Avacta Share Discussion Threads

[cameraobscura] 26/6/2024 06:42

Cash burn at £5m a month with £35m in the bank. Go figure.

[patio58] 26/6/2024 06:21

Excellent update, the science is taking care of itself, cost cutting in buildings, forward thinking with key appointments for monetary growth, blue day incoming.

[fieldhouse] 26/6/2024 06:11

Very interesting positive update .
Very disappointed to see that non of our scientific expert trolls are not appointed to the scientific advisory board !

[rajraj b] 26/6/2024 05:40

Have a look at this link. Much more up-to-date for you, only 6 months old. There's no denying ADC's are performing a great job helping in the fight for cancer with around 15 being approved. But they have their limitations, one being toxicity. They are also incredibly difficult and expensive to get through trials. 'Animal trials in cynomolgus monkeys (closest non human primates) showed ADC to be safe only to be fatal in humans.'Regardless, ADC have a place in the fight against cancer. To assume that big pharma are not interested in other solutions is daft. They will be watching the results of these AVCT trials with interest. https://www.tempobioscience.com/the-promises-and-problems-with-adcs/

[the cronk] 25/6/2024 11:57

I see the other thread has removed the charts at the top of the page, which makes it useless.

No point in denying it, the price is where it is and trying to cover up the chart will simply make people look somewhere else, such as this thread or even on Yahoo.


If you're scared to look t the price or the chart, you shouldn't be invested, IMHO.

[amanitaangelicus] 25/6/2024 11:41

Raj ...are you trapped in time? Vesta curried rice has long been superseded. ( Ps it is an s)

[jaknife] 25/6/2024 11:12

Rajraj b,

1. Around about 15 of the ADCs have been approved by the FDA - Avacta are playing catch up!

2. You're quoting a generic article about ADCs from two years ago. Do you have anything specific about the ADCs that have subsequently been approved by the FDA? The whole point of them is that they use an existing cytotoxic drug that doesn't have the toxic side-effects that Dox has.

No one in big pharma is interested in using Dox as their drug payload. The car analogy is that no one is interested in taking diesel engines and reducing the pollution by 80%; everyone wants EVs instead. No one in big pharma is interested in taking Dox and reducing its toxicity by 80% - they simply want to use a pre-existing less toxic cytotoxic and deliver that in a targeted manner.

3. You haven't answered the question:

How on earth do you think Avacta is going to "change" the way modern cancer treatment is delivered?

What is it that you think that Avacta has that big pharma doesn't already have (and is ignoring)?

JakNife

[amanitaangelicus] 25/6/2024 10:01

Raj ...so Agent Smith overpromised, underdelivered eh? Where was that rnsed? Why do you say he.s underdelivered? I thought everything was fine, going swimmingly. I put it to you, things aren.t fine, far from it. Watch this space. Smith has gone quietly, too quietly. I.m sure things will be cleared up, revealed soon. I smell desperation. Raj - you.re a blagger, a trader - you flip in and out. You disappear for days,weeks on end, while you punt elsewhere. Hope it works out for you. I fear you.ve been trapped yet again. Another Tickboo type unfortunately. GL bud. Jak knows.

[rajraj b] 25/6/2024 09:38

The whole point of PRES|cion is that it makes the unavoidable avoidable ( in respect to toxicity).

[rajraj b] 25/6/2024 09:36

Read this link and then you may understand the limitation and hurdles faced by ADC's"One of the major challenges of ADCs is unavoidable toxic side effects, which is caused by the premature release of cytotoxic small molecules into the bloodstream. "Off-target, off-tumor"-related adverse events appear to dominate the toxicity profile of most existing ADCs. A meta-analysis of available data revealed that different drug-loaded small molecules have distinct toxicity profiles independent of the target antigen."https://www.biochempeg.com/article/243.html#:~:text=One%20of%20the%20major%20challenges,profile%20of%20most%20existing%20ADCs.

[jaknife] 25/6/2024 08:24

Rajraj b,

"PREC|sion tech is also potentially a game changer. The pipeline of assets AVCT hold behind this can revolutionise the safe delivery of extremely toxic chemo (much more aggressive and effective than Doxorubicin) and change the way modern cancer treatment is delivered."

How on earth do you think Avacta is going to "change" the way modern cancer treatment is delivered? Big Pharma already has cancer therapies that target cancer, eg:

Antibody–drug conjugate


At best Avacta might "catch up" with big pharma. But they have nothing that is new that might "change" the way modern cancer treatment is delivered.

