Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rougepierre] 25/4/2017 10:32

Here we go again....

I'm bid 143.5 for 25,000....

Must be strong underlying demand...from institutions?

[rougepierre] 25/4/2017 10:10

Copper having a solid run up...brokers targets up...throwing off barrows of cash...but someone seems determined to get out....

Quite bullish that the market has taken 13,000 at 144.5 after a string of sells from 146 to 145...suggests strong underlying demand....

AIMHO as usual...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/4/2017 08:44

Copper having another run up, from a $2.50/lb low, and now $2.58..

Our share price will of course mirror this even closer now we are producing and selling 9000 Tonnes a quarter, and we can watch how the gearing on profits effects the share price .

+10% on Copper = +50% on profits .. :o)

[husbod] 24/4/2017 19:05

Yep doesn't really ring true I have to say.

[cufes2] 24/4/2017 16:48

A simple Google search shows that article has been posted lots of times for many years . . . It's a load of bu88ery b0ll0x IMHO . . .

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2017 16:33

That's a bit better, 150p paid on 4 bargains today.. :o), slowly gathering momentum, if/when we see $2.75 Copper it will pick quickly, $3.00 Copper and we're minting it..!

[rougepierre] 24/4/2017 16:05

7 March Peel Hunt Buy Reiterated 190p when price was 146p

10 March ups target to 195 when price was 141p

Today ups target again to 220p when price was 143p

Meanwhile Cantor Fitzgerald upped from 217 to 239p when price was 146p

A million flies can't be wrong....150p paid this afternoon...onwards and upwards...

[rougepierre] 24/4/2017 15:48

Very helpful Saint...confounds CuFe's Supply/Demand theory... ;-)

You may or may not know that Winterflood is highly dominant in ATYM...

You've only compounded my concern that someone is manipulating this share with the 5,000 sales...and it might be a MM...

Three 5k sales and a 10k sale today already...could be coincidence...one of the 5s and the 10k look like buys but they're sells...

AIMHO as usual...

[saintb] 24/4/2017 14:09

But how do Market Makers work exactly?
A: Note what follows is unofficial but it comes from an informed source -:

To lubricate their transactions, market makers need a supply, or inventory of the securities they support. This can either be real certificates, or via a process called 'stock lending' (don't worry about THAT one yet - it basically means they borrow stock or "pretend" they have it). Once you have an inventory of stock, and the concept of 'spread' (or 'edge'), a marvelous opportunity opens up. The average price at which a market maker accumulates a security and the average price at which he distributes it are going to be different. Add this to the fact that the market maker sets the price tick by tick, and boom! A license to print money. Observe closely, this is a good trick.

I, as a market maker, decide (for no real reason, or perhaps because there has been some trivial news about them) that stock in ABC Corp is my plaything today. I don't have much of an inventory in that particular security, so what do I do? Mark up the price so external holders will sell me some? No. I mark the price DOWN. Oof. Some external parties see this as a buying opportunity, and as I am a market maker, I am obliged to sell them the security at the new, lower price, meaning I am even shorter on that security.

Sounds mad, doesn't it? But it doesn't matter, because I mark the price down again. And again. And I keep on doing it till I hit the stops of external parties who are long, but weak, or the limit orders of people who are short. As a market maker, I know where these stops and limits are. I own the book, after all.

Ordinary Joe Public mostly think the market follows the laws of supply and demand, follows trend lines or fibs etc, which means they all tend to put their stops in similar places ('resistance' anyone? 'support'? That's right, it exists!). This is a game of chicken, really, and YOU will ALWAYS crack before ME (the market maker), because I can take the market to zero, or to the moon. You have to meet a margin call.

So now I am a market maker who has a LOT of supply of ABC Corp, which has fallen significantly in price. Looks like I'm holding a plum, doesn't it? What do I do next? That's right. I mark the price up. And I QUICKLY mark it up to the point at which the current price is ABOVE my average purchase price. So voila. I'm in profit. In a fairly big way. All I need to do now is unload this stock to you over a period of time at a price above my average, and I am rich. You, of course, sold it to me on the way down, and are regretting it because it is probably already way above where you exited (strange isn't it, how the market seems to 'hunt your stops', and then reverse?!) If I do this right (and it is an art form, for which successful brokers get paid multi-million dollar salaries), I create the illusion that the market is totally random, and is being driven by YOU, whereas I am simply a fee paid middleman, facilitating your activities. Even worse, I give you the vague impression that you are actually pretty good at it, and if you can only get your stops a little more accurate, you will stop losing money!

As I mark the price up, external parties start to worry they will miss out on this growth, and begin an ABC Corp buying frenzy, allowing me to unload. Everyone is happy. Most of the investing public are sitting on unrealised (imaginary) assets, while I am converting worthless shares into hard cash.

