Astrazeneca Share Discussion Threads

[amaretto1] 14/2/2021 10:48

Maybe not this week !!

[arja] 13/2/2021 20:43

i notice this stock is highly geared but might be normal for this type of company,. chart suggests a move t0 7700 minimum target .

[davius] 13/2/2021 11:45

Briefest of mentions in the II closing update yesterday:

"In the FTSE 100, AstraZeneca ended up 1.1% and was up 1.2% for the week after reporting positive annual results on Thursday."

I think the range of new variants and the likely need for regular booster updates (as we have with the flu vaccines) are likely to be a massive long term money spinner for AZN and others. Whilst AZN might not be making money from the initial development and sales, their turnover for 2021 will rise by billions on the back of worldwide distribution. Many countries have yet to vaccinate a single person.

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2021 11:40

Very strong Friday share price performance.

My plan of buying back in lower may not happen!.

[turvart] 13/2/2021 11:37

Great day for AZN Friday! should see a few more going into the 18th being Ex Div.

[philanderer] 13/2/2021 00:42

AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine still restricted, despite WHO assurances


Several European countries have continued to impose age restrictions on their rollouts of the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine, despite WHO’s repeated assurances that it is safe and effective.

The National Immunisation Advisory Committee (NIAC) in the Republic of Ireland have maintained the decision not to offer the vaccine to anyone over the age of 70, while health authorities in Malta have chosen to continue to restrict use of the shot to under-55s only.

Poland, who previously announced that only adults aged 18 to 60 would receive the vaccine, have raised their age limit slightly, but have still chosen not to administer the shot to anyone over 65.

Many more European countries are also restricting the vaccine for older people, including Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Norway, Spain and Sweden.

This news comes despite WHO recommending the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine for all adults over 18.

In a briefing on Wednesday, Dr Alejandro Cravioto, Director at WHO, said the vaccine did not require an upper age limit. In a statement on their website earlier this week, WHO also moved to dispel the results of a small trial that suggested the Oxford University-AstraZeneca shot was ineffective against the South African variant of the virus.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 12/2/2021 16:54

Some of the FTSE traders were calling for a certain closing level - and it happened. This is one of the levers that was pulled.

Nice, all the same...

[davius] 12/2/2021 16:42

Hell of a finish. Delayed reaction to a good set of results presumably.

[triple witcher] 12/2/2021 16:42

Wow great closing auction finished at days high and consistent performance throughout the day with no downturns. It's possible with the price action over this last week that we have seen the bottom re my previous post today

[triple witcher] 12/2/2021 10:12

Correction Spac

[triple witcher] 12/2/2021 10:11

Yes I'm adding on these daily down dips, the share price appears to be contrarian to the daily market trends, down day and we get an share price rise. When the Alexion news broke awhile back we saw a 7% sell off in the Sp which still appears to be suppressing the share price somewhat, despite yesterday's good news. Although any good trading news for companies in this market atm appears to be sold into. Are we seeing a bubble forming in the US as the Soac Frenzy is concerning

[imastu pidgitaswell] 12/2/2021 09:42

Agree with that - nothing confirmed yet, but on the fundamentals I'm happy enough.

I would easily buy a lot more, but unfortunately have a lot tied up in PM miners which are currently struggling, ahead of what will be some pretty staggering results - I'm kind of hoping this doesn't too much until then, when I will rebalance (I hope...)

[triple witcher] 12/2/2021 09:39

Looking at the technicals on the daily chart we seem to be forming a bottom on the share price as the bodies of the last 5 days candles are nicely sat on a possible support level. Early days but this down trend maybe reversing ? Interestingly, and we saw this yesterday, we get quick break downs to this support level and then a bounce. We shall see !

[riskonricky] 11/2/2021 23:29

So buywell is just a forum troll right? I don't get it as so subtle it's not really that funny

[beckers2008] 11/2/2021 22:18

Wow Freddie, that's a wild guess. Don't give the game away, any more clues he may get it!
Moving on...
When AZN increase the price of the vaccine, on the basis of their operating margin at year end 21, imo, a fair increase and it will still be far cheaper than Moderna and Pfizer.
EPS will increase materially and moreover a consistent cash cow for years to come.

[freddie ferret] 11/2/2021 21:20

monte.

As I understand it HMG partially underwrit the costs of vaccine development through the upfront payment for same.

Maybe this was on the basis of non profit.

Only guessing.

[buywell2] 11/2/2021 21:10

Breaking News

Australia at Melbourne Airport there has been an 8Hr window identified for exposure by passengers flying Interstate in Australia at a restaurant in the Airport terminal

This is part of the Holiday Inn cluster which is now growing and is the UK variant



The AZN vaccine is being made in Australia and will be ready for use by the end of this month subject to approval

With the new variants now starting to get a hold in Australia due to inadequate Hotel quarantine measures and aerosol spread concerns , one would imagine that the CMO Mr Kelly will have to play safe and set the ball rolling for the best vaccine that works for the 2 variants of concern

what else can he do ?

