Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[monttim] 05/3/2018 09:49

Highly geared.
I think Options 2 or 3 both an indivual 45% Chauncey.
Option 1 a 10% chance.
Option 4 a zero chancE.
Tony, Peter Bird, Steve Hughes, the Board of Directors, the entire management team = Do you really think all the time, care and expertise being drilled into this company in creating such a fabulous group of people would be anything but to bring the sum total or at least a mix of the very important components together in a ground breaking company maker. These guys are in it for the long haul. They want to hang their hats onto making a real deal huge company. Great timing, great assets, great team, it’s all there. These guys want to be remembered with the complete package, the whole project, nothing less than the big multi billion company that is mentioned so often.

[knobbly] 05/3/2018 07:59

Adorling. I wish I had enough to make a plan worthwhile! :)

[bluerunner] 04/3/2018 22:56

As well as global infrastructure and EVs, another indicator of copper demand that I will be using as a BUY signal is ‘suspicious persons near or around light poles’:

[mattjwhity] 04/3/2018 22:24

Great summary on why invest in Copper now...

[bluerunner] 04/3/2018 19:20

Many thanks for the replies earlier on. So many articles / news items that point strongly to the positive and timely aspects of this sector.I'm off here now until the next RNS (which might well be tomorrow with the way things appear to develop here).

[highly geared] 04/3/2018 18:49

Matt; interesting reference to ‘copper powering the green revolution’. Looks like world copper demand is underpinned for the next decade...

[knobbly] 04/3/2018 13:28

¯_(⊙ʊ87;⊙)_/¯

Adorling, thought you had suggested you were going to be selling-out of ARS from 17p?

[adorling] 04/3/2018 11:48

Bluerunner - TM said he would not accept less than 32-35p in Dec 2016 when we just had BKM. With BKZ as a stand alone asset and Beutong now licensed I cannot see our Board selling out now for less than 50-60p now if an approach was made or less than 200p post BKM producing 25,000T copper pa and results of Beutong PEA being published.

It is one hell of a challenge to have the maturity to just hold this amazing share for the next few years but this is what is needed to make life changing fortunes & future life decisions. I always remember reading Buffetology many years back where Warren talks about if you could only ever own 1 stock for the rest of your life what would it be? - ARS is that stock for me!

[highly geared] 04/3/2018 11:44

Bluerunner; I’d say ‘not a chance’...

I can’t see them wanting to accept anything less than 50p-70p/share and will be disappointed if a cheap bid is accepted. I believe the BOD are set on building a $ billion company over the next 3-5 years.

[highly geared] 04/3/2018 11:40

We really don’t want any acquirers until this time next year when we’ll have BKM finance and mine construction well advanced, know much more about whether BK is part of a bigger system ‘ Beutong 2’, know more about how big Baroi might be.

More importantly, we should have PEA for Beutong and confirmation around metallurgy ( any acquirer will want to know principles of mining/recoveries and costs). This enables us and the market to ascribe a value for the portfolio.

4 potential scenarios:

1. ARS finance BKM, get into production, then use cash flow to fund starter pit at Beutong and develop ‘ slowly’ with first production probably 2023-25.
2. ARS finance BKM , JV Beutong for a ‘ free carry’ or lower finance commitment on diluted ownership.
3. ARS finance BKM , sell Beutong outright ( mid 2019), special dividend, use BKM revenues to develop KSK (Baroi).
4. ARS accept offer for entire portfolio, mid 2019 onward.

The language used by TM recently about someone needing deep pockets to develop Beutong suggests to me they will look to sell / JV it once sufficient data is available to optimise value for an early stage purchase by a major.

[bluerunner] 04/3/2018 11:30

I'm hoping monttim is correct and that shareholders - long-standing and more recent - get to realise something approaching the full potential of their holding.This is obviously a hot sector currently but I'm hoping to be here for at least a tripling of the price from here. (I tend to add on the way up). That could take a year or two as existing holders sell into the rise and take profit.Speculative question of the day - If a buyer offered the management team 20p now (Liberum's target price) how likely would the management be to accept that at the moment?

[monttim] 04/3/2018 02:45

Hi Mount,
Knowing most of our Board and senior management and their ambitions, I feel very confident any of us that want to be ARS holders even in a few years and into production , WILL STILL BE HOLDERS. A mix of partners and finance, however ASIAMET will still be ours.
Just my opinion.
Cheers.

[mount teide] 04/3/2018 01:19

HG 'ARS will be a sitting duck for a T/O later this year/2019.'
Agree - as mentioned in a previous post, the Copper market fundamentals make it increasingly unlikely that we will be ARS shareholders when BKM generates first production.

'EV revolution; copper required may offset any general economic slowdown?'

