Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[snickerdog] 18/10/2018 23:34

Deadlines get missed and in projects everywhere suffer from expansion of scope. Let them get in with the work and let's have that copper deficit too

[snickerdog] 18/10/2018 23:33

Exactly, the market shouldn't give a sh1t even if they do need to raise at some point (and all juniors do) it's most probable that they have cash enough to get on with things until the end of the year at least. All their last raises have been well with little or no discount and backed by some major institutions too. Manini put $360k into the last raise himself and that itself could probably pay for a lion's share of the new work. Let's go back to KSK whilst they market Beutong - the market loves KSK and drilling into BKM went pretty well last time round with 100m holes from surface at 1% I remember

[mount teide] 18/10/2018 22:51

cc - 'Imho I think it is going to take some pretty astounding news to get this back on track.'

A return to $3.00 - $3.35 Copper will probably do far more for the financing prospects of BKM than moving more inferred resource to indicated - markets today are very much driven by short term sentiment as evidenced by the US copper miners this year finding the new project finance door open in the spring at $3.00 - $3.20 copper only to swing back shut again by late summer.

According to latest industry research it will take a copper price of $3.25 - $3.50 to trigger a material level of new Copper production development projects by the majors (outside of Africa).

Perversely, the longer the copper price stays below $3 the better the medium/long term prospects of Asia Met(and the rest of the industry) are likely to be, as a result of further delaying much needed investment in new production in an industry currently forecast to be in deficit for a second year and where demand is forecast to grow at a 3-5% annual clip over the next five years.

Robert Friedland the billionaire founder and executive chairman of Ivanhoe Mines, said earlier this year (when the copper price was $3.20), with respect to the continued dearth of capital investment by the majors since 2013 that unless the situation changes and quickly; “You're going to need a telescope to see copper prices in 2021,”.

What has happened since is that copper has fallen back to circa $2.75 and the majors have mostly kept their hands firmly in their pockets. There are no new mines of global scale due to enter production for three years from 2019 - the first time in over two decades such a situation has occurred.

[cyberbub] 18/10/2018 22:50

In the Voxmarkets talk today, Manini said that the extra drilling at BKM would take only a few weeks, with no mention of needing to raise money first. I wonder if we're being too pessimistic about the company's financial position? I'm not quite sure how much a 20-drill programme would cost? They can't be very deep if they can do that many in a few weeks. I assume a drill rig and crew are already on site or nearby. Even if they have to raise $5M that's barely 7% dilution at the current share price - bloody annoying but not disastrous.

[neo26] 18/10/2018 22:49

Roi govt are nasty people to do business, i warned you previously indo is tough place to do business.We got burnt heavily in chl cos indonesia is corrupt to the core.

[temmujin] 18/10/2018 22:40

the wise ones bought near 4.30pm...watch it bounce tomoro

[mr roper] 18/10/2018 22:27

No point looking in for 6mths though. A) The bod have a lot of work to and b) they need cash to do it, which they don’t have. Wonder if jpm will be happy to pick up another 8% for peanuts...while the rest of us have been treated like monkeys.

[cyberbub] 18/10/2018 22:17

I agree today's plunge has the hallmarks of panic, in a 'risk off' environment, plus trailing stop losses being taken out (exacerbated by the foolish mid-session RNS releases), plus certainly some shorters looking at the market cap and having a go.

[cyberbub] 18/10/2018 21:24

I have to say that another thing that was poor was releasing the pair of 'not great news' RNSes mid-session. There was nothing unexpected about them (unlike the 3rd RNS), and if there is some clash of timezones why can't they prepare it the day before and release it at 07:00 UK time like any other company? Or even 16:45 on the same day?

[mount teide] 18/10/2018 21:15

Been out most of the day - so still getting fully up to speed.

What is interesting is that the average price of management share option means they will have worked for the last three years for virtually nothing - so they will have plenty of incentive to make 2019 more productive than 2018.

View today's announcement as a temporary setback and believe over a 2-3 year outlook the investment prospect remains compelling as I believe copper market fundamentals will see the copper price average consistently above $3.25 over the medium term - added modestly to my position today.

[jon1962] 18/10/2018 21:10

I totally agree mate re Indonesia and if ever we needed a lesson look at Churchill mining! I Just thank the guy for that post I saw regarding the social media post.I owe the guy a few pints of his choice and a slap up meal.I sold immediately losing a small amount less than 2K instead of over 12K pounds!

[charles clore] 18/10/2018 20:57

Imho I think it is going to take some pretty astounding news to get this back on track. I do think it will recover though, but it will be a long time before it gets back to 10p. I think it should gravitate to around 8p after a bit of a Tango with 5/6p.

[mount teide] 18/10/2018 20:54

BKM

"The Company has given extensive consideration to the delivered study inputs and the impact of undertaking additional work at this late stage in the feasibility study, however the opportunity to capture substantial additional value while further de-risking the project is considered to potentially have material positive impacts on project financing outcomes. So whilst from a time perspective this additional work extends the timeframe of the Feasibility Study, we are firmly of the opinion that all stakeholders will significantly benefit from the impact of this additional work as we move into the project financing stage."

'34% is in inferred category, maybe the financier want a chunk of this moving up to indicated and the overall resource expanding to replace a chunk of the recategorised inferred to get the o/a up toward 1 billion lb copper and a notional increased mine life. Perhaps with only 73% within the pit area and around a third of this inferred, they need to move more to indicated to de risk the mine plan.'


