Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 21/11/2018 19:06

Sigh... only the FOSATB is keeping me from the Sell button... I've found over the years that the time of maximum stress (for me at least) is when a reversal usually comes shortly afterwards...The problem here is that although the investment case is compelling, there's always that niggle, especially in a ropey country like Indonesia, that there is 'something we've not thought of'...Does anyone with their ear to the ground know of any industry risk or Indo nationwide political risk appearing anywhere? (Apart from elections).

[adorling] 21/11/2018 18:51

I hope we see some drill results very soon as on a day ci]opper goes up 1.03% to $2.83 we drop 4% - der???

[tomcorvid] 21/11/2018 17:06

It’s worth noting that whilst the PoC hasn’t made new highs recently it has made progressively higher lows (as has gold) since mid August. I’m not a chartist but I believe it is called a bullish rising wedge or some such. I don’t know what it means but I thought it was noteworthy.

[dorset64] 21/11/2018 15:25

Nick Rubens21 Nov '18 - 14:42 - 18148 of 18152
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Quite ironic really that you've done no research whatsoever, but enough to establish a tin pot student protest prior to local elections was denounced by the BoD's by official channels, but failed to see one single other RNS until today???

Really??

[mount teide] 21/11/2018 15:18

NR - 'Do you know what the protest was about and yes I am researching, that's why I posted here, you can all save me alot of time.'

Local politics in the run up to regional elections. Post the elections - most of what was put up online has been removed.

Research? Speak to the company's investor relations officer - he is very approachable, open and holds over 2m shares himself.

Additionally, this thread over the last few years is a rich source of high quality research, well worth spending a few hours going through to sort the wheat from the chaff.

[mount teide] 21/11/2018 14:59

Duplicate post

[zho] 21/11/2018 14:58

MT,

Interesting - thanks

[nick rubens] 21/11/2018 14:42

Dorse64

The big fall came on that day. I've just seen the BFS RNS issued the same day. The directors claim it's value enhancing, though extending the time table etc and the market didn't like it. Ok I get it, if it's that straight forward.

"or you're trying pointlessly to create fear"

Yes that would be pointless, I agree. If you are all well researched and correct then there is nothing to fear at all.

Whatever the protest was about it triggered a response to assure the market that all is in full compliance.

Do you know what the protest was about and yes I am researching, that's why I posted here, you can all save me alot of time.

[horneblower] 21/11/2018 14:41

It is quite impossible to predict the short term copper supply and demand dynamic. Longer term, like a year or two, I am certain that the growth in demand due to the rise of electric vehicles (both from electric motors and the power infrastructure) will outstrip supply and raise prices.

Sorry to keep saying this but this is a long-term investment with a time span of many years before the major benefits materialise. This is a get rich slow scheme so please don't whine if you don't get rich quick or lose money in the short-term.

[zho] 21/11/2018 14:26

"Copper output in Chile, the world’s top producer of the metal, is expected to increase 2% by the end of the year and continue to grow steadily during 2019 due to stronger performance from major mines, upgrades to existing operations, and lower risk of labour strikes."

... but ...

"Mining companies operating in the country have seen production costs rise as they need to dig deeper and process larger amounts of rock to obtain the same amount of copper they used to a decade ago."

[arhaych] 21/11/2018 14:24

If Trump and Xi don't kiss and make-up at the upcoming G20 meet, when do you think copper will start to move back to $3/lb? I keep reading people opining that the market is getting very tight, but the price seems to be stubbornly stuck in the 2.70 - 2.80 range.

[dorset64] 21/11/2018 14:20

Nice, not being rude but either you really have done no research whatsoever, or you're trying pointlessly to create fear in this share going by your last few posts.

So the big fall, according to you was all down to a one hour student protest as opposed to anything whatsoever to do with the BFS, the BoD's reverse on releasing it and thus changing their plan to drill for up to another 6 months.

Do some research Nick for your own benefit.

[nick rubens] 21/11/2018 14:05

Cheers Mount Teide. I'm still reading here with interest.

There seems to have been a sudden big fall around mid October at the time the company issued a statement in regards to protests in the Nagan Raya area? Then mentioned that they are operating in full compliance of the rules etc.

Anyone know what the protests were about and have they gone away?

[mount teide] 21/11/2018 13:34

Continue to add - another 150k this morning - while short term sentiment may have changed as a result of the 4-6 month BKM BFS deferral - nothing has changed with respect to the assets since the $7.2m II and Director placing at 11p earlier this year.

[mount teide] 21/11/2018 13:27

NR - According to the latest World Bank report, Indonesia has an infrastructure gap of US$1.5 trillion compared to other emerging economies.

While the Indonesian government aims to invest US$327 billion in infrastructure during President Jokowi’s first term (2014–19), it only plans to spend US$15 billion from the state budget and around US$45.7 billion from state-owned enterprises. The rest is coming from other sources, including private sector and overseas funding.

Notably, the Jokowi administration has since 2015 repeatedly approached China for FDI in relation to Beijing’s pledge to spend $trillions on infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This has since seen China become Indonesia's No. 2 investor.

Since industrial metals are an important component of this infrastructure development plan, it is no surprise that Chinese companies are now at the forefront of mining sector M&A activity/investment in the country.

China becomes Indonesia's No. 2 investor with infrastructure drive - Nikkei Asian Review

[tomcorvid] 21/11/2018 13:02

Further to MT’s post hxxp://blog.gorozen.com/blog/how-the-electrification-of-india-may-impact-copper-prices

Too long to post but essentially Indian development means that copper use per head needs to rise dramatically to sustain industrialisation and economic growth. Currently India’s development is around where China was in the late 90’s and below the curve in Copper usage.

