Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 02/8/2017 17:31

1550! thanks bracke :(

[bracke] 02/8/2017 17:23

fenners

What do you make of the cash tender offer for notes? (See news above).

Buying back debt?

[discodave4] 02/8/2017 16:14

Fenners,DiscoDave4 - 20 Jul 2017 - 12:23 - 54076 of 54137 - 0Still cannot find any financials for CRS.However, based on a couple of recent UK acquisitions (Liontrack Hire and Mather & Stuart), their purchase price came to twice their respective annual revenues. So whilst a bit of a finger in the air, the revenue for CRS could be circa £89m pa.Both in the same ball park on revenue for CRS.DD

[bracke] 02/8/2017 14:09

The share price has once again dropped back to support at 1630.

If it holds then another attempt at 1660. If it fails a fall to 1580 and probably 1550.

[2flatpack] 02/8/2017 13:54

Too much money, Don't know what to do with it.
Has to be a good sign.
Hope others see it that way as I've jumped in again.
cheers

[ianwwwhite] 02/8/2017 10:42

My understanding is that A-Plant represents 13% of Ashtead Group revenue

[fenners66] 02/8/2017 10:25

Seen similar articles , but UK really is very little of AHT business nowadays.

[bracke] 02/8/2017 10:24

No messing this morning. Sellers straight in to send it back in two hours to where it was two days ago. 1660 resists.

[ianwwwhite] 02/8/2017 10:18

fenners66

Nice one, thanks

[fenners66] 02/8/2017 09:55

Ok for what its worth:-


Lets say they bought CRS on a similar multiple to the current AHT share price.

That makes the $275m something like 2.6% of AHT

Using that assumption they should be buying 2.6% of turnover - About £82m of turnover

Interestingly if I use the AHT accounts turnover by employee and multiply by 400 ( the number we have from the acquisition news ) that would give us a turnover of around £93m.

I think this actually re-enforces the lower assumption as the smaller standalone business probably has a higher relative admin staff number.

Pre-tax profit is about 24% so £82m x 24% = c£20m

We trade on a multiple of say 16.3 at the moment so that's worth £321m and we used cash of £211 to get it.

I anticipate once they have been integrated there will be savings and efficiencies and a profit increase.

It may well need more cash to improve the life of the plant ( if you are selling a business you sweat the assets and generate cash and profit at the expense of capex for a few years to make it look good). There may even have been a negative impact with their customers if they had to put up with old plant.

Overall though bolt on profitable acquisitions are probably a good way of diverting cash to build the share price long term.

[discodave4] 02/8/2017 09:27

So CRS completed, but no numbers given.DD

[bracke] 01/8/2017 17:20

Low volume suggests sellers have backed off today and left the field clear for buyers.

The share price now rests on 1660 s/r.

[2flatpack] 01/8/2017 15:15

Thanks bracke
Cheers

[bracke] 01/8/2017 15:01

2flat

The ascending ML has done its job when the share price reached it. Sometimes the share price will track along the ML or maybe drop away a small amount and the come back to it.

The descending ML is now in play. If it drops below the blue LP the probability is that it will reach the red ML.

If it dropped below the blue LP I would be looking for evidence that a rise was about to commence and draw a new ascending PF

The share price has moved some way towards the red ML so we can consider that it was a valid PF to draw. Bear in mind that if a valid PF is drawn there is an 80% probability that the share price will reach the ML BUT 20% PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL NOT.

If the PF is valid but the share price fails to reach it there are rules concerning what will follow. I will deal with that as and when.

[2flatpack] 01/8/2017 14:21

Thanks bracke much appreciated.
as for understanding, that is a few steps further on. I usually understand your explanations eer! I think.
As I understand it the ascending ML has some validation by the reaction of the share price on reaching it.
Would it lose credibility if it went below the LP.
Conversely is there any validity yet in the descending ML.
Cheers

[bracke] 01/8/2017 14:20

1660 gap filled.

[bracke] 01/8/2017 12:01

Good day 2flat

1 I presume you mean Median Line?

The ascending ML was reached on 20 July at 1705. A descending ML was drawn when the share price started to drop away from the ascending ML.

The share price has not reached the descending ML nor has it reached the LP of the ascending PF.

After much trial and error I have managed to copy and paste the chart!!

Hopefully you will be able to understand it.



2 The trend is in transition so not yet possible to provide a projected level for 07 Sept.

3 I have not added on pullbacks.


As I type I note that the share price is moving back towards 1760 so maybe a gap fill and it is an s/r zone.

[2flatpack] 01/8/2017 10:43

bracke
I would appreciate if you would answer me three questions.
What is the level of your ML today.
What is its projected level on 07.09.17.
Plus one personal question!! just to check how your rehabilitation is going.
Have you been adding on pull backs.
Cheers

[optomistic] 31/7/2017 19:07

Bracke, have you any plans to sell these? Even just with or without hind site 1700+ would have been a good exit point...

[bracke] 31/7/2017 17:40

To-days candle is a Gravestone Doji.

Putting aside the name the term is used when the opening and closing price is the same or very similar, both are at the bottom of the range (little or no lower wick) and a long upper wick. It represents an attempt to take the share price up which failed and suggests that sellers are in control and may continue with their efforts.

The low volume indicates that neither buyers or sellers were in earnest, perhaps end of month 'housekeeping'.

The share price is at an s/r zone which buyers may want to defend. If it fails 1620 is probably the last 'hope' before it continues down to the mid 15 hundred.

[bracke] 31/7/2017 11:17

Good day 2flat

The share price had its usual morning rise but insufficient to fill the gap to 1660.

[2flatpack] 31/7/2017 11:11

morning bracke
my last order to open was triggered just above the gap fill at 1634.
No plans of further action yet .
Just wait and see .
With Ex date just over 2 week away and Results just over 5 weeks it should be interesting.
cheers

[discodave4] 30/7/2017 16:45

Possibly get an update on the CRS acquisition this week, hopefully with some numbers included this time.DD