Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[gekks] 24/3/2022 19:38

Great post sls and summed up presentation perfectly. Really haven't seen another CEO like Alberto - straight talking, has an answer to everything, and has not failed to deliver. Great to hear his thoughts on why CU go up.

[slsastin] 24/3/2022 19:29

Excellent presentation and even better Q&A. Lots of discussion of electricity and other costs. Quite detailed info on electricity costs from 2023 onwards.
For 2023 onward they have a) a fix of c.55 compared to current spot price c.200, b) the solar plant for 20% of electricity c) early plans for more solar on other land and wind turbines etc. So energy costs less than in 2021.
2022 is the difficult year. Absolute worst case (current spot price persists all year) is €55m extra costs over the year. But offset by i) favourable exchange rates €-$, ii) copper price YTD about 45c per lb up on last year. Told to expect cost guidance updates in year as energy prices (expected to) drop back down.
My reading of free cash flow and dividend for 2022 is that with such wide bands given it is all to play for. Like 30 50 20 I think they could hold the divi for the year around 30p and stay within stated policy. But a lot of unknowns.
2023 should see results of significant project development on several fronts, and so cu output up, and share price and dividend growth.
A more muted message this time, but the message is that the company remains well undervalued.

[waterloo01] 24/3/2022 18:26

I missed the presentation so interested in any feedback. The debt free nature is also significantly at odds with most miners. Reliable and professional. Remains a core holding and expect it to be there for some years going forward.

[tommyttrades] 24/3/2022 18:01

So CANA price target changed to 460p and still a BUY..
Good results & others will look on enviously at the cash flow

Only just realised the change to TP of 460p was initiated on the 14th

Did anyone get an answer on electric costs per MW?.....I've seen that they're not disclosing amount or price for 2023, assumption is €120 approx

Highlights below......................

24 March 2022

Overall, we believe
the market has already largely absorbed the expected impact of energy cost
inflation. Further, we believe that as additional details emerge during 2022 on
ATYM's growth plans, the market will increasingly begin to attribute value to
these options.

Looking to grow

As evidenced by the acceleration in
exploration spend, the company is now
looking to swiftly progress its options,
and management have spoken about a
potential increase in production towards
70ktpa CuEq as nearby higher grade
polymetallic deposits displace some of
the lower grade material through the
Riotinto plant, and as the E-LIX system is
delivered. At this stage we do not include
any value in our estimates for this growth,
and await more detailed plans from the
company on capex, cost & timing

We still see ATYM as highly cash generative (albeit a little squeezed during 1H22E) (2022E
group EBITDA margins of ~37%), and trading attractively (2022E EV/EBITDA 3.4x, 2023E
2.5x; 2022E FCF Yield 9%, 2023E 18%). This compares to the global peer group trading
at 2022E EV/EBITDA of 4.6x and FCF Yield of 6%. Furthermore, we remind investors of
Atalaya's underappreciated growth options, and newly implemented 30-50% FCF dividend
policy. While volatility in power prices will likely present a challenge during 2022, we also
expect ongoing positive news flow on exploration and project development to be a feature.

[qs99] 24/3/2022 16:15

20,000 at full offer, nice job someone!

[qs99] 24/3/2022 14:19

NED gone, maybe they were the sellers and so they are below 10%? Maybe?

DYOR, good to see results well received so far.

[qs99] 24/3/2022 11:40

thanks 30-50-20, looks a decent analysis.

if it stays at a 6%+ yield, IMO a competitor will take it over...especially as it will keep adding to its cash IMO.

Not sure there are supply or demand side reasons for a fall in copper in the near term (famous last words) so am happy to assume copper holds at a minimum at their last year average.

DYOR, long way to go...

[thirty fifty twenty] 24/3/2022 10:50

hi all

FWIW here is my SIMPLIFIED analysis...
2021
t/o 400m
costs 200m
EBITDA 200m
AISC 2.50

so what would 2022 look like...
t/o 432m ( +8% based on YTD copper, albeit current copper prices higher)
costs 245m ( + 22% based on highest of mgt range AISC 2.50-3.05)
EBITDA 187m
AISC 3.05

divi
this to me is the most interesting.
it is reasonable to assume that profits will be lower next year due to the exceptional energy costs.
so if you are initiating a dividend, based on a policy of 30-50%,
surely one would based the first dividend at a level that would enable it to be maintained the second year?
this year divi is at c.42% of earnings,
so surely that means that the mgt deeply believe that the probable worst case scenario is that profits fall 16% (then they could maintain the divi , which would be at 505 of earnings.
they also have the benefit of now paying the divi in 2 stages.
so i suspect they will be very much intending to pay a maintained level, say 20c at the interims whilst waiting to see how comod prices and energy prices fir in H2.
once they get through this energy price peak then they will be able to pay an increasing divi which will still be a lower % of EPS.
so my overall point is that i feel (assuming copper prices stay > 4),
that a 39.5c divi is SUSTAINABLE.
i'd have thoughts with the CASH as protection,
and the exploration potential,
this is a very attractive inflation protection institutional hold.
at the current price the yield is 7.5% - surely that is too high?
the price could rise to 480p and be on a 6$ yield which is still IMHO, attractive for the comod price risks of copper.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
AYTM is currently in my portfolio

