Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[wendsworth] 25/11/2010 10:15

yorgi : Looks more like 600p rather than 700p.

I anticipated that MMs would manipulate this stock prior and post launch.

[2vdm] 25/11/2010 10:15

deadsceptical. fair comment, so if you believe as I do that the launch is successful and specualtors sell to say 750p, a safe strategy would be to sell 20% and use the cash to buy on any dips below that figure between now and spring 2011, when no doubt the interest will be picking up again, if for no other reason that AVN will have already achieved success once.

[adorling] 25/11/2010 10:14

If you are investor just sit tight and enjoy the exceptional growth over the next few years from AVN which invariably will see many ups and downs but I am sure the trend will be up over time given the exceptional demand for this product. Speculating/short term trading is just too stressful!

[peetle] 25/11/2010 10:08

I've seen enough shares expected to go up/down on anticipated news and have then done the exact opposite to be cautious about predicting £8 and a mass exodus on Monday. After all, it's hardly going to go up if the traders are bailing out and the MMs know all about this sort of behaviour.

There isn't just the launch to look forward to either, there's geostationary transfer and in orbit checkout. Presumably this will happen over the weekend, or at least it will be Monday before we get a clear indication that the satellite will behave.

Anyway, I've only a few hundred tucked away but I anticipate great things over the longer term.

[goneawol] 25/11/2010 10:06

jcs,
Hylas 2 isn't due until spring 2012.

[bonosr7] 25/11/2010 10:01

could be a sell the news reaction here

Institutional investors are not that stupid that they will all pile in just on a successful launch

they will know that at some point AVN will want to raise capital for their grandiose plans so can wait for the liquidity available from a placing

and it has been ramped to high heaven to retail investors who'll all be looking to exit to the 'greater fool'

[johncsimpson] 25/11/2010 09:57

Deadsceptical - 25 Nov'10 - 09:48 - 1371 of 1372

I can see what you're saying but there were an awful lot of smaller automatic trades indicating that people sold at a 'down' price i.e. a stop loss was triggered. Now I'm not into the mysteries of how the mms (or markets themselves, for that matter), work let's say I'm sceptical.

But big rise if all goes well tomorrow and I agree that lots will 'trade out' sometime on Monday and then wait to get back in. Hylas 2 is set for early next year if I remember correctly, so the 'hot money' could well disappear until that launch date is announced.

[2vdm] 25/11/2010 09:48

Let's assume this hovers up/down the 600p mark over the next 30 hours.What conservative price would the price be on Mon morning assuming (and I have) that the launch is successful? fwiw I am expecting 800p. Any views?

[deadsceptical] 25/11/2010 09:48

The pattern for this share is both clear and expected. Looking back over the last ten days there have been a number of large sell transactions in nice round sums of 25,000 shares. On one day within a minute there was a sale and buy of exactly the same amount of shares at around £600,000. These movements are not marketmakers nor are they investors. It has been clear that this share is a make or break on the events of tomorrow so the speculators have been in big time since the launch date was announced.

Now take the man who sold 2x25,000 today at over £600. If he bought at around £400 he has made a guaranteed profit of £100,000 against the possibility of a large loss if there is a fail in the launch.

For someone dashing in and out of shares his tactic is sound. As investors our problem is to see the wood beyond the trees. The launch is highly likely to be a success with a nice rise in price also likely so I shall hang on.

There will be a problem on Monday because other speculators who are not investors will bail out on the price rise on the success of the launch. My guess is that there is another huge profit to be made if we can estimate when the hot money people have done their selling on Monday or next week and then pile in at the bottom. Any ideas on how we can spot that ??

[share_shark] 25/11/2010 09:46

An excellent link for new investors. A great deal of info contained here.

[johncsimpson] 25/11/2010 09:22

Agree with 1363 Volvo. This happened with RKH back in June which fell from 250p plus to under 120p in the space of 10 mins only to recover within the hour.

[volvo] 25/11/2010 09:20

It could certainly be up significantly but Wednesday next week and I am talking 50pc from here.

Sucessful launch , sucessful news, new contracts certainly in place post launch.

Interesting thats for sure in the following 7 days.

[melody9999] 25/11/2010 09:16

Yeah too right Volvo. The MMs have seen the opportunity to shake weak holders out - and quite successful too. Could well be up by end of day.

[volvo] 25/11/2010 09:15

Someone wanted to sell a few shares and amatuerly sold them of the book, hence the snowballing effect of an illiquid stock.

If your on your game this how you make real money though.

Trading on others stupidity.

[ethics_gradient] 25/11/2010 09:13

wtf happened there??

[2vdm] 25/11/2010 09:12

Nerves or what!?. Either you believe in its success or not (see post 1318). Simples!

[togo2] 25/11/2010 09:11

Update -offer price now showing @602.

[johnrxx99] 25/11/2010 09:10

Had a limit on, excellent

[volvo] 25/11/2010 09:09

Got 5k at 589p, happy to see it out.

[togo2] 25/11/2010 09:09

Why the big drop on bid price 545at the moment.No online offer price available via Hargreaves Lansdown!

[johncsimpson] 25/11/2010 09:08

HardRider8

You've done well to add. I can't buy on line and now back at 600p ish

[skier1941] 25/11/2010 09:07

Just a vigorous tree shake . . . I hope.

[portman88] 25/11/2010 09:07

Very big tree shake.