Notwithstanding the management's poor communications performance today and with hindsight the lead up to today's announcement - reading between the lines - the BKM project economics has clearly been impacted by the recent correction/short term outlook for copper pricing (a number of US copper miners looking to develop new projects this year with copper resources in the range of 0.3%-0.4% reported finding a previous open finance door close on them after the copper price fell back below $3).

In the event that the finance environment may be more favourable in 6 months time - carrying out a limited programme of in-fill drilling on BKM to move more resource from inferred to indicated would potentially optimise the project financing possibilities and financial returns.

Alternatively, in the event the copper pricing / project financing environment remains challenging the infill drilling programme should provide an insurance policy to prospective financiers by significantly enhancing the robustness of the project economics(currently described as commercial) at the current copper price.


Beutong:

"The 2018 drilling program at Beutong has consistently met or exceeded expectations and provided greatly improved definition across the Beutong East and Beutong West porphyry deposits. The two systems remain open in multiple directions with recent drilling suggesting they may coalesce at depth.

Strong copper, gold and molybdenum grades and the presence of highly mineralised magnetite bearing breccia clasts proximal to a large magnetic feature modelled below current drilling are very exciting as such features are often associated with the high grade cores of world class porphyry systems such as Newcrest's Wafi-Golpu and Solgold's Cascabel.

As such Asiamet is evaluating various options including partnering to test this deeper potential and more rapidly progress the development of Beutong in the near term."

Again, reading between the lines, the further delay to BKM together with the 2018 Beutong drilling results suggesting the prospect of substantial potential outside and below the present resource envelope has convinced the management that going it alone and financing the further evaluation and potential development of Beutong from cash flow generated by BKM is no longer the optimum way to proceed. Consequently, as they allude to in today's announcement - finding a partner to test the deeper potential and fast track the development of Beutong is now the most likely strategy going forward.

[highly geared] 18/10/2018 20:50

Mount Teide, what do you make of today or are you out?

[highly geared] 18/10/2018 20:47

Ayesha, it will probably fall a little further + you will see the thread infested with the usual one liners about what a bad share it is, political risks, Churchill mining etc etc as people play on fear and try and drive the price down.

I think you should turn the screen off for a few weeks , it may hang around in the 5’s for a while until such point that bottom fishers buy for a bounce or a credibility restoring RNS comes out.

The assets are there so if ARS cannot finance , a bigger player will at the right price. Come what may, the collective assets are worth more than 10p so just keep that and the projected copper d3ficit in mind and in 12 months, this willlook better or we’ll be bought.

[junior21] 18/10/2018 20:41

HG you beat me to it with the point I was trying to make!

[junior21] 18/10/2018 20:37

Some thoughtful posts this evening in what has been a very disappointing day. This is scant consolation for most of us but the board will also be suffering with today’s fall as a significant number of their options will no longer be in the money. For me this is some reassurance that our interests remain aligned.

[ayesha4] 18/10/2018 20:35

HG

where to tomorrow iyho with these?

[highly geared] 18/10/2018 20:32

From 24/3/17 RNS:

Mr. Manini now holds a total of 27,223,277
(3.83%) of the common shares in the Company of which 156,902 are held
directly, 10,772,117 common shares are held by Antman Holding Pty Ltd
and 16,294,258 common shares are held by A.J.M. Investco Pty Ltd.

So, his shares have gone down in value by over £1 million today.
I think Tony and Peter will be highly motivated to get this back on track.

[mrpiggy] 18/10/2018 20:17

Very well said Dorset64, I think you summed up virtually all investors feelings on here. Let's hope they dont bring out an Asiamet advent calendar this year unless they have Tony Manini as the Grinch for Christmas Day with Peter Bird as his trusty dog!

[plasybryn] 18/10/2018 20:01

So are Steve & Toni together at Canube Copper?

[tektonik] 18/10/2018 20:00

HG - this is exactly my thinking now I've had a bit more time to reflect. The whole process has laboured for a reason and I think this is fundamentally due to the unwillingness of financiers to get on board with the current economics of the BKM project. Economics which on paper aren't bad but are maybe somewhat risked? Thanks for sharing the resource profile once more - I feel the c.34% inferred resource is viewed as c.34% risk in the current climate for those providing the funds - far too high for the potential money that would be lent. Has the net feedback from all prospective lenders ultimately concluded at discomfort with this figure - drill and mitigate please?

I'm confident the resource is more than there but there's just too many questions that need answers now, especially as BKM BFS and finance were the real key milestones to be hit for a junior explorer transitioning to a producer. I've just listened to the podcast again and I have to agree with Dorset that it was quite poorly delivered and are very stuttered and startled. I do understand the need to communicate to shareholders when the share price has tanked so I don't really attribute blame too heavily for this. Hindsight is a wonderful thing afterall.

Fundamentally, have the team been stretched across too many targets and deposits? Beutong being a large distraction from what should have been the primary focus and effort of the organisation? An irony that they have an embarrassment of riches without a clear long term strategy (that includes contingency), or potent enough focus to thoroughly progress these targets? For the first time in my investment I do feel as if they've failed us here and not just because the share price has dropped almost 40%. These are questions I and certainly others here have been asking for a while.

I tend to try and be positive as much as possible - the resource is still in the ground, the team, whilst letting their shareholders down on this occasion, still have a vast amount of experience and have likely faced much worse situations, we head ever closer to greater copper deficits and higher copper prices. Let's finish blue tomorrow and enjoy our weekends. Good luck all!