Avacta Share Discussion Threads

[hamidahamida] 24/6/2024 10:55

Nicely drifting towards 20p and below

[wsm812] 24/6/2024 09:28

Two very informative, opposing and mature posts from JakNife and Rajraj b. You both get a thumbs up!

If only all ADVFN discussions were like this! hahaha

[1chrism] 23/6/2024 19:10

A useful reply. It helps sometimes to remind yourself that ADVFN is free and as such so can be the value of some opinions herein.

[rajraj b] 22/6/2024 23:40

So you believe these large pharma companies are not on the look out for new or improved ways of delivering cancer killing technology? You think because they've invested in whichever tech they've got they're not interested in anything else out there? Now that is a very naive outlook. If there is technology out there that can deliver improved cancer killing ability and can deliver it with massively reduced toxicity, big pharma will be all over it. The market is too big for them to ignore opportunities like this. Look at the revolution taking place in the automobile industry. The move from internal combustion to fully electric/hybrid engines has caused companies who have already made massive investments with ICE switch to newer electric tech. Both can be run in tandem as well

[mirabeau] 21/6/2024 18:50

excerpt


Conclusion

Historical metrics and the danger of “a story” don’t really explain what could happen next here. It’s clear there are risks but also potential of enormous upside. Writing off as “a story” ignores that companies get bought out and that the scientific results, whilst early, are very promising. Quality management often determine a successful company and we can see both commercial and research quality - and track records - at Avacta.

Dilution extends the odds and reduces the return. But if the return is parabolic when does a little less matter? The answer is - given that you are taking a risk - when the return divided by the probability exceeds the cost of losses.

For example, if you consider a 100X upside is possible given the market size and impact of a technology which enables precision guided delivery using markers like FAP. Then if you consider there’s a 10% probability of success. Then statistically speaking you should be able to tolerate a 90% loss before this is statistically a failure. That loss could be a loss of share price or a loss of dilution. If 100% of the remaining bond were converted into shares at 45p then £35.7m is 80m shares…. that’s a further 18% dilution. Yet focus and fixation is made on avoiding dilution. The mathematics of full dilution of the debt actually improves the NAV from 13.2p to 18.9p a share. (£47.5m NAV + £35.7m / 440m shares)

If you simply give yourself a margin of safety then you can set a lower pain threshold of loss.

Regards,

The Oak Bloke.


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Many thanks to the oak bloke...this is top quality research on AVCT from today

[amanitaangelicus] 21/6/2024 17:00

Tomzi ... i really dont mind which way the share price goes at the mo. No skin. Not many small pharmas survive when the main man disappears for no apparent reason. Rinse, repeat ...sp up, so I can only assumea/ good news inbound,insiders buyingb/ Peel H getting the share price for convi conversion dump.c/ ii buying Until the real reason is known why Smith went,I.ll wait. Pretty simple really.Good to see Raj back for a punt. Where.s Chesh gone and the ramptastic team? Whats the latest from Myles? Optimistic?Havent got the energy. Way too busy these days. More Air miles than Branson. Awful.Enjoy ur weekend.Ps Southgate must go - utterly useless, dull. Players swanning around. Only look decent half of em bcos they play in gd English teams stuff with silken skilled foreigners. Scotland - wtf. One of the weakest Jock teams i.ve ever seen. Enjoy.

[robers98] 21/6/2024 13:28

Positive end to the week ahead of the AGM next week.

[divmad] 21/6/2024 11:53

Are they the same black horses you see on TV all the time, all at sea?

[rajraj b] 21/6/2024 10:07

You can lead a Blackhorse to water, but you can't make him drink.

[blackhorse23] 21/6/2024 01:30

Placing & paying bills every year AND REPEAT

[blackhorse23] 21/6/2024 01:29

Any future for this company??

[tomzimerman] 20/6/2024 17:47

Someone's touchy today ha ha not so funny when the shoes on the other foot, expect more tomorrow

[tomzimerman] 20/6/2024 17:19

How's that short looking today.. some real stupid comments of late here

[rajraj b] 20/6/2024 16:22

Now a cash repayment would certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons.

[fieldhouse] 20/6/2024 16:21

Divmad ,yes,added a few today :
I think the next loan conversion may be in cash ! That would signal confidence!

[1347] 20/6/2024 15:53

Yes ready for that next payday death spiral loan conversion. Rinse and repeat...

[robers98] 20/6/2024 13:48

On the rise now.

[divmad] 20/6/2024 13:28

Fieldhouse, famous last words, but I think today's rns and the share price action represent a turning point in the cycle for Avct. If you're going to get back in, now is the time.

[patio58] 20/6/2024 12:50

Serous buying going on this lunchtime , over due rebound is starting to happen.

[rajraj b] 20/6/2024 08:37

Smith was poor at the negotiating table. As a result he had to go. Quite simple really. Suprised you haven't figured this out already.

[amanitaangelicus] 20/6/2024 08:29

Smith.s bezzy mates getting slowly replaced ... still just full of fluff news releases. What did Smith do that made him leave his baby? Have a lovely day les ostriches.