JakNife

[rajraj b] 25/6/2024 04:07

PREC|sion tech is also potentially a game changer. The pipeline of assets AVCT hold behind this can revolutionise the safe delivery of extremely toxic chemo (much more aggressive and effective than Doxorubicin) and change the way modern cancer treatment is delivered. What also makes AVCT's product extremely desirable is it is economical and quick to manufacture. It's also very stable once made. A very important attribute that some developing alternatives lack. As for my position here, I'm long. Always have been and continue to add when funds permit. Don't worry about me Amaaan. You worry about yourself. And why are you so interested in where AS is right now? Who cares? AS was sacked because he over promised and under delivered. Simples! You're a smart chap. You can work it out. There's new management in the house now so stop looking back. Eyes should be looking forward. That's where the interest now lies.

[amanitaangelicus] 24/6/2024 13:06

Raj ...affimers are old tech now. Gene editing probs one of the biggest gamechangers today. mRNA/ vaccines, etc dragged it along. Google AI working out protein biological chem structures in the blink of an eye ,rather than 5-7 yrs will speed things up. ( Might be ibm ,I forget)Ps where.s Smith? Did he have to return to Gallifrey for some time warped business?Just cant see much happening here now. Smith leaving his baby ,the final straw. Raj a trader, probs trapped at much higher price mind. Poor soul.

[the cronk] 24/6/2024 10:25

WsM,

Well one well researched post, and one highly speculative post in my opinion.

I don't recall too many 100 baggers over the years, so the odds of that occuring are very long indeed, IMO.

In fact if they made a significant breakthrough I think they would be taken out PDQ by a major pharma well before that.

Death spiral conversions normally result in lower and lower share prices and increasing dilution.

[hamidahamida] 24/6/2024 09:55

Nicely drifting towards 20p and below

[wsm812] 24/6/2024 08:28

Two very informative, opposing and mature posts from JakNife and Rajraj b. You both get a thumbs up!

If only all ADVFN discussions were like this! hahaha

[1chrism] 23/6/2024 18:10

A useful reply. It helps sometimes to remind yourself that ADVFN is free and as such so can be the value of some opinions herein.

[rajraj b] 22/6/2024 22:40

So you believe these large pharma companies are not on the look out for new or improved ways of delivering cancer killing technology? You think because they've invested in whichever tech they've got they're not interested in anything else out there? Now that is a very naive outlook. If there is technology out there that can deliver improved cancer killing ability and can deliver it with massively reduced toxicity, big pharma will be all over it. The market is too big for them to ignore opportunities like this. Look at the revolution taking place in the automobile industry. The move from internal combustion to fully electric/hybrid engines has caused companies who have already made massive investments with ICE switch to newer electric tech. Both can be run in tandem as well

[mirabeau] 21/6/2024 17:50

excerpt


Conclusion

Historical metrics and the danger of “a story” don’t really explain what could happen next here. It’s clear there are risks but also potential of enormous upside. Writing off as “a story” ignores that companies get bought out and that the scientific results, whilst early, are very promising. Quality management often determine a successful company and we can see both commercial and research quality - and track records - at Avacta.

Dilution extends the odds and reduces the return. But if the return is parabolic when does a little less matter? The answer is - given that you are taking a risk - when the return divided by the probability exceeds the cost of losses.

For example, if you consider a 100X upside is possible given the market size and impact of a technology which enables precision guided delivery using markers like FAP. Then if you consider there’s a 10% probability of success. Then statistically speaking you should be able to tolerate a 90% loss before this is statistically a failure. That loss could be a loss of share price or a loss of dilution. If 100% of the remaining bond were converted into shares at 45p then £35.7m is 80m shares…. that’s a further 18% dilution. Yet focus and fixation is made on avoiding dilution. The mathematics of full dilution of the debt actually improves the NAV from 13.2p to 18.9p a share. (£47.5m NAV + £35.7m / 440m shares)

If you simply give yourself a margin of safety then you can set a lower pain threshold of loss.

Regards,

The Oak Bloke.


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Many thanks to the oak bloke...this is top quality research on AVCT from today

[amanitaangelicus] 21/6/2024 16:00

Tomzi ... i really dont mind which way the share price goes at the mo. No skin. Not many small pharmas survive when the main man disappears for no apparent reason. Rinse, repeat ...sp up, so I can only assumea/ good news inbound,insiders buyingb/ Peel H getting the share price for convi conversion dump.c/ ii buying Until the real reason is known why Smith went,I.ll wait. Pretty simple really.Good to see Raj back for a punt. Where.s Chesh gone and the ramptastic team? Whats the latest from Myles? Optimistic?Havent got the energy. Way too busy these days. More Air miles than Branson. Awful.Enjoy ur weekend.Ps Southgate must go - utterly useless, dull. Players swanning around. Only look decent half of em bcos they play in gd English teams stuff with silken skilled foreigners. Scotland - wtf. One of the weakest Jock teams i.ve ever seen. Enjoy.

[robers98] 21/6/2024 12:28

Positive end to the week ahead of the AGM next week.

[divmad] 21/6/2024 10:53

Are they the same black horses you see on TV all the time, all at sea?

[rajraj b] 21/6/2024 09:07

You can lead a Blackhorse to water, but you can't make him drink.