So, I have made a real, cash profit. You are sitting on an unrealised paper profit. We are all happy. Until I repeat the process and stop you out. Again. Are you getting the picture yet? In fact, once I have built a little momentum in a particular direction (long OR short) I can let you prolong it, settling simply for my spread profit. I know that eventually the run will peter out, and then I can force it the other way, easily dislodging those who took a position too near the end of that particular phase.

Let me paraphrase. When the market is zooming up madly, market makers are actually selling (usually stock they don't own!) in preparation for a subsequent managed fall, during which they can buy it back for less (i.e. make a profit). When it is crashing down, they are actually acquiring stock, in preparation for the process of selling it back to you at a higher price (i.e. make another profit).

Note: Market Makers can be quite devious. I held FEP some time ago and one day the shares started moving up, for no apparent reason. News was due but nothing was reported so investors assumed that perhaps it has leaked. A buying frenzy started, the shares moved ahead by 30%, but in a very short time the share price plummeted and was back to where it opened. I spoke to FEP about this action and was told that one of the market makers had a line of stock to clear. They raised the price to attract buyers, once the line was cleared they dropped it before most buyers could start taking profits. Only very few lucky and fast traders made anything that day, all other buyers paid over the odds for stock they either had to sell at a loss or were locked in to. That's one of the reasons I personally tend to be wary of stocks which are just MM controlled, preferring SETS or SETS/MM stocks, where I can see the order book (unless I'm very confident of a company's fundamentals). That said, I do sometimes hold market maker stocks..

Not my words of course. SaintB

[poleaxe] 24/4/2017 14:04

SBT - not completely out still have a third left and no, i was not a mega holder no where near rp's holding.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2017 13:43

Well spotted Danny111

Company Analyst Rec. Target
BMO Capital Markets Alexander Pearce Outperform 180p
Canaccord Genuity Tim Huff Buy 210p
Cantor Fitzgerald Asa Bridle Buy 239p
FinnCap Martin Potts Buy 209p
Mirabaud Nikolas Toleris Buy 175p
Peel Hunt Peter Mallin-Jones Buy 220p

New analyst average of 206p as they all revise their sums based on Q1 results, and projections FY2017/8/9... :o)

[husbod] 24/4/2017 12:51

Ludicrous official spread again. Makes you wonder whether if there is an mm that is consistently low on the bid that mm might be in cahoots with Mr 5k. I think I've been here too long as I am starting to see conspiracies!

[danny111] 24/4/2017 12:40

Peel Hunt reiterates buy, target raised from 195 to 220.

[sirmoori] 24/4/2017 11:57

hxxps://simplywall.st/news/2017/04/24/is-now-the-right-time-to-buy-atalaya-mining-plc-aimatym/

[rougepierre] 24/4/2017 10:00

GLR moving up on massive increase in copper resources...

[rougepierre] 24/4/2017 09:57

And why would you sell at or below the Bid....? Still suspicious...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2017 09:46

Pretty much what I was expecting SBT, the drip selling could be as few as a handful of PI's with a few 100K shares between them..

I can almost understand people who have held for such a long time, it can and does grind you down, and optimism turns to pessimism, with no reward..

BUT, IMO, it's nuts to sell up after 7/8 years of enduring all the risks, watching every milestone get ticked off, to pull the plug just as we are risk off, complete our maiden profit quarter, and before those financials are on the board.., we need a years worth of results to be measured against..

Time will tell, but each to their own.., and a few nibbles at 146p this morning so far..!

[superbobtaylor] 24/4/2017 09:26

So Poleaxe is out and Broomfinder over on iii has revealed that he/she has also sold up:

"Regardless, sad to say that after more than 8 years, I have almost completed the disposal of my shareholding which once underpinned my AIM portfolio over that period. Probably difficult to justify such an action rationally but I guess frustration and disillusionment with AIM in general and ATYM / EMED in particular is responsible."

No idea what kind of shareholding either of these people had but I think it is stale bulls like this that explain the continual drip selling we are seeing. Hopefully one of the above was a big holder and we see a material drop in the amount of selling.

SBT

[rougepierre] 24/4/2017 09:02

LLB tend to agree...then theres the old saw...buy on rumour, sell on fact....

GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2017 08:06

Shares are simply migrating to the patient, from the impatient.. :o), MM's don't sit on much stock do they..

[rich1e] 24/4/2017 07:31

Lol, if it was that simple someone would have twigged to Majedie topping up to 6M, on the open market, when the share price was sub a quid. But no one did.

[cufes2] 24/4/2017 07:10

There was a lot of demand when the share price was doubling and now there isn't much demand . . . It's quite simple really . . .

[rich1e] 23/4/2017 20:48

So someone comes along when the share price is at 80p and sells 5k of shares daily, for what has now been around 6 months. During that time the share price just about doubles at one point and now sits maybe 75% up, despite the stale bulls, bored holders and derampers. And we are saying that there is no demand, have I got that right?

[acamas] 23/4/2017 19:22

LLB,

The Company is fine it is the Share Price that is the problem. We need share pickers who believe in our future. It has to happen the figures produced will attract buyers just a jam attracts bees imo