorting these
Ennismore European Smaller Companies Fund