Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 14/7/2016 13:04

SDY market cap £168m and seems to be turning the corner, expects to beat year end forecasts.Given how switched on the BoD are just don't think this buyback was one of their better moves.......but wtfdik!.On the flip side at least they are doing it when the PE is a lot lower than its average.DD

[bracke] 14/7/2016 12:51

If UK, a previous target; Lavendon (LVD) is capitalised at £209 million. I suspect that they would have to pay more than that.

But I take your point.

I am wary of share buybacks. Seems to suggest that they do not know what to do with the money so go for an easy option. The success of buybacks is usually difficult to assess.

[discodave4] 14/7/2016 12:08

Hello bracke,Another acquisition.DD

[bracke] 14/7/2016 11:43

Good day Disco

"In other words they could have invested £200m elsewhere and had a greater return than 3%"
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Where else?

[discodave4] 14/7/2016 11:04

Just been working out the equivalent rate of return for the share buyback programme.If my workings are correct it could enhance eps by about 3.5% but the equivalent rate of return is poor at about 3%. In other words they could have invested £200m elsewhere and had a greater return than 3% and thus improved eps by more than the share buyback.Irrespective of the daily share price movement they just seem to be buying 100k shares each day (apart from on two occasions). Surely the time to have started the buyback was when the share price was at its lowest (Feb) and keep buying on the dips as much as is possible - isn't that what a normal investor in shares would try to do?.DD

[invisage] 11/7/2016 20:42

Historically AHT trades at a PE of 23, but forecast PE ratio at 13. The Shares are only up 3% this year despite a 13% drop in the £ vs $.

AHT makes 85% of revenue from the US, brokers forecasting profit of 700m next year, with a high ROCE at 18.5% AHT is very cheap.

Unless earnings are about to collapse, this is going much higher.

US obviously doing very well, big beat in jobs last Friday.

[bracke] 11/7/2016 18:47

Good day 2flat

1 Gaps - Yes there are a few to the 'South' and two to the 'North' one of which at 1119 was filled to day. The next is at 1144.

2 WAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!! - Please try to maintain your decorum. This is respectable thread for the refined and genteel investor.

[2flatpack] 11/7/2016 17:39

Evening brack.
I've just two comments to make,
1. What no gaps
2. WAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!!
Cheers

[bracke] 11/7/2016 15:41

Two options now.

1 Drop back to test 1090.

2 Aim for last swing high at 1155. Bear in mind that there may be a retrace first.

[invisage] 11/7/2016 12:57

This stocks quality. Broken out!

[zho] 10/7/2016 11:36

I wish Ashtead would bid for Lavendon again and put me out of my misery ;-(

[grahamite2] 10/7/2016 10:06

Over 52,000 posts since I last looked in here - it was a penny share when I followed it.

Anyway you might like this, especially when you see the august company it's in:

[bracke] 08/7/2016 14:28

It's had the retrace and moved back up to ML resistance. Second attempt.

[broadwood] 08/7/2016 13:50

Massive jump in US payrolls.

So no likely Deutsche worries of slowdowns on the horizon.

Time to admit defeat?

[discodave4] 05/7/2016 20:04

Thanks bracke.DD

[bracke] 05/7/2016 13:51

I posted recently that the share price was approaching a number of likely resistances. It managed to break above a couple of what I considered the lesser ones and momentarily appeared to break above the two I considered the more difficult but was unable to hold above them.

The first is a trend line across the highs of June and December 2015. The second and in my view the more difficult is the Median Line when applying the December 2015 high and the February 2016 low.

In short the share price needs to break and hold above 1090 and then continue the move up to test the December 2015 high at 1156.

A drop and hold below 1050 is likely to result in a trip to test 1000.

[2flatpack] 05/7/2016 09:02

Move over will you.
I'll join you behind the couch.
All my short term investments have become long term unfortunatly .
Cheers

[kilgallp] 05/7/2016 08:40

No problem DD.

[discodave4] 04/7/2016 22:21

Apologies kilgallp didn't see your earlier post regarding Berenberg:'Buy', Target price (TP) upgrade to 1200Equipment rental company LSE:AHT:Ashtead generates 92% of operating profit from its Sunbelt brand in the US, so it's protected from domestic pressures. Earnings should get a boost from the weaker pound anyway, with foreign exchange tailwinds adding around 6% and 8% to earnings this year and next; this will be slightly offset by weakness in the UK business. A meaty order book underpins future operating performance.Ashtead has America's economic strength to thank for its impressive growth over the last five years, with the US division driving a revenue compound annual growth rate of 22% - it's expected to keep growing fast. Calming of capital expenditure outflows should also propel a step-up in free-cash flow generation - around £300 million is pencilled in for 2017.With earnings forecasts upgraded by 5% for 2017 and 2018, Berenberg has upgraded its target price to 1,200p. The stock trades on 9.6 times 2017 earnings, a 25% discount to peers.DD

[discodave4] 04/7/2016 21:30

Exane reiterate Neutral 1050Berenberg reiterate Buy up from 1150 to 1200Credit Suisse reiterate Underperform 770 (must be in bed with DB!).DD

[room_101] 04/7/2016 16:29

Doesn't seem like it in Oxfordshire, building sites wherever you look.That was a good directors buy today.. must be confident about things going forward.

[bracke] 04/7/2016 15:46

"I am forced to short the ftse to make ends meet."
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Desperate times lead to desperate measures!

Just as well that most of AHT's profit comes from the US. UK construction big drop.

[2flatpack] 04/7/2016 15:39

afternoon bracke.
Looking at my portfolio my squib has certainly been drowned .
The only bright spot is AHT.
I am forced to short the ftse to make ends meet.
The ftse 100 is up in sterling but I think down in euro or dollar terms.
As long as you are holidaying behind the couch I suppose thats O.K.
AS ever I live in hope.
Cheers

[bracke] 04/7/2016 15:15

Good day 2flat

"Is every one on holiday or just hiding behind the couch."
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Perhaps we are waiting for the Brexit penny to drop.

Given the dire predictions for a Brexit majority prior to the referendum so far it's been a damp sqib and even a shot in the arm for FTSE.

[2flatpack] 04/7/2016 15:07

We are getting mixed signals from our shorters.
You would think they'd had the same hymn book.
From Short Interest Trader.
.
.
AQR Capital Management, LLC 0.71% ↑ 0.02% 2016-06-29
Blue Ridge Capital, L.L.C 1.12% ↑ 0.08% 2016-02-10
CPMG, Inc 1.54% ↑ 0.12% 2016-05-18
Eminence Capital, LP 0.69% ↓ -0.04% 2016-06-29
Total 4.06% .
.
.
Is every one on holiday or just hiding behind the couch .
Cheers