Agree, your calcs look reasonable and conservative and a good guide. Better than pie in the sky ramped numbers. Looks positive for the year and beyond. Thanks for doing the calc |
No.
Clearly there will be variations eg inflation, solar power, production etc.
As you can see from the calculations I made the conservative assumption that AISC remains the same.
Given the company's guidance on production remaining roughly the same and with inflation and solar cancelling one another to some extent, I don't believe this assumption will be too far wide of the mark.
NB. Copper briefly touched $4.60/lb this morning so, on that score, we are already ahead of my Q2 estimate. |
Did you factor in falling costs due to solar coming online |
And leveraged by possible extra production from Tuoro. |
Nice margins, and before the solar farm brings our energy costs down too.. :o) |
Thanks Brockwl2.
Edit to my previous post:-
Q2 2024 (assuming similar AISC)
Current price of Cu = $4.56/Lb
Margin = $1.47/Lb
Increase in margin = 107% |
Your q2 margin should be 1.47/lb. |
Yes indeed. But not only for Q2 but for the FY2024.
My superficial take on the effect that increasing Cu prices may have on margin:-
FY 2023.
AISC = $3.09/Lb
Average price of Cu = $3.80/Lb
Margin = $0.71/Lb
Q2 2024 (assuming similar AISC)
Current price of Cu = $4.56/Lb
Margin = $1.37/Lb
Increase in margin = 93%
FY 2024 (assuming similar AISC)
Assuming average price of Cu $4.75/Lb -> Margin $1.66/Lb -> 134% increase
Assuming average price of Cu $5.00/Lb -> Margin $1.91/Lb -> 169% increase
Throw in potential extra production coming from Touro in 2025 and the Maths becomes even more compelling.
Is this fanciful thinking? I wouldn't bet on it. |
Very odd to be down when CU is pumping - our next qtr results should be stellar with current prices. |
Thanks. Is that why the price is dropping? |
Estienne
Monday 29/4 |
How long before $5 is hit do we think?
Roll on main market listing & all that could/should bring! DYOR |
Is the Index change happening next week? |
Last day at AIM prices! |
Anglo American reject BHP offer . Part of their rationale is the following:With copper representing 30% of Anglo American's total production, and with the benefit of well-sequenced and value-accretive growth options in copper and other structurally attractive products, the Board believes that Anglo American's shareholders stand to benefit from what we expect to be significant value appreciation as the full impact of those trends materialises.Presumably any Copper mining firm is going to enjoy the same value appreciation.....? |
interesting reads, thanks |
Copper breached 10000 USD per tonne now... |
hTTps://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/25/bhp-moves-to-buy-anglo-american-mining-group |
https://www.mining.com/web/blackrock-says-12000-copper-is-needed-to-incentivize-new-mines/ |
Yes pleased to see main listing coming to fruition on Monday. Just need Touro news now!! |
let's hope so |
At the current MCap they would be automatically listed in the FTSE250...which means Trackers and major funds will have to buy them..
Happy Days.
£6 by the end of 2024...or more... |
great news. Should allow more instis to come on board....DYOR |
And off to main market next week! |
agreed Rob
Copper continues to motor along.
Main listing IMO should help increase ATYM's exposure and Instis may want to buy in in size...DYOR |
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