[nick rubens] 21/11/2018 12:54

Cheers for the feedback guys. This share price decline is quiet dramatic for a company so highly spoken of.

I hope you are all correct and especially for Dorse64 that there is nothing far more sinister or troublesome brewing underneath. You seem to have this company as a dead cert that it will achieve a working copper mine in Indonesia and benefit the current shareholders.

I hope you are right.

[mount teide] 21/11/2018 11:58

Joshua Hall's Junior Copper Mining Sector Index of 15 small caps with assets likely to be of acquisitive interest to large and mid cap miners looks like a prescient piece of research at this stage of the copper market cycle - Ernst and Young's new 'Mergers, Acquisitions and Capital Raising’ report on the industry comes to a similar conclusion.


Mining, metals industry to see spike in M&A activity in 2019 - mining Weekly



'Global mining and metals deal appetite remained subdued in the third quarter amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, advisory firm EY notes in its latest ‘Mergers, Acquisitions and Capital Raising’ report.

However, EY’s global capital confidence barometer (CCB) survey indicated the sector could be poised for a rebound.

EY said 58% of global mining executive respondents intend to pursue mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the next 12 months, compared with 46% across all measured sectors.

While third-quarter deal value rose by 25% Q on Q to $16.8-billion, and volume was up 15% (115 deals), caution prevailed as mining companies continued to focus on balance sheet stability and returning cash to shareholders.

However, as markets continue to stabilise, gold miner Barrick Gold’s announcement in the third quarter that it will acquire Randgold for $6.5-billion could influence other industry players to seek volume growth through M&A.

EY global mining and metals transactions leader Lee Downham said, in the third quarter of 2018, mining and metals companies continued to tread carefully in their approach to dealmaking and capital allocation.

“Geopolitical instability, including ongoing trade turbulence, has compounded the sector’s focus on optionality across existing projects and a reluctance to execute higher-risk capital investments.

“But this approach will eventually have to shift more toward an investment-led strategy across the industry, with the potential for acquisitive growth.”

This sentiment is reflected by the CCB, which finds that the sector could be primed for a significant rise in M&A activity over the next year.

Seventy-four per cent of global mining and metals executives say they expect the M&A market to improve in the next 12 months, up from 53% last year, and 52% say their M&A pipeline will increase in the coming 12 months, compared with 34% a year ago.

Sixty per cent also expect to see an increase in the number of completed deals, almost double last year’s response rate (34%).

More than a quarter of CCB respondents (27%) expect to see an increase in cross-sector M&A driven by technology and digital.

Downham noted that while EY has seen some companies looking toward measured growth through joint ventures and strategic partnerships, and there has been a notable acceleration in battery metals deals into the second half of the year, dealmaking has remained sluggish.

The latest CCB indicated that caution could now be lifting, and 2019 may well see the sector enter a new phase, marked by acquisitive growth and bolder dealmaking. '

[mrpiggy] 21/11/2018 11:47

Nick, Tony Manini has spent most of his working life operating in Indonesia and wouldn’t have spent his precious time and money on the projects in our portfolio if it was a non starter so no concern there.
The share price decline is due to the delay in BKM BFS coupled with falling copper prices due to the US China trade wars and to a small part the companys mismanagement of the situation.

[dorset64] 21/11/2018 11:46

Nick Rubens21 Nov '18 - 11:38 - 18135 of 18135

'What is actually the problem here that has brought huge doubt and share price decline?

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Nick Rubens, even an ounce of research, understanding and brain cells would tell you that that the current share price decline is anything to do with Indonesia per se.

One assumes you have read up on the area, the contracts, the BoD's background plus other huge players in the area before posting such utter garbage?

Take a look at the shambles of the BFS, the current market place, the current price of copper and the wider stock market sentiment, and you'd get a far better understanding of why we are where we are right now.

[nick rubens] 21/11/2018 11:38

Ia anyone concerned about operating in Indonesia in general?

Didn't Churchill Mining lose their mine license here after years of spending millions prospecting and so forth proving a resource and then at the last moment it was swept from under them?

What is actually the problem here that has brought huge doubt and share price decline?

[mount teide] 21/11/2018 11:28

India becomes net importer of refined copper

Domestic copper production to plunge 61% this fiscal



'With the permanent closure of Tuticorin smelter and shutdown at Hindalco's smelters, copper production may decline further in this fiscal, said Care Ratings report

Domestic copper production likely to fall by 60.7% this fiscal (FY19)

331 kt – production of refined copper seen by end of this fiscal

157 kt – domestic copper production in the first half of this fiscal

843 kt – total copper production in 2017-18

530-535 kt – estimated domestic demand for copper this fiscal

The drop in domestic production during H1-FY19 has led to the domino effect of a sharp increase in the country’s imports and fall in the exports thus turning India into a net importer of refined copper," Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Care Ratings'

With the copper market on schedule to record a modest deficit for a second year, the globally important Grasberg mine due to cut production by 330,000 tonnes per annum for around 18 months from Jan 2019 as it transitions to underground mining and, global stock levels close to decade lows the copper market fundamentals continue to look highly compelling over a 2-3 year outlook considering that demand is forecast to continue growing at circa 2%-3% a year.

With Grasberg's huge planned cut in copper production this means the industry has got to add some 850,000 tonnes to 1,100,000 tonnes of additional production in 2019(that's 2-3 new mines capable of getting into the World's top ten by production - good luck with that!).

[dorset64] 21/11/2018 10:09

Cyberbub, the point to note is not what your average is today, but your average in a couple of years time when the share price should be well over 40p+.

With that in mind, averaging up or down at circa 5p is not an issue at all.

[cyberbub] 20/11/2018 19:34

LOL piggy :-)