Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 01/4/2015 17:05

Holding onto the 50MA but could test main support at 490.

[phillis] 17/3/2015 10:25

xd 34p on 16/4

[hooley] 02/3/2015 22:38

Underwriters are now using sophisticated algorithms, vital in allocating risk and capital. Surplus funds are being returned to shareholders in the form of special dividends. Where there is too much capacity rates justify lower exposure. This year won't see a turn for the better in the underwriting cycle. As these businesses generate so much cash, despite depressed profitability, paying the surplus capital back is logical.

[edmundshaw] 02/3/2015 20:23

Dividend payouts are not directly related to a good year, and anyway a good year is partly in the lap of the gods.

I look forward only to long-term well-run business and a reasonable allocation of good luck.

[hooley] 02/3/2015 17:20

So they want to stay independent! Have they had an approach? Rated at 10X last year's earnings they could be attractive to a predator. Catlin had the same stance but they surrendered. Even in a tough year they managed over 13% return on equity. With cash flow of 70p a share Amlin is a money-making business in adversity. I look forward to another big dividend payout in the current year - perhaps 50p in total..

[redips2] 02/3/2015 16:05

I may top up.......see in a day or two .

[cwa1] 02/3/2015 15:50

Been tempted by a little nibble at 494. Probably too early but hopefully decent value over the medium/longer term. Good fortune all.

[edmundshaw] 02/3/2015 10:14

A bit below expectations, but COR of 89% is still pretty decent. The yield including the special is also pretty tasty.

[lab305] 02/3/2015 10:05

Yes .....sub 4.90p

[hooley] 02/3/2015 09:50

There's nothing more telling than the payment of a substantial special dividend. Putting money down always impressed me as an insurance analyst. Cash flow appears to have been good too. Yes, the market remains tough, but they're confident enough to reward shareholders. Look what happened to Lancashire's share price Time to top-up again.

[cwa1] 02/3/2015 09:11

For your delectation:-

Amlin reported a good set of 2014 results, which were slightly better than we had expected but marginally below market consensus (according to Inquiry) at the pre-tax profit level, a lower than we had forecast dividend and an NTAV a few pennies below our expectations. However, the announcement of a 15p special dividend, equivalent to c£75m, should be taken positively by the market and is a timely reminder of Amlin’s focus on capital discipline and its heritage in such return of capital strategies.

Trading at a c70% premium to our 2015F NTAV of 285p (reduced from 292p previously, after allowing for the special dividend) with a c5.6% forward yield (vs 28p), with the special dividend offering a yield of 2.8%, all based on the stock price ex dividends, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on Amlin, highlighting the quality of the group’s strategic positioning across the globe, its underwriting track record and the focus on capital discipline.

Pre-tax profits of £258.7m (2013: £325.7m, SCS: £256m, consensus: £266m) reflected the impact of a c89% COR (2013: 86%, SCS: 89%) and a c2.7% investment return (2013: 3.6%). The COR reflected a higher level of smaller cats and large risk losses, a disappointing result in the UK and lower reserve releases. Within the latter, Amlin increased its reserves for the 2010/11 NZ earthquake by £24m from revised estimates from cedants. Weather events in the US and Europe resulted in losses of c£61m whilst smaller cats and large risk losses amounted to c£92m (2013: ££138m). By division there were good performances from Lloyd’s (COR of 85% vs 84%), Bermuda (79% vs 78%), Amlin Re Europe (100% vs 104%) and Europe (90% vs 96%) although UK (105% vs 104%) was hit by increased weather losses and large losses in the motor account.

The dividend was increased by c4% to 27p (SCS estimate: 27.25p) with a 15p special declared (SCS: 10p). The NTAV increased by c5% in 2014 to 304p (SCS forecast: 311p) with the balance sheet strength improving further in the year. Average rates reduced by c4% ranging from cat rates down c8%. We share Amlin’s enthusiasm for the prospects and synergies that are likely to emerge from the group’s links with the alternative capital player Leadenhall.

[lord gnome] 02/3/2015 09:00

AML has been on my watch list for some time, but these results appear to have missed market expectations by some margin. Forecast pre-tax was £283 millions against £259 millions delivered. I can see further price weakness here despite the special dividend.

[lab305] 02/3/2015 08:39

Poor results. Tried to sweeten them with special dividend.

[deadly] 11/2/2015 09:38

Looking good.
Whole insurance sector strong presently, and with good reason with solid results and strong dividends to come. 6% dividend here.

[tanelorn] 19/12/2014 10:52

Sold out at +6%, still hope to buy back later for next years rally?

[tanelorn] 18/12/2014 14:21

Large volume trading, over 4 million, looking good for in excess of 5% plus. Imo, i'm biased!.

[tanelorn] 17/12/2014 14:38

xl clearly feel there's value, at post week share price..
ed: Strong dollar set to strengthen further during the coming year, should help Amlin, alot!.

[scottishfield] 17/12/2014 14:30

catlin gone.

[tanelorn] 17/12/2014 14:29

Catlin up massively, similar business. I bought 44K a couple of days ago, wish i'd bought more non Life (re)-insurers.

[edmundshaw] 21/11/2014 16:46

Renewal rates are down, and Amlin are persisting with quite a big catastrophe book (where rates have fallen a lot), I imagine that is the main bear point. It certainly made me pause a bit...

On the other hand, rates will rise again after a bad year or when the QE cash lake dries up a bit, they have reduced outward reinsurance, and also investment returns are also a potential upside as well as the newly nearly doubled interest in Leadenhall Capital Partners.

Mixed bag, but a good yield looks likely to be maintained easily. And with 3 benign years on the cat front, a more severe year should be (a) easily assimilable and (b) good for rates.

[speedsgh] 20/11/2014 09:05

Income star sells two insurers but keeps faith in sector -

[blueliner] 20/11/2014 08:51

Amlin: Numis downgrades from 'buy' to 'add' with a target price of 535p.

Amlin: Westhouse Securities retains 'add', JP Morgan retains 'underweight'