Sustainable energy is this century’s most pressing issue. More and more, sustainable energy systems are being installed throughout the World, driven by diminishing costs and government incentives.

Consequently, the EV and Renewable Energy Sectors will likely be the key demand drivers for additional copper supply over the decade ahead (A Coal Thermal or Gas Fired Power Station needs 1 tonne of Copper/MegaWatt to build whereas Solar PV 4 Tonnes and Wind 3.8 tonnes). China is currently carrying out a huge programme of renewable energy development to replace high pollution generating coal fired plants.

With Global investment and productivity growth on a 2 year rising trend, and Global GDP forecasts revised up to 3.9% for 2018 and 2019, provided inflation doesn't take off(which would probably still be good for industrial metals in the short term), I'm increasingly of the view that the risk of a general economic slowdown before the end of next year is unlikely.

'Graph showing supply v demand for the next 15 years; we are right in the deficit sweet spot aren’t we, especially if Beutong is taken through to production!'

Agree - by any objective analysis the timing and market fundamentals to bring BKM and Beutong through to production is the stuff of mining sector investment dreams - the absolute optimum timing in a 15 - 20 year cyclical market (CAML in 2010 could not have picked a worse time to bring Kounrad into production - the extremely low C1 Cash cost being their passport to success in a copper price environment where prices fell for another 6 years before finding a bottom).

Remain firmly of the view the Copper market fundamentals(in deficit, stocks near decade lows, investment in new production at record lows and majors increasingly awash with cash), will mean that ARS's high grade, world class copper assets at BKM/BKZ and Beutong will be unlikely to see first production with any of us as shareholders unless, Beutong is developed as a joint venture with a much larger operator.

AIMHO/DYOR

[lauders] 04/3/2018 01:14

Thank you for your feedback on the "correct company" point MT and for the links in the following post. I have looked at CAML but do not hold as investing funds are limited as I have a property purchase underway and need to be sensible in planning for the associated costs looming. Once it is out of the way I will look at my portfolio again and see what to do with regards to my holdings. ARS, HCM and BVXP will remain without question.

[tomcorvid] 03/3/2018 23:56

MT, thank you for your valuable information. I think for metals I would mention Uranium as well. It is still bumping along its bottom and although catalysts are starting to shift the story, there is a little to go before the inflection of supply/demand balance changes the current narrative, therefore providing those of us who are into time arbitrage a chance to take up positions.

HG, thank you for the breakdown. While the value might well be there (and then some!) it is going to take a while for the general market to catch onto the commodity bull story as these things take a while to filter into the consciousness, Only then will true value be realised. I am expecting that any approach towards $4/lb is what it will take.

I would also add that as Mr Roper pointed out there are two JORCs due in May and for me really, although I very much welcome the BKZ resource (anyone care to guess the tonnage?! I'm in a fiver at 2mt) it is the underlying copper structure that fascinates me. There is a poster on LSE called Updo (he has been following the story for about 20years) who has recently summarised the structural mineralised corridor at KSK and I am going to go out on limb and say that what is yet to be uncovered there has a chance of being more than one Beutong tonnage equivalent within KSK, also from surface, also with considerable Au credit. I'm probably wrong and living in a fantasy world of my own making but if I'm not, it isn't unreasonable to be thinking in terms of $10bn market cap in the next 5-10years. We would need a significant partner, of course, and there will be fund raises along the way but it is my intent in to keep up with the dilution as we go as long as my resources allow. I am going to be brave with this one as long as the fundamental story doesn't change.

[mr roper] 03/3/2018 23:17

Bidding can start at 1bn quid please.

[highly geared] 03/3/2018 23:12

MT ; good articles.

Copper;

Based on the comments, ARS will be a sitting duck for a T/O later this year/2019.
EV revolution; copper required may offset any general economic slowdown?
Graph showing supply v demand for the next 15 years; we are right in the deficit sweet spot aren’t we, especially if Beutong is taken through to production!

[mount teide] 03/3/2018 22:33

James Catlin has published a long list of high quality Shipping Sector research articles over many years on the Seeking Alpha website - recently, he expanded his area of research to include Macro/Commodities.

Two recent research articles on the outlook for the Copper and Zinc Markets are, like his shipping sector articles, of a very high standard and well worth a read for those invested in the sector or considering an investment

Can The Copper Bull Keep Running? - 29 Jan 2018



Zinc Macro Outlook - 26 Feb 2018

[highly geared] 03/3/2018 21:41

Thanks for the kind words guys.

If the BKZ deep copper is part of a bigger feeder structure and continuous to BKM and Baroi scout drilling reinforces and enhances the historic results, we’ll have multiple ‘company makers’ on our hands. I think the phrase ‘embarrassment of riches’is apt...