Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[superbobtaylor] 05/2/2018 09:59

You are correct, I have no experience what so ever of QPs. What I wrote came mainly from a representative of the company. Judging from what you have written you don't have many of the answers yourself - so many questions.

To be honest I prefer to look at the audited accounting numbers - how do explain the company making such a good EBITDA if they are being ripped off left, right and centre? If we did not have off takes we would have a large loan that we were paying interest on so swings and round-abouts.

You have been banging on about a Traf takeover for a long while. What are they waiting for? Is it linked to Astor?

SBT

[vanhelsingjr] 05/2/2018 09:19

It is clear that you have not a lot of experience on how QP works.
In the commercial contract seller and buyer fix a qp period, the month of shipment, MAMA, or some months before shipment or after shipment. Miners protect themselves in the futures market if the qp is +MAMA, of course the protection against -MAMA is just impossible. In the present circumstances it seems that the qp price is negative. With Cu prices going up the buyers tried to fix a -MAMA qp.
According to some rumours the qp is fixed by the off takers on the date of shipment between +6MAMA and -6MAMA which is an steal to the miner. And Q3 and Q4 figures for liquidation prices indicated a very probable -6MAMA qp
If the qp conditions are near to the swindle, what else in TC/RC, are they according to usual bench marks or bench marks + crazy figures in the limit of the market for dirty concentrates?
What else for blending charges or ocean freights?
What else with higher charges for impurities or lower figures for premiums ?
The 4% discount in payable copper is standard in the concentrate contracts, it is not an off take charge.
By the way, the concentrate from the expansion will be sold through the off- takes according to the existing contracts. 100% of LOM reserves are included in the contracts. That is the reason why no new investors are coming.
As Liberty must know all these crazy off-takes, that can confirm that Liberty was only instrumental to avoid a forced takeover and has an exit door guaranteed.

[waterloo01] 04/2/2018 14:21

Indeed. Just confirming it as an article was posted that post dated that. Cheers

[saintb] 04/2/2018 14:10

Waterloo. Re.Zinc project.Yes a Red Herring. See our previous discussion around my post # 10263.

[superbobtaylor] 03/2/2018 15:55

Yep. Also the recent correction in most sectors is driven by expectations of increasing inflation. This should mean that the commodities sector should start to get hot.

SBT

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/2/2018 15:29

#SBT, it's puzzled me for years trying to understand the machinations behind it...! if we have a relatively static Copper price for 3/4 months all will be revealed, but with the way demand is increasing as the supply side lags, we could see $3.50/$4.00 Copper when the South American unions dig in and go on strike again.., there are so many wage negotiations and reviews due in 2018...!

[superbobtaylor] 03/2/2018 15:13

#llb The QPs account for much of the discount in a rising market. The price is set for 1 month after shipping. By the time the buyer gets the concentrate, does their assay and it is agreed the settlement can be made with a price lag of up to 4 months. This explains the Q when payable was greater than the Q average.

SBT

[waterloo01] 03/2/2018 12:19

And with a fair wind behind copper.......

Re Zinc mine, it's a bit of a red herring as the recent report isn't correct but refers to the auction where they got some rights, but main rights went to Canadian firm. The article I think highlights what they would have done, if they had won the main concession, rather than what they are about to do. As such back burner in case the situation changes.

Focus is on PRT and Touro although opportunities do present themselves.

[robmcelf2] 03/2/2018 12:14

For me when it comes down to it, investors crave 2 basic factors - great performance and a good level of clarity/transparency on what is to come. I think 2017 was the year to prove great performance and the ability to convert promises to action. That and a rising copper price has helped the value of our investment rise. However, lack of clarity/transparency still holds us back. In 2018 I am hopeful mgmt can get to grips with this Q1 - long awaited resource updates for PRT and Touro. The PRT one has been a very long time coming!!Q2 - resolution one way or the other on Astor claim which has been hanging over us for years as well as 2017 financialsQ3&4 - progress updates on PRT expansion and Touro permitting. Would also be good to get clarity on the zinc project.Let's hope Alberto can also attend a few public events to generate a bit more PR through the year and tell the unfolding story..I really believe that with this clarity, continued great performance and a rising copper price, Atalaya's value will increase rapidly and I wouldn't be surprised to see a share price of £3+ (unless we get a market crash of course)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/2/2018 09:42

That was a better week wasn't it, closing at 190p, and next stop 200p..

Interesting to try to get to grips with the QP's and payable Copper, typically we get -4.5% of the market average price as payable net after Silver credits/discounts/Tc-Rc costs, but on occasion the payable price has been more than the average which has puzzled me for years..!

Onward and upwards.. I can't see sub 200 come ISA time this year .. :o)

[erric] 02/2/2018 19:08

Maybe it’s the three large glasses of Caballie talking but I would just be happy to repeat the January strength of the share price during February and March.
I can’t remember when I was last this optimistic !

