Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[red army] 16/3/2018 08:27

Took a sniff at 14p the came back and now getting used to the 14 price. Should move on once holders get used to these levels,

[cyberbub] 16/3/2018 08:21

"Stupid is good"G. Gekko (or should that be D. Trump?)

[ronconomics] 16/3/2018 08:20

The broker's note identifies but doesn't value the optionality. It predates the successful $10m placing and increase in stake of beutong from 40 to 80%. I'm with stupid as they say.

[mr roper] 16/3/2018 08:18

HG, I'm hoping it gets stupid. :0)

[highly geared] 16/3/2018 08:13

20p really is conservative. In 12 months or so, the Beutong PEA , based currently on a resource of 6-8x BKM, has to come in with a PEA North of $1 billion.

When you then factor in BKZ,BKW, BKS, BAROI etc. and the possibility of a larger copper feed continuity to BKM (sitting below the upper BKZ Zinc/silver), the numbers could get 'stupid'.

[mr roper] 16/3/2018 08:05

That really is a superb note from Liberium. The upside from their 20p TP is phenomenal.

[ryry0707] 16/3/2018 07:52

Legend! I've been looking for that.

[jailbird] 16/3/2018 07:51

MT,

That story of your friend is so true.

I have heard that more than once with my colleagues and friends.

Unless I make a few Bob in within the next 5 years, I am afraid hard I may follow the same path as my work is currently stressful because of the hours one works.

We have choices but if only is was as simple as changing jobs.

[cf456] 16/3/2018 07:30

Link to Liberum broker note for those who haven't yet seen ("The Best Kept Secret in Copper")...

[mount teide] 15/3/2018 23:20

Our plan had always been to retire as early as possible while we still had our health, having seen far too many extremely hard working older colleagues retire between 60 and 65 only to last a few years as a result of the very stressful lives they lived as senior executives. Meant sacrificing a lot when we were younger but is now paying a better dividend than any shareholding ever could.

One good friend and former boss worked for the same company from the age of 21 till he retired as CEO at 61. He was always the first person in the London Office in the morning and usually the last to go in the evening and, had a 1.5hr journey in each direction. His job was his life - three months after retirement at just 61 his by then modest health failed completely and his wife was phoning to relay the terrible news and date of the funeral.

[adorling] 15/3/2018 22:48

Having worked over 38 years straight since graduating I am greatful that ARS will allow me to retire 7 years early because I finally learnt the real power to buy and hold a large stake in a Company with trustworthy Management, who show full alignment to shareholder interests, in a market commodity going into deficit and with multiple assets that keep increasing our net asset value. Those who sold recently have missed another 20% upside in a matter of days - costly impatience. So HOLD!

For what it is worth I have just started building a material stake in UOG which also has great management, great assets and just needs patience to create significant wealth. There a very few companies on AIM that can be trusted to create significant personal wealth. GLA!

[horneblower] 15/3/2018 22:47

Mount Teide and others,
Guys, I bow to your superior knowledge. I entirely accept your arguments.
I am just a humble chartist hoping to add to the sum of knowledge.
The fact is that we are extremely lucky to find ourselves with the opportunity to buy a guinea's worth of assets for a groat!
There is only one proviso, which is...time must pass for the value to accrue.
Whether it is two months, twelve months, two years or five, time must pass...and time is a busy entity. Lots can happen. So use it carefully. ☺

[monttim] 15/3/2018 22:29

HG Sounds like you are mapping out a nice life for yourself. Well done I have done the same thing although at 63.
The podcast with PETER - what a mature , factual professional he is showing us he is, no hype or hard sell, just facts , and what amazing facts they are. Congratulations to all our people at ASIAMET..

[highly geared] 15/3/2018 22:13

Oh , you know, timescales always slip! I’ll be bored anyway. Might stay in and live on the dividends!

[okidokicoki] 15/3/2018 21:49

HG why 56 ? you should still be able to retire at 55 by then ?

[chrysalis99] 15/3/2018 21:03

I'm doffing my cap to the expertise being shown by posters on this board. One of the many things about mining stock valuation that I don't understand is that there do seem to be a lot of smallish companies on forward multiples of 2-4, in particular gold miners. One example is AAZ. Are very low multiples a long term feature of investing in the resources sector, or are the minnows due to arbitrage up towards the multiples of the large-caps?

[highly geared] 15/3/2018 20:43

2022 will allow me to consider retiring at 56 if this develops as hoped.Haven’t the resources to accumulate what the big holders have here but at just over 1 million shares, anything over a quid will provide nice options to have.
If , in the next 12 months , Beutong resource is materially expanded, the 80% attributable in ground value to ARS will potentially end up North of $25 billion , making it a world top 5-10 scale copper/gold asset.
If copper starts to move north , the fanciful figures if £3-5 I’ve seen quoted might not be so far fetched. One step at a time but the market is now waking up to what we have and what will be revealed in the coming months and years.

[mount teide] 15/3/2018 20:40

Horneblower - without wishing to criticise your post 12370 or underplay the upside valuation potential of ARS - its potentially huge ($billions) - as a long term shareholder of CAML with a very large portfolio position I would urge a little caution with the figures used in your valuation estimate above.


