Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/4/2017 19:01

May 2015 consolidation price 142.5p, and a big part taken up by our II's, at that point we hadn't even turned a wheel, in fact we only had 2 wheels on the bus then, the other 2 weren't even delivered.., not 1 pound of Copper mined, milled, refined or sold, and not 1 Ounce of Silver recovered or sold either..

Today, 9-10,000 Tonnes of Copper per quarter refined/sold, 150,000/Oz's Silver per quarter sold, $60M EBITDA P/A, no corporation tax to pay for years with tax credits on losses carried forward, 80% of another Copper project the same size under our belt, 6 independent broker notes with 'buys' on us averaging 200p and some people want to believe the fundamentals of the company are worth less than the 2015 placing price..? really..?

Sentiment plays a big part in buying / selling waves of course which effect the SP, and the stale holders we have selling currently, but they will clear 1 day soon, and the fundamentals will shine through, look at the progress of the company as a measure, not the current share price .!

To get noticed in the market space you need some results on the board, backed up by the corresponding financials, and for us that is just around the corner with Q1 mid May, then you need to repeat, and repeat again... over 2017 I'm expecting a gentle trickle up on the share price now we are making money.., when we see 2.75/3.00 Copper things will accelerate hard and fast into 2018..

[shortarm] 23/4/2017 17:08

Yes, they lost patience at 80p......And now they're gutted and trying to talk it back there.......Good luck with that :-P

[waterloo01] 23/4/2017 15:55

Having read across the BB's the issue seems to be sentiment, not much criticism of the way the company is run. Lot's of stale bulls waiting for the next results to either stick or get out. Maybe that's what's needed, it certainly seems to be holding back the share price as Mr 5K seems to be a number of Mr 5ks, all wanting out/sell down.

It certainly was true at 80p when a number lost patience (not surprising after 5+ years for some).

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/4/2017 15:21

And the balance of probability says, that it's more likely to be attractive as an investment, when we are producing and posting reliable, and repeatable profit results, 2017 is important to get some results on the board, to get away from the explorer wanna be miner status, and into the producing profit centre group..

[cufes2] 23/4/2017 14:45

Husbod . . . spot on with post 6702 . . . all this talk of liquidity, MMs and manipulation is nonsense IMHO . . . it's all about supply and demand . . . and there isn't much demand ATM . . .

[poleaxe] 23/4/2017 13:49

Touro will be the same as Atalaya the three amigo's will lend the cash for off-take agreements, they all have seats on the board and are running the company, that is why there will be no main listing.

[waterloo01] 23/4/2017 13:01

It seems to me that it would make sense to go for a main listing when we need the cash for Touro, ie next year. If a divi policy is needed before Touro comes on line, then they could clear Astor at the same time. Also a chance for all these II's who are apparently queuing to get in, to buy a line of stock.

Re MM's, they don't tend to hold stock.

[saintb] 23/4/2017 11:12

Husbod. I agree about the liquidity aspect. Although I have not kept a record, it seems that since around early April the trades, with some exceptions, have shown nothing but sells. In fact I can not remember such a long sequence of sells.

As these are not being bought they must be held by the MM`s, so where is there a liquidity problem. Someone will say that they will be used to fill a big order but that is pure speculation. The facts indicate there is very little interest in this share at the moment.Investors are selling out. Your comment about the bid shareholders selling to help liquidity is also valid.

Move to the Main Market,get rid of the Astor Debt so we can pay dividends, then we can can attract some big investors. Until then only modest share price rises prompted by increased profits and hopefully a strengthening copper price.

All IMHO and hoped to be proved wrong.

[husbod] 22/4/2017 21:26

Personally I'm not convinced lack of liquidity is the problem. The problem currently is lack of demand. If the demand were there the mms would be forced to increase the share price as is always the case. If someone selling 5k a day can suppress the share price it speaks for itself. If the big shareholders sell into the market I reckon that would only depress the share price further as peeps would wonder why they were selling and unless some big buyer is waiting to get in and there is no evidence of this the share price would simply fall.

[poleaxe] 22/4/2017 21:07

Hope it works out for you and especially for the long term holders, i still have a 1/3 of my holding which i will hang onto until the next final results and see how it goes from there.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/4/2017 18:24

Good luck Poleaxe, there are undoubtedly other opportunities on the markets, but for me, now we are a paid up producer, with our 1st quarter on the board, I think the probability for a near term +50% on the share price here is less of a risk than elsewhere..Each to their own strategy, but 2017 is a transformational year for us now we are putting up results...

[poleaxe] 22/4/2017 14:28

Wrong rp, i have sold 2/3 of my holding (not all of the 5k's reba) since the final results, my 4 year gamble on this company is over, i am moving on to fresh fields.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/4/2017 11:50

Interesting posts.., +10% on Copper from here, now we've posted our Q1 results with corresponding financials on the way soon, will be +50% on profits with the gearing from our $2.48 average in Q1.. and the share price is only going 1 way..!

Q1 financials will add the colour we need to the numbers, and FY2017 results are pretty easy to calculate.. even on my abacus..!