[gekks] 24/3/2022 09:21

Maybe thats a good question for the 11AM presentation today

hxxps://www.investormeetcompany.com/atalaya-mining-plc/register-investor

[king suarez] 24/3/2022 09:09

"The Company has also entered into a new long-term PPA for approximately 31% of the Company's current electricity requirements. Under the 10-year agreement, deliveries will begin in 2023 and pricing is fixed at approximately 80% of the rate realised in 2021."

And:

"For reference, in 2021, the Company's fixed price contract supplied electricity at a rate of €65/MWh including tolls and taxes and accounted for approximately 10% of cash costs."

Am I right in thinking this means they have procured 31% of electricity costs at around €52/Mwh from 2023 onwards, despite current prices being around €200/Mwh? If so, ATYM are only going to suffer from high energy costs for 2022 - with around half being covered by a lower fixed price contract in and the solar plant from 2023 onwards?

Or am I misunderstanding?

[joe say] 24/3/2022 08:27

Without dampening that Gekks so have energy prices!

However these are being addressed with 22% of the company's needs to be provided by the solar plant once built

[mip55] 24/3/2022 08:22

Average price of Cu YTD is 4.5296 . 8% higher than the 4.19 used in the results.

[gekks] 24/3/2022 08:13

These amazing results based on CU average @ $4.19 - has been higher than that for past 6 months

[qs99] 24/3/2022 08:08

c.€670m Market cap, less cash c.€60m let's just say €600m for extra months since y/e

€200m for ease EBITDA

EV/EBITDA of 3 ffs with what at this level IMO will be a 6-7% yield

IMO copper price is likely to stay high, energy cost pressures should diminish this year IMO....

When will it get taken out? It's presentations previously highlighted deals at c.5-6X EV/EBITDA did they not? DYOR

Am in, heavily loaded and holding as not many places you can get the income AND capital upside. DYOR

Cheers
QS99

[waterloo01] 24/3/2022 07:56

Excellent given the price pressures. Divi intended to be half yearly which is good. Solid company and lots of upsides.

[basem1] 24/3/2022 07:55

Any weakness and it is a buy For any newbies I would not chase it at the open

[qs99] 24/3/2022 07:49

John I would point you to one of the links above highlighting supply side issues from one of big banks and likely c.3 year price target of 50% copper price increase....obviously DYOR, but IMO the energy prices are a spike and should "normalise" and ATYM is countering with solar energy. Also exploration etc should help replenish or increase reserves.

c.$200m EBITDA, growing cash pile, its EV/EBITDA is ridiculous still IMO.

Would be nice to see more dividends, but will have to wait for this year's interims and then finals it seems.

DYOR

[johnrxx99] 24/3/2022 07:30

Hardly any increase in production so all down to CU price increase. Fair enough.

To maintain future growth it must develop assets asap and increase production before the CU price bonanza starts to dwindle.

[robmcelf2] 24/3/2022 07:24

Interesting full year results with huge EBITA as expected. Well done Alberto and team. I guess it's key to get a sensible solution to the energy issue and hard for not just ATYM but most energy intensive industries to predict when that will be sorted but hopefully very soon. Cost guidance a bit eye watering but copper prices should remain high. Was a bit surprised the solar farm only gives 22% of total electricity need but maybe wind farm and other measures are called for too. No mention of divi for last 3 months? Let's hope for another great year for ATYM.

[tommyttrades1] 23/3/2022 14:20

Quick reminder
Webinar tmrw 11am

[waterloo01] 23/3/2022 11:46

Great stuff

Atalaya Mining obtains the permit to build the photovoltaic plant that will serve the Riotinto mine (Huelva)

[tommyttrades1] 23/3/2022 11:28

hxxps://amp.europapress.es/andalucia/huelva-00354/noticia-atalaya-mining-obtiene-permiso-construir-planta-fotovoltaica-dara-servicio-mina-riotinto-huelva-20220323115855.html


Also checking through the BOJA ..Nted Valverde has a 30 day consultation period from 10th Feb 22..
Should have news on the AAU next week.

[qs99] 22/3/2022 12:39

Soon be back through £4 ahead of the results? DYOR

[robmcelf2] 21/3/2022 20:49

Thanks TT apparently its been ongoing for a week - hope there's a resolution soon..

[tommyttrades] 21/3/2022 19:58

There are talks this evening regarding & also scheduled for 24/25th if not resolved robmcelf2.

Hauliers want help with fuel costs..Don't we all!