[erric] 02/2/2018 19:06

Good points SBT.
I’m afraid you can’t just use logic with Mr O ~ you probably need a “bigger button”

[mronions] 02/2/2018 17:00

Sure past deals. But we should not be giving away future copper.

[superbobtaylor] 02/2/2018 16:25

Onions,

You don't like off take, you don't like equity. Maybe you should not have invested in an AIM miner. Have you seen the terms that most have to agree to when accepting a loan? Most are >10% interest + crazy arrangement charges.

No point moaning retrospectively about the financing now that everything is up and running. When these agreements were made they were a good deal compared to the alternatives. Now we have to honour them. The company is still making very good money.

SBT

[mronions] 02/2/2018 16:13

Val : how do we fix this ?

Next meeting : you need to bring this up with Alberto .... get him to own up.

What is solution ?

We all know off take is c r ap . Was Ok finance solution early doors.


I just hope we don't sell more off take to Trafigura

[superbobtaylor] 02/2/2018 16:12

VHS,

By "Open QP" I mean one that has not yet been settled. The company itself used the term "QPs closed" in the last RNS. I realise that the way that the QP is structured is fixed by a contract. It does mean that in times of rising Cu price the company has to wait to get the full benefit.

I don't dispute that there is also some creamed off the top by the off takers and Astor. I don't believe it adds up to all that much in the grand scheme of things.

The EBITDA figures that the company is putting out are making a lie of the claims you have made that they are not and never will be profitable.

SBT

[shortarm] 02/2/2018 16:11

We've gone from 66p to 188p (current bid) and this loon has tried to talk us out of our shares the whole journey!What a weapon :-)

[vanhelsingjr] 02/2/2018 15:55

If Qp is so bad for miner, we can imagine the other commercial conditions.

[vanhelsingjr] 02/2/2018 15:52

QP is not open is fixed on the contract terms normally as the average of a month before or after shipment. You are mixing QP with final liquidation. You can define a qp as +1 mama which means monthly average of one month after shipment and make the liquidation three months later when both parties agree the analysis after a dispute and an arbitration. The problem here with qp is that according with off-take contracts the qp conditios are very favorable for the off takers penalising more than 595 us$ per ton of copper that is going directly to the pockets of off-takers. We had the same problem on 3Q/17.
That means that we are working with negative QP which is unusual because the miner can not protect its position
An we do not know the rest of the commercial conditions in the off-takes such as TC, RC, Premiums and penalties, PP if any, assumed freights...

[superbobtaylor] 02/2/2018 15:06

QP or not QP that is the question

In the last quarterly update RNS the company gave the following

"Copper prices rose during the quarter with an average realised price per pound of copper payable, including the QPs closed in the period, of $2.87/lb. The average spot copper price during the quarter was $3.09/lb. The realised price of shipments during the quarter excluding QPs was approximately $3.10/lb."

So we have the

A. the prevailing Cu price = $3.09/lb
B. The realised Cu price = $2.87/lb
C. The realised Cu price excluding QPs = $3.10/lb

A and B we have always been given but not C. So what is C and what is a QP? The answer is quotation period. The selling agreement works like this

1.Company delivers copper to the port
2.Company receives 90% of value based on expected payment terms, treatment charges, expected penalties, provisional assays and the prevailing copper price. (we now have an open QP)
3.Copper takes between 1 and 4 months to deliver to smelter depending on which of the 3 buyers the company is shipping to
4.Copper reaches the buyer. Buyer now settles the open QP at the new prevailing copper price. This balance could be positive or negative depending on the movement in the price of copper whilst the QP was open.
6. QP is closed

So I believe that the difference between the prevailing and realised Cu price for a quarter is not down to impurity but open QPs that were opened at lower copper prices early in the quarter. Last year each quarter averaged a higher Cu price than the last.

The realised Cu price excluding QPs is the actual price that they are getting. $3.10/lb.

This is based on correspondence with representatives of the company.

SBT

[lanty33] 02/2/2018 14:24

CuFe is on `ignore` for months!!! l33

[reba] 02/2/2018 13:19

seen the time that 80k went through 16-15pm. why do they hold it back until late this morning. blatant manipulation.?

[shortarm] 02/2/2018 12:49

Oh Cufe - such a joy as always :-)

[waterloo01] 02/2/2018 12:15

I'll tell you what the buyer knows:

Copper is moving into a bull cycle and likely to test $4.50 high over the next couple of years driven by both supply and demand

ATYM has no debt (beyond the contingent Asta $50m)
It is producing and profitable and should do close to $100m EBITDA this year
It has numerous growth prospects, both at PRT, Touro and the Zinc mine/other options
It has a proven and credible management with all ops in Europe, not some dodgy geography.
Broker targets are on the move North with the latest upgrade to TP of £2.90

Should be enough for anyone to make sense of....

[cufes2] 02/2/2018 12:11

What's not to like . . . The ownership structure, the board structure, dilution and cheap shares (sold by Cannacord!) to the major shareholders . . .