CAML - current market production/valuation in copper equivalent terms - and relative to sector

The revenue/profit of the Zinc/Lead SASA production on takeover of the SASA mine was calculated by CAML Management to increase total production in Copper equivalent terms from 14,000 tonnes per annum to 34,800 tonnes.

Despite a strong increase in the price of copper in Q4/2017, since the Zinc/Lead SASA mine was acquired last autumn, the price increases of Zinc and Lead in relative terms still outperformed Copper.

Consequently, the valuation in copper equivalent terms today is currently equivalent to 36,400 tonnes per annum, a 160% uplift.

Effectively, as a result of the SASA Mine Acquisition 6 months ago, the CAML business has been transformed from a 14,000 tonne Copper producer at $2.60/lb copper to a 36,400 tonne copper equivalent producer at $3.16/lb.

In reality, the profitability is probably a little better than that because the last available C1 cash cost/lb data for SASA showed a very slightly declining trend while Kounrad's Copper production C1 costs were on a very slightly rising trend, although both are still very much at the lower end of the lowest quartile.

As a result, the business at current metal pricing and forecast production is currently on schedule to generate EBITDA of circa $165m in 2018, up 136% from the 2017 forecast EBITDA of $71m.

EBITDA of circa $165m gives a EPS of circa 62.5c(45.5p) giving a PER of 7.25 and expected dividend of circa 6.5%. Peel Hunt(issued Jan 2018) currently has EPS for 2018 of 38.3p and dividend of 19.31p(6.4%) giving a PER of 8.7 but this is using average metal price assumptions considerably below those averaged by CAML to date in 2018.

The early stage recovery of the global mining industry has seen valuations of most mining companies surge off the lows during 2017 - the 102 US quoted mining companies currently have the following combined PE Ratio's:

18.83 - Forward
52.11 - Trailing

London quoted Copper sector heavyweight Antofagasta currently has a trailing PE ratio of 58.19.

All of which probably explains why CAML management had to run their slide rule over 150 companies before finding one priced to their taste.

And makes CAML's 2018 earnings with a forward PER of 7.25 and trailing of 12.5 look mis-priced by comparison. The CAML valuation is difficult to ignore on a pure value level - and should a decent chunk of the valuation gap fail to close over the next 12 months, will leave the company a prime target for a market that is now experiencing a rising trend of M&A activity.


AIMHO/DYOR

[pyglet] 15/3/2018 20:26

Horneblower. Many thanks for the calculations. Holding until retirement

[okidokicoki] 15/3/2018 20:26

Top post HG have to say this alcohol tastes very nice tonight . 1 day rodney

[librayang0925] 15/3/2018 20:20

If 65p by this year, I could not image it will not go to 1 pound after all in production

[highly geared] 15/3/2018 20:13

Quite a few new posters so have copied my post of a while back , below. Interestingly , a key focus in 2018 is to expand Beutong to its full resource potential. The implications are truly mind blowing from a shareholder perspective:


Highly Geared - 03 Mar 2018 - 20:26:55 - 11964 of 12377 Asiamet Resources Ltd {ARS} (was Kalimantan Gold,{KLG)) - ARS
Posted this just over 3 months ago. Timing of Beutong PEA a bit optimistic. Useful personal reminder and perhaps useful if any new posters/lurkers have joined recently. The exciting thing( not that we need any more) is that forthcoming drilling is aimed at enhancing Beutong:

‘Just been having a look at the Beutong numbers in a bit more detail:

Measured and indicated at 0.3% cut off:
- 1241 millions lbs copper at say $3.50 = $ 4.343 billion
- 373,000 oz gold at $1250 = $466 million
- 5.698million oz silver at $18 = $102 million
- 20 million lbs Moly at $7 = $150 milllion

Total in the ground gross value = $ 5.054 billion

Including inferred resource, it gets very interesting ( albeit lots more drilling needed to the East and West Porphyryâ̈́4;™s:

- 4091 million lbs copper = $14.318billion
- 1,746,000 oz gold = $2.183 billion
- 14.9 million oz silver = $268 million
- 113 million lbs Moly = $791 million

Total gross in the ground value = $ 17.56 billion

Grand total north of $22 billion.
Based on CPR and 30,000 metres of drilling to date

Ars currently have 40% and can convert to 80% subject to certain project development commitments (Iâ€T82;m assuming they’ll take it to 80%).

Taking a middle position on conversion of inferred , that gives an in the ground value of c $14 billion. But, based on long term copper projections and assuming earliest production is c. 2022 , copper is likely to be higher, ditto gold/silver.

Capex will be considerable but working right back to PEA , assuming they do further drilling to move some inferred up to indicated, when comparing a likely doubling/ tripling of the copper inventory ( when compared to BKM) and including the precious metals and Moly, it,s hard to envisage a PEA NPV lower than $1 billlion based on an 80% interest.

Assuming the production licence lands in the next 2 weeks , they should be able to generate a PEA by summer 2018 and a BFS by 2020. Assuming the market ascribes say 25% of the NPV , this should add say $250 million to the share price over the next 9 months. That will be c 26p/ share.Add BKM post BFS finance, say 30p and 5-10p spec value for BKS, BKW, BKS, then itâ€T82;s possible to see a path to a share price of c. 65p by summer 2018.

If copper continues to rise then all bets are off ( on the upside).
All IMO, DYOR’.

[librayang0925] 15/3/2018 20:13

Could someone put a link to the header document please