Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[geheimnis2] 02/11/2011 13:09

s

how do you know?

[salamanda74] 02/11/2011 13:06

By the looks of things , Mr Cawkwell has closed his Avanti short. Things must be looking up :-)
S

[divinausa1] 01/11/2011 00:50

hope we can hold onto £3 or its back to £2.50...

[gorvachof] 31/10/2011 23:32

Colva thanks for that. My workings allow for the fill rate being considered 100% when Peak Utilization is reached (85% of the total capacity, by your quote).
i.e The Avanti H2 service launch taget is 25 percent of peak utilization (85% of H2s total capacity).
Re:colva - 24 Oct'11 - 13:42 - 7025 of 7090

Geh, The agreement is for Avantis "Business Internet Continuity" product, not cellular backhaul in its true sence? Or are you saying the Eq Dev note expands on this? Still positive nevertheless. :)
www.avantiplc.com/products/business-internet-continuity
Re:Geheimnis2 - 31 Oct'11 - 10:54 - 7087 of 7090

[bigbigdave] 31/10/2011 19:50

Yes, with gritted teeth I've added a few more today.
Just a wall of worry to climb.

[cockneyrebel] 31/10/2011 12:00

A little pull back here is good imo, the chart has stayed intact and needs a bit of momentum to break out - easier to do off of a small dip imo.

Should be AVN's week. Stuck them in my stockchallenge for this month.

CR

[cestnous] 31/10/2011 11:51

This the Equity development note out today.


Avanti Communications is the only licensed Fixed Satellite Services operator headquartered in the UK. Avanti sells satellite broadband services to telecoms companies which use them to supply residential, enterprise and institutional users.

Avanti's announcement on 27 October 2011 of a framework agreement with BT around the provision of Business Internet Continuity (BIC) is significant in that it strongly validates Avanti's product. It is also a milestone for Avanti in that BT is the first global telco to sign up for a contract for Avanti's disaster recovery product as part of their overall product offering. This validation can be expected to lead to orders from other major telcos.

This represents a huge market opportunity as companies become more reliant on internet connectivity and hence impacted by outages.

There is also clear evidence that the short position in Avanti shares has been reducing significantly recently (most notably in the last week, and by around 1.3m since early August 2011): a short squeeze may develop.

We retain our forecasts and a consequent fair value per share target of 1319p, attainable as the underlying business case is proven.

[geheimnis2] 31/10/2011 10:54

worth reading the new equity development note - mostly around CB and BT - looking very promising!

[peterpowell21] 31/10/2011 07:55

i have a big chunk of these that i brought over a year ago,i am well well down.
i brought these for a long term investment so not to worry.
wish i had the chance to buy them now,at this price, ha ho.
risk reward now looks very compelling.
good luck all

[chrissey] 30/10/2011 23:49

good post CR, I'm an AVN supporter, I know I should be buying more at this price, I just can't get my finger on the buy button yet!

Good luck all holders!

[bigbigdave] 30/10/2011 06:36

Yep, and I'm hungry :o)

Nice analysis of AVN by fingers xxd

[restassured] 29/10/2011 21:21

Fear and greed.Fear and greed.

We have had a almost a year of fear,here comes greed.

[cockneyrebel] 29/10/2011 11:17

Well chrissy, I'm as far away from being a fan of Tom Winnifroth as you can get but have a read of this:

"Currently trading at 314.25p, Avanti Communications is capitalised at £252.42 million - a 23% premium to net tangible assets as at 30th June 2011 (which does not even include its orbital licenses). Given today's news, I continue to be confident that the company will deliver sales of around £29 million and pre-tax profits of £6.8 million (earnings per share of 8p) for the current financial year (ended 30th June 2012) and sales of £125.4 million and profits of £36.1 million (earnings per share of 34.9p) for the following year. This equates to a prospective PE ratio of 9 times financial year 2013 earnings - and is a compelling valuation for a business that has only just entered into its first full-year of earnings, occupies a commanding position in a high value niche market and has a strong balance sheet. As such, my stance remains "strong buy"."

If he is anything like correct, these are going to be growing sales at 300% going forward and will have earnings growth of of 300% too. They have bounced on the price from where they split with the old business. The directors have been buying decent amounts.

I'm not sure how you see the stock as excessively over hyped. They have cash of £65m, orders of £230m and a pipeline of negotiations ongoing of £400m and they are trading @ £260m mkt cap.

I think with stocks like this, people see the potential and the share price starts to soar. It then gets ahead of itself as the crowd get onboard and the dreamers drive the price too high. I suspect a reality check started at £7 and the shares stared to drift back to find their true level. I reckon that true level might have been around the 450p mark where it bounced back to at the beginning of July and it would have traded there and taken on a new uptend at that level but as bad luck would have it we then had the market tanking where everything lost 20% more or less and with ANV already in a fall it continued to sell off as punters then capitulated. Punters conjour up all sortsof fears when the herd mentality takes hold imo and selling begats selling imo.

So the bottom was in at the end of Sep on three supports imo - the general market bottom, the long term support and the orginal split price from Avanti as it was.

440p was the level it was finding back in July when the market tanked, in fact it made it's first major higher high then and was set to return to an uptrend then imo. I think it will at least test 440p again before too long and migh go on to break that in the coming months imo.



If you turned this chart upside down I'd be dead worried these were going to see a massive sell off here and if it fell and lower I'd expect big selling. The reverse is likely to happen when the chart is this way round and a break out will see very strong buying imo.

When you look at the longer term chart, once these do break out I wouldn't be surpried for AVN to get back to that £7 within a year and even go a lot higher if markets turn more bullish and the excited ones drive the price again - shares like this are always driven by the overly excited and the overly scared imo.

But for now I'm watching the chart here. I've bought a decent chunk and when the chart breaks out I'll be adding rather quickly.

All just my opinion of course, do your own research and make your own investment decissions of course.

CR

[chrissey] 28/10/2011 21:38

well CR, 440p or so will get us back closer to where we were in mid 2010, before Xbox I launch and with the 'blow up on the launch pad' risk factored in too!

We are so far off now, wider market sentiment cannot be held accountable for this, I'm still convinced the stock was excessively overhyped, I'm thinking 750p-800p or so by the end of 2012 as best case and that's with 2 Xboxes in the sky!

Guess we still have the possibility of a Xbox II launch failure but lets not think about that as the insured value seems to underpin the price more than the business growth expectations.

[cockneyrebel] 28/10/2011 16:00

440p the test next test when this breaks out imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 28/10/2011 15:59

Bounced off long term support, now putting in a reverse head and shoulders imo:

[yorgi] 28/10/2011 11:22

Yes I'm sure they are Jeffian but this is additional quite I'm quite sure and it can only bode well for AVN and give confidence to both present and any potential new investors.

[geheimnis2] 28/10/2011 11:14

fair enough

the relevance is that it is CB and it is BT who are apparently quite big

[jeffian] 28/10/2011 11:12

I understand that, G, but several of the comments above (including the TW quote) seemed to think that the fact it was BT was relevant and I was just pointing out that BT are already a customer.

[geheimnis2] 28/10/2011 11:07

jeffian

this is the first cellular backhaul relationship so far disclosed - there is a big ambition for CB

[jeffian] 28/10/2011 11:04

"...having such a big name company can only be considered positive."

I certainly hope so, but haven't we already got a contract with BT? I think the evidence that big telecoms players are prepared to buy the service already exists.

[yorgi] 28/10/2011 08:56

One or two Geheimnis :-)

[restassured] 28/10/2011 08:56

We want this stock to climb a wall of worry.

Nobody believes it.

Very bullish


To Hylas 2 and beyond!!