Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rougepierre] 01/3/2017 13:19

So I've been through the presentation in detail.

Others are better qualified to comment on the Touro project, although I did pick up that the full production target was 30,000 tonnes per annum...that's gross revenues of almost $200 million per annum at an average copper price of $3/lb...

There are not many pointers otherwise, but there are a few dead giveaways...


Actual Q4 production 8.9 million tonnes at 84.47% recovery


Market copper price in Q3 was $2.17; price achieved was $2.18

At an average copper price of $2.39 for Q4 therefore, we should have achieved $2.40

That gives gross revenues of c$47 million.


Q3 Cash Costs $1.97


If we use these (which I believe are higher than what will have been achieved), the Cash margin is 43 cents, which gives Gross cashflow of $8.44 million, say 7.8m Euros

Less cash administration and exploration costs of, say 4.7m Euros (based on Q3 results), gives net Positive Cashflow of 3.1m Euros in Q4, say £2.7m


Projected Cash Costs 2017/19


Taking pure CASH costs, the total is $1.78 (C1) + 0.04 (Agency & Royalties) + 0.02 (Sustainable Capex), giving a total of $1.84

Assuming an Average ACHIEVED price of $2.76 for 2017 (using an average Market Price of $2.75), this gives a Gross Margin of $0.92 which, at ted's 100m lb pa gives Gross Cashflow of $92 million, i.e. c87m Euros, less admin costs of, say 20m Euros (5m a quarter) gives Net Positive Cashflow (equivalent to EBITDA), of 67m Euros, or c£58m.

That puts us on a prospective P/E ratio of less than THREE times, compared to Atalya's projected 4.2 times for 2017 (in the presentation and presumably using a lower copper price projection).


Final observations


* As mentioned elsewhere, "Alberto is a Galician". Touro is in Galicia...

* There are now SIX Brokers covering ATYM, all at Buy or Strong Buy, with an average target price of 195p (35% above the current price)

* There are also a further SIX Brokers covering ATYM in 'Morning Notes'


What's not to like? Cheap as chips...last bought at 146.50p...copper still over £2.74...

AIMHO as usual...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/3/2017 13:02

Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb average Copper price $2.60, average net margin $0.50/lb, resulting in +$15M net profits with no tax to pay, $4.5M per month going forward @ $2.70 Copper :o)

[reba] 01/3/2017 12:51

Rouge
As clear as mud
LSE have an instant true price indication from what I can see. Nothing like on here where, as even you indicate, they are manipulating the figures to their own ends. This is neither good for the company or the investor.

[rougepierre] 01/3/2017 12:31

reba mate...its not AIM or the Market Makers...

LSE and others use an over simplistic algorithm which divides the Quote by 2 and allocates all those bargains below that price as sales and above as buys...

If you have an issue, it would be my beef that the Quote does not reflect the actual Dealing spread at Normal Market Size (2500).

So, while the Quote is currently 144/149, the actual Dealing spread is 144.6/146.5 in NMS...

So while the recent bargains at 144.9 and 144.999 (less than half of 142+148, i.e. 145 mid) are all listed as Sells on LSE, they are all Buys.

Indeed I believe the MMs are manipulating by dealing at 144.99 against a false quote of 142/148 deliberately so that they look like Sells...

I hope this makes sense?

Cheers mate!

[reba] 01/3/2017 11:55

If thats the case they are declaring false information and and should either get some new equipment which gives a true indication of the current price, or be heavily fined for fraud.

[gcpinc] 01/3/2017 11:45

Reba, I make it 31,976 sells and 18,220 buys !

[shortarm] 01/3/2017 11:35

They're not all sales Reba.

[reba] 01/3/2017 11:18

Never understand Aim 50k sales and bid price goes up
They do what they want seemingly
No logic to numbskulls like me who spposidly support them by buying shares which they control to their own end

[aldermana] 01/3/2017 10:58

I'm very happy with the way this company and the copper price are going and have added another 5k to my holding this morning. I think the management are doing the right thing in moving on to the next project now that PRT is up and running, though it is difficult (for me at least) to put any valuation on it. Just focusing on PRT with the copper price at $2.75, the valuation should be substantially higher assuming the cost projections we are being given are correct - it may take financial results to convince the market of this after the not so great figures from last year.

I'm also very pleased that there is a focus on the search for higher grades at PRT. As someone said in an earlier post, the critical factors for miners are price and grade. Price is improving and better grades would be see ATYM's value increase significantly.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/3/2017 10:47

Yup, it's pretty close ted2..

100M/lbs @ $0.65/lb margin bottom line (with no tax to pay) now where's my log tables for the calc.. :o)

[tedoby2] 01/3/2017 09:58

LLB I think you should think about going back to your 100mlbpa production rate for ease of maths. The official figures were always going to be conservative IMHO.

rouge we'll soon be on an EPS of 75p at this rate and with a soft P/E of say 7 after the Astor ruling we'll .......

I wonder what Lundin Mining think of the new deal? LOL

GLA

[come on] 01/3/2017 09:28

I remember when this went to over 30p old money intra day, what I would give for that now.

[rougepierre] 01/3/2017 09:08

Copper over $2.74...good news from the presentation...generating stacks of cashflow daily...resultscdue in weeks will show profitable 4th quarter and stonking first quarter...

Im full loaded for the next leg of this ride...how long dare people hold back?

The longer we're down here the sharper the rise...tick tock...


AIMHO as usual...

[acamas] 01/3/2017 08:35

I still see a channel of 142p to 172p the breakout happens when we crack 172p bwdik

[waterloo01] 28/2/2017 20:30

I note they mention some focus on drilling on higher grades at PRT as one of the objectives now they are in steady state production.

There are a few flash notes around. From what I've seen they are all positive on Touro and see it as a sensible route to expand. All have buys with one on outperform. Non have changed their target price.

This is a sensible and low risk approach to a significant expansion. I know some like a risk taker in control, and there's plenty to choose from on AIM, but as an investment, give me steady and low risk any day.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/2/2017 17:46

The 1st thing I notice from the new presentation is the PRT run rate in January..
1229 Tonnes per hour, = 10.77 MTPA, well ahead of 9.5MTPA name plate capacity.
Probably not sustainable all year round, but the potential for a +10% 3-4000 Tonnes of Copper right there..

Total shares in issue has gone up by 2M, so the directors have had their options vest, which is probably why we've not seen any director buying..?

New Touro plant feasibility scheme looks to be indentical to the PRT expansion to plant, so a possible repeat order from the same supplier, and discounts..?

[erric] 28/2/2017 17:05

thanks for the heads-up Bob; I have put the link to the latest report in the HEADER marked as FEB2017

[superbobtaylor] 28/2/2017 16:50

New presentation available.

hxxp://atalayamining.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ATYM-Full-version-of-Investor-Presentation-February-2017-v4.pdf

After a quick skim not much new in there re. Rio Tinto. Costs slide is still showing Q3. Estimate CAPEX for Touro at €250M.

SBT