Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 23/2/2011 11:08

I really do think TW should now write an open letter or report and answer what Cawkwell has posted.

[yorgi] 23/2/2011 10:59

I must admit I don't Plasterkay what was it ?

Thanks for that posting M&S.

[via con] 23/2/2011 10:55

out of interest what rumour was that plasterkay ?

[plasterkay] 23/2/2011 10:49

Who remembers the 10th March last year when it lost 17% in one day? all on a false rumour.

[marksnsparkle] 23/2/2011 10:49

Some more information for you (highlights the error in Simon Cawkwell post)

Hylas 1 can offer bandwidth in 3 ways ....

1 Hosted Network Operator - Pure Bandwidth
• MHz satellite bandwidth
• Operator manages their own VSAT (Very small aperture terminal) hub in the Avanti Teleport
While offering the customer the greatest degree of freedom, there is a capex requirement as the customer has to install their own hub.

2 Guaranteed Virtual Network Operator (GVNO)
• Guaranteed bandwidth
• Control services and margins
• Operator manages using the Avanti OSS
The most common option, requiring no capex, and allowing traffic shaping

3 Shared Virtual Network Operator (SVNO)
• GB packages from shared pool
• The operator monitors and manages using the Avanti OSS
• A variety of packages available with speed up to 10 Mbps

Eutelsat's existing satellite as quoted in Simon Cawkwell post can only offer bandwidth in the 3rd way, i.e. a 10 Mbps packaging to residential customers

I'm not taking sides (I have no position) ... but its worth pointing out that Simon's post contains a very large error and it is from this error that he goes on to make his bear case

[yorgi] 23/2/2011 10:46

What would also be good to see would be TW's answer to EK's comments.

[portman88] 23/2/2011 10:45

Well no ones prising my little golden tickets off me, and this guy has not got the best of reputations at all, you only have to google him to see!

[yorgi] 23/2/2011 10:44

Well we now know who was behind superg1 !

[restassured] 23/2/2011 10:41

14th feb 2011

Broker Daniel Stewart points to EchoStar's $2bn, including debt, purchase of Hughes Communications as giving an indication of Avanti's true value.

Hughes is also involved in Ka band and has bought capacity outside of the US from Avanti. Daniel Stewart reckons that a similar valuation to Hughes would underpin its target price of 2525p a share – still four times the current share price.

[restassured] 23/2/2011 10:39

Average target price of £16.74 from four brokers.



It will be interesting to see what happens with the expected newsflow over the next several weeks.

[restassured] 23/2/2011 10:37

From Questor

The majority of City analysts covering the stock are extremely upbeat about Avanti's prospects. Of the five analysts monitored by Bloomberg, one has a "sell" rating, but the four analysts with "buy" ratings on the shares have an average price target of £16.74, more than 170pc higher than the current share price

[someuwin] 23/2/2011 10:37

Well, this new revelation from SC (EK) has not been published on his t1ps diary yet. Normally updates lunchtime wednesday - so could see further selling later today.

[yorgi] 23/2/2011 10:36

I've just checked in, so it is Cawkwell behind it then. Most interesting as others pointed out at odds with TW and several others and quite likely behind the gang !

[marksnsparkle] 23/2/2011 10:36

Without taking sides I will point out an error in Simon Cawkwell post ...

The whole point of a Ka band satellite like Avanti's Hylas 1 is that it can provide bandwidth more flexibly than old satellite technologies

So running as a Shared Virtual Network Operator (SVNO) the telecommunications operator takes bandwidth from Hylas 1 and acts as a reseller of broadband to provide a 10 Mbps service to its customers

So if Simon's argument revolves around Avanti only being able to provide a 2mb service then there is obviously an error in his informants information

Ka band (Hylas 1) is a step forward in satellite technology not a step back :-)

[tsmith2] 23/2/2011 10:26

Anyone know when SC penned his thoughts..

[dougie471] 23/2/2011 10:22

Cawkwell is well known in the city for targeting companies for bear raids. setting up the like of superg on all bulletin boards to deramp a share and sending out negativity and sowing seads of doubt while cawkwell is selling it down. using the current low volume opportunity for doing this causes the big drop.

It turns out that for most of 2003, Cawkwell had been betting that shares in the property company Regus would fall. But in the week we went to see him, Regus had come out of Chapter 11 in the US and the shares had soared by around 50 per cent. Oops!

[restassured] 23/2/2011 10:22

The order book speaks for itself...




Current order book of GBP229 million at strong average selling prices

Pipeline of transactions in negotiation for HYLAS 1 and 2 worth GBP389m

The combined order book and pipeline amounts to £618 million.

Furthermore they are in advanced negotiations with several customers for hylas 3 .



"we decided to seek pre sales contracts from customers on the HYLAS 3 satellite, which can then be used to finance the satellite in the debt market, protecting shareholders interest. Such financings are time consuming and complex, but well suited to a business like Avanti which has very long term assets and aspirations. I am pleased to report that we are in advanced negotiations on several significant pre-sales contracts which should enable us access efficient capital and we hope to update the market soon."

[malcolmmm] 23/2/2011 10:21

EK is a life long friend of TW and writes a diary on T1ps.com which has a large holding of AVN in one of the funds. EK is at odds with Tom on this one,you takes your choice but it proves that they are independent, of which I take note.

[bubbleandleek] 23/2/2011 10:18

yup, raises some interesting points....just like he has in ASOS.

[malcolmmm] 23/2/2011 10:04

well I sold for now, have made a 3k or 4k on the way up but was hoping for much more, funny thing is that most of the tip sheets are ramping this like crazy, if they are wrong a lot of subscribers wont be very happy.

[someuwin] 23/2/2011 10:03

Hmmm - EK raises some interesting points.

[restassured] 23/2/2011 09:58

Note how Cawkwell always uses the same tactics.Anonymously written letters.

Are they afraid to put their name to it?

[malcolmmm] 23/2/2011 09:57

hmmm thanks Simon for the above, it will be interesting to hear what Tom thinks about your analysis

[restassured] 23/2/2011 09:56

Here come the gang.

[the big fella] 23/2/2011 09:55

Excellent post which may bring a sense of reality to this thread.