[wipo1] 11/2/2021 20:59

The so called wonder blockbuster drug from astrazeneca called seroquel is more of a semi tranqulizer full of sugar that will make people diabetic ,yeah go and take their vaccine.

[buywell2] 11/2/2021 20:30

Will other countries do likewise ?

In Africa where the South African variant may well become the dominant strain one would think so

The Chief Medical Officer in Australia has said that the South African and UK coronavirus strains are becoming dominant around the world

The USA is expected to have the UK variant as the dominant strain by next month

So presumably both are spreading at around double every 10 days

The Brazilian P1 variant carry two other mutations that could seriously impact the effectiveness of the current vaccines and looks set to join the other two becoming the dominant strain in South America again within a month to 2 months max.

If Australia also decides to not use AZN then there is a brewing problem imo as AZN does not appear to have a new version ready till September

By which time at least two to three new variants could be in circulation worldwide based upon recent variants over the last 4 months.

[bluemango] 11/2/2021 20:11

Interesting article, thanks Beckers. Addresses convincingly, the counter-intuitive idea that expanding into the area of rare diseases via the Alexion deal might actually be lucrative - mainly because of the lack of competition and therefore being able to charge a premium for resulting therapies.

If AstraZeneca can use it to, in time, increase the dividend then that would be the icing on the cake.

[beckers2008] 11/2/2021 19:08

For all holders here, a fair article from HL below;

Astra's coronavirus vaccine has made it a household name worldwide. However, having promised not to profit from the vaccine ''during the pandemic'' it is unlikely to move the dial financially in 2021. Instead the real focus this year is the acquisition of Alexion, which if completed in the third quarter of this year as expected, will be the pharmaceutical giant's largest ever deal.

As we see it, the rationale for the deal rests on three key pillars. First, that rare diseases are a fundamentally attractive area of the pharmaceutical market. Second, that increased scale will allow the combined company to deliver cost savings and operate more efficiently. And third that Astra's powerful global distribution network can boost sales of Alexion's treatments quickly.

Rare diseases are, by definition, uncommon. In the past spending millions, perhaps billions, on researching a drug to treat a few tens of thousands of patients worldwide didn't make financial sense. Instead attention focused on treatments for common diseases, like asthma, with patients stretching into the tens of millions. As a result, only around 5% of designated rare diseases have approved treatments.

More recently that attitude has shifted. While major diseases may have large markets, they also attract lots of competition. That means individual drugs companies can end up with a relatively small slice of a large pie. Competition in rare diseases is far lower - a drug company which develops a treatment for a previously unaddressed illness will likely end up serving the entire market and can probably attach a hefty price tag to boot. It's also unlikely a competitor will develop a more effective alternative, since competition is so much lower. Increased interest in the sector means the global rare disease market is forecasted to grow by a low double-digit percentage.

Cost savings are a standard feature of any major merger, and this one is no exception. However, given the price tag and the premium Astra is paying, $500m isn't all that substantial. Instead we think the opportunity to boost Alexion's sales through Astra's distribution network is far more important. Markets outside Europe and the US account for just 20.5% of sales at Alexion, compared to 33.6% at Astra. With Astra's recent growth driven by expansion in emerging markets there's clear opportunity to cross-sell new products in those markets.

Despite adding $17.5bn to Astra's debt pile, the deal is set to strengthen Astra's cash generation. Initially the company has said it will use that to reduce debt (no bad thing in the circumstances). However, management has hinted that over time it could also support an increase in the dividend. Given Astra's had to draw on debt to pay the dividend in recent years, that would be a major event.

The market was initially sceptical about the deal. Cash flow is finally closing the gap with the dividend, and debt reduction looked set to be the order of the day. A big deal, at a massive premium, involving large quantities of debt just wasn't on the to do list. The fact that it adds another ''therapy area'' to Astra's relatively focused business model also muddies a previously pretty streamlined investment case.

However, we think investors should give Astra the benefit of the doubt for now.

For starters the deal isn't quite as expensive as it looks at first glance. Over half of the price is being paid in shares. Prior to the deal's announcement Astra shares were trading a PE ratio of 21.9, whereas Alexion shares traded on 9.4. Astra is buying lowly valued Alexion stock with highly valued stock of its own - the very definition of the stock market motto ''buy low, sell high''.

The core Astra business remains attractive in our view. While the increased level of debt isn't ideal, if management can use the extra cash flow from Alexion to boost the balance sheet over the next few years, that would significantly reduce the risk in the business. Dividend growth would be the icing on the cake - although it's far from guaranteed.

Just as a final point, investors should bear in mind that the deal isn't yet signed and sealed. Regulatory approvals and shareholders approvals might be a formality, but they've tripped deals up in the past. There's also the risk that a rival bidder appears out of the woodwork - given Alexion's relatively modest PE ratio that shouldn't be ruled out.