Company Analyst Rec. Target
BMO Capital Markets Alexander Pearce Outperform 180p
Canaccord Genuity Tim Huff Buy 210p
Cantor Fitzgerald Asa Bridle Buy 239p
FinnCap Martin Potts Buy 209p
Mirabaud Nikolas Toleris Buy 175p
Peel Hunt Peter Mallin-Jones Buy 195p

[rougepierre] 22/4/2017 11:21

Good posts Acamas/waterloo...

The truth is we don't know, as we also don't know why the share price would rise from 123 to 165 on no real news and not budge on the two most rewarding RNS's in the life of this company....

I suspect, however, that liquidity is still at the heart of the problem...

In the month from early November we had daily volumes of 80k to 1 million...up to then we averaged around 60k a day or less. Since the Annual results on 6 April we're back to that sort of level...

How can IIs build up a meaningful holding (say £250,000 to £500,000 minimum, equivalent to a weeks total buys), when these shares are so tightly held. Apart from anyone cashing out of their placing shares (which is around the current price), only the desperate should be selling now...

And therein lies the problem. The Brokers all make this a strong Buy, with targets from 175 to 239p. The Financial fundamentals and forecasts are very strong, even at this level of copper price. They're writing for Institutional ad well-healed investors...

To buy shares, somebody needs to sell. As the story continues to get better, the MMs may have to slam the price down (not likely), or spike it to get any decent volumes going, which is why I believe when we get significantly above the current price, the big 4 should actively be encouraged to sell a small proportion of their holdings into the market...infinitely preferable to dilution by rights issues we don't need and which will not dilute their percentages...

Indeed, I believe we long term holders may ironically be a microcosm of the problem...are any of you planning to sell...? No of course not...QED

What we can be certain of, however, is that if/when the copper price busts strongly through $2.70, massive leverage will drive the share price of this highly successful production company much higher, with another imminent prospect round the corner...

AIMHO as usual...

[acamas] 22/4/2017 11:13

waterloo01,

Does one therefore assume that there are better companies being peddled by those same brokers soaking up the available investment funds. What else can it be?

[waterloo01] 22/4/2017 10:57

As long as the copper price holds/rises, this should at worst be a safe harbour. Re broker notes, I see Cannacord have moves from speculative buy to buy and upped target to £2.10. One has to wonder who these notes are written for as once out, there is hardly a great deal of buying from brokers clients?

[acamas] 22/4/2017 10:47

rp,


But why no buyers this is an Ugly Duckling that will become a Swan. The world cannot be blind to the fact that we are NOW for the very first time a money making operation and demand of the free float should outstrip Mr 5 or 10k per day. That is small potatoes for a company who could make £38 million this year and perhaps £51 million in 2018. Where are the shrewdies with a nose for profit?

Edit They say never look a gift horse in the mouth and that is true when considering the present value of this company Also we are not long in the tooth ATYM is a new young vibrant company with no debt other than Astor which is in the current price

[acamas] 22/4/2017 10:43

rp,


But why no buyers this is an Ugly Duckling that will become a Swan. The world cannot be blind to the fact that we are NOW for the very first time a money making operation and demand of the free float should outstrip Mr 5 or 10k per day. That is small potatoes for a company who could make £38 million this year and perhaps £51 million in 2018. Where are the shrewdies with a nose for profit?

[sithuk] 22/4/2017 10:29

A full listing made no difference at Tethys.

[rougepierre] 22/4/2017 10:14

Buyers vs sellers Acamas...

This is why we need a Full Listing...soon!

AIMHO as usual...

[acamas] 22/4/2017 09:47

Ben Graham's (The Intelligent Investor)rule of thumb method would place the intrinsic value of ATYM at 236p. I am stumped if I know why it defies sound sense by staying in the 140/160 range

[rougepierre] 21/4/2017 12:38

PS my SML have now more than quadrupled and still going strong...sold 1/4...rest in for free...

There are loads of companies at or near production out there on AIM that are massively undervalued IMHO...

But its all about timing...e.g. STI and AAU languishing.....

[husbod] 21/4/2017 12:24

Well I've had a hopelessly inadequate reply from the AIM regulators in relation to Mr 5k so I've sent them a rather more blunt response.

Will report back but atm they are saying there is nothing wrong with the situation.

[poleaxe] 21/4/2017 12:23

You are quite right rp something strange is going on mr 5k sold at 140 and i sold 4k just after for 141.56.

[rougepierre] 21/4/2017 12:10

O/T but...

In terms of reinvesting the funds released when I sell half, I've been looking for the next ATYM....

I'm now totally convinced by BKY...thanks to whoever recommended GCL instead, (where I'm now down 17% so far).

I've reviewed the fundamentals and, having watched Paul Atherley's (MD of BKY) presentation at the UK Investor Show (see below), I've more than doubled my holding to 30,000...hugely compelling on every front, but just consider one thing...60% of Europe's uranium comes from 3 external sources, mainly PUTIN and Niger....BKY has TOTAL support from Euratom...

Not a recommendation...just sharing info among friends...

hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/28547/video-paul-atherley-md-of-berkeley-energia-presents-at-uk-investor-show-2017

(Something to occupy you on another dull day...)

